Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data-driven Bayesian network

Fan, Shiqi; Blanco‐Davis, Eduardo; Yang, Zaili; Zhang, Jinfen; Yan, Xinping

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2020.107070

Cited by 210 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…By not explaining the dangerous points before the operation and by not placing safety measures in place, the operator will lack situational awareness of their area of operation and the risk of accidents. At the same time, paralysis in the operator's mind and taking things for granted will inevitably lead to accidents and even loss of life [71].…”

Section: Discussion Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applications of FFTA–HFACS for Analyzing Human and Organization Factors in Electric Misoperation Accidents

Lin

Huang

2021

Applied Sciences

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Human and organizational factors (HOFs) play an important role in electric misoperation accidents (EMAs), but research into the reliability of human factors is still in its infancy in the field of EMAs, and further investment in research is urgently required. To analyze the HOFs in EMAs, a hybrid method including the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) was applied to EMAs for the first time in the paper. HFACS is used to identify and classify the HOFs with 135 accidents, reorganized as basic events (BEs), intermediate events (IEs), and top event (TE), and develop the architecture of fault tree (FT). Fuzzy aggregation is employed to address experts’ expressions and obtain the failure probabilities of the BEs and the minimal cut sets (MCSs) of the FT. The approach generates BEs failure probabilities without reliance on quantitative historical failure statistics of EMAs via qualitative records processing. The FFTA–HFACS model is applied for quantitative analysis of the probability of failure of electrical mishaps and the interaction between accident risk factors. It can assist professionals in deciding whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and assist in knowledgeable decision-making around the electric operation and maintenance process. Finally, applying this hybrid method to EMAs, the results show that the probability of an EMAs is 1.0410 × 10−2, which is a risk level that is likely to occur and must be controlled. Two of the most important risk factors are habitual violations and supervisory violation; a combination of risk factors of inadequate work preparation and paralysis, and irresponsibility on the part of employees are also frequent errors.

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Section: Discussion Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applications of FFTA–HFACS for Analyzing Human and Organization Factors in Electric Misoperation Accidents

Lin

Huang

2021

Applied Sciences

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“…Recently, some scholars have attempted to explore the application of big data analysis to maritime shipping risk assessment. The combination of Bayesian networks and other analysis techniques, such as fuzzy theory [19] and data-driven methods [20], is one of the popular methodologies. In addition, artificial intelligence [21] and neural networks [22] have also been successfully applied to evaluate the risk exerted on the maritime shipping operations.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The detailed information for the representative indicators associated with the aforementioned maritime shipping safety-impacting factor hierarchy is summarized in Table 2. The aspect of individuals mainly refers to the human performances or behaviors that affect the safety level of maritime shipping operations, which has been widely discussed and analyzed in a large amount of literature [19,20,47]. Based on these existing studies, we characterized the individual aspect by three groups of indicators, i.e., personal competency, psychological and physiological factors, as well as the cognitive process.…”

Section: Concept Of Safety-i and Safety-iimentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management

Qiao

Liu

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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In contrast to the conventional safety management principle, namely, safety-I, which focuses on “what goes wrong”, a new-born safety philosophy (safety-II) inspires people to investigate “how and why things go right”. In the present study, the cognitive difference and correlation between safety-I and safety-II in the maritime shipping industry are explored and investigated. For this purpose, a questionnaire is administered to survey seafarers and maritime experts, and semi-structured interviews are conducted to collect original data associated with safety-I and safety-II. Then, the data from seafarers and maritime experts are further processed by empirical statistical methods and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methodology. The results show that impacting factors associated with individual aspects are usually accepted as dominant with respect to views of safety-I, while organizational factors are more influential for safety-II, which is essential to developing an organizational resilience capacity. Based on the findings and discussions, potential safety countermeasures that integrate safety-I and safety-II are proposed in this article. The present study discusses the new-born safety-II perspective to elucidate the safety issues associated with maritime shipping operations, which can be seen as the main innovation of this work.

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“…Francesca et al [1] proposed a simplified risk-based decision model for verifying the seismic performance of infrastructure components up to the operational limit state. Fan et al [26] analyzed the potential disaster risk factors during the operation and maintenance of integrated corridors and then constructed a Bayesian network-based disaster risk assessment model. However, the risk and safety issues that occurred during the operation and maintenance of the pipeline gallery are relatively complicated due to the collection of pipelines and the closed environment, and the corresponding experience is often lacking, resulting in improper handling.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Risk Path of the Pipeline Corridor Based on System Dynamics

Han

Jiang

Wang

et al. 2021

Shock and Vibration

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Under the background of China’s continuous promotion of urbanization, urban underground integrated pipeline corridor has become an inevitable trend of future urban integrated management. After the completion of the pipeline corridor, how to effectively manage its risks in operation and maintenance management has become a topic at this stage. In this paper, through the combination of the classical AHP method and DSM method, based on a large number of literature studies, the risk relationship system of the integrated pipe corridor is constructed. AnyLogic software is applied to simulate the system dynamics, analyze the impact of dynamic changes of each risk factor on the risk accident of the integrated pipe corridor, carry out uncertainty reasoning from multiple perspectives, and realize the evaluation and analysis of the accident risk of the integrated pipe corridor. The results of the study could provide targeted support tools for integrated pipeline corridor risk operation and maintenance management.

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Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data-driven Bayesian network

Cited by 210 publications

References 49 publications

Applications of FFTA–HFACS for Analyzing Human and Organization Factors in Electric Misoperation Accidents

Applications of FFTA–HFACS for Analyzing Human and Organization Factors in Electric Misoperation Accidents

Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management

Analysis of the Risk Path of the Pipeline Corridor Based on System Dynamics

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