2018
DOI: 10.1007/s00190-018-1158-7
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Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere

Abstract: Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and auto-regressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and ∆UT1 for up to 90 days into the future. Based on hindcast experiments covering the years 2016 and 2017, a bestperforming parametrization was elaborated. At forecast horizons of 10 days, remaining prediction errors are 3.02 mas and 5.39 mas for PM and ∆UT1, respe… Show more

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Cited by 51 publications
(47 citation statements)
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“…latest configuration as applied for the prediction of Earth rotation excitations (Dill et al 2018). Over the oceans, we utilize the Max-Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM; Jungclaus et al 2013) in its configuration for the latest release 06 of AOD1B (Dobslaw et al 2017).…”
Section: E Va L Uat I N G T H E I T S G -G R a C E 2 0 1 6 Da I Ly K A L M A N S M O O T H E R S O L U T I O N Smentioning
confidence: 99%
“…latest configuration as applied for the prediction of Earth rotation excitations (Dill et al 2018). Over the oceans, we utilize the Max-Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM; Jungclaus et al 2013) in its configuration for the latest release 06 of AOD1B (Dobslaw et al 2017).…”
Section: E Va L Uat I N G T H E I T S G -G R a C E 2 0 1 6 Da I Ly K A L M A N S M O O T H E R S O L U T I O N Smentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Moreover, mass redistributions in the ocean cause perturbations to the angular momentum of Earth's fluid envelope, which manifests in orientation changes of the solid Earth with respect to inertial space (e.g., Ponte & Ali, 2002). Forecasts of these short‐term ocean angular momentum variations are particularly relevant for operational activities like real‐time spacecraft navigation or tracking of deep‐space objects (Dill et al., 2019). Fluctuations of ocean bottom pressure ( p b ), equivalent to the anomalous mass in the column of fluid above, and its spatial gradients are also of interest to physical oceanographers.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…An example is the torques on the rotating Earth derived from global integrations of the angular momentum variations in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations available in the public domain by Centre of Global Geophysical Fluids (GGFC). [ 12–17 ] Observation noises and numerical rounding errors are generic sources to limit the smoothness of the derived forcing. Here, we ignore the errors and discuss the physical smoothness.…”
Section: Physical Smoothness Of the Applied Forcing: A Case Study Witmentioning
confidence: 99%