Increase of Labor Force of Older Age – Challenge for the Czech Republic in Next Decades

Fiala, Tomáš; Langhamrová, Jitka

doi:10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00330-x

Cited by 2 publications

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“…In next decades, the Czech Republic will face the challenge of relatively rapid increase of labor force older than 50 years of age. (Fiala, Langhamrová, 2014) and it will be necessary to ensure economic participation of these persons. Real financial burden of the pension system depends thus not only on the value of the adjusted old-age dependency ratio but also on the gender and age population structure, on employment rates, on the average amount and distribution of incomes and pensions, on inflation rate and pension adjustment in time valorization and of course on the rate of economic growths.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pension Age Which Would Guarantee Stabilization of the Old Age Dependency Ratio

Fiala¹,

Langhamrová²

2017

Applications of Mathematics and Statistics in Economics

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pension Age Which Would Guarantee Stabilization of the Old Age Dependency Ratio

Fiala¹,

Langhamrová²

2017

Applications of Mathematics and Statistics in Economics

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“…Pokud bude schválen návrh zákona předpokládající zastavení růstu důchodového věku na hranici 65 let, bude počet osob v produktivním věku po roce nižší než hodnoty udávané v projekci. Bude navíc důležité, zda vznikne dostatek vhodných pracovních příležitostí pro rostoucí počet osob nad 50 let (zejména žen), které ještě nebudou mít nárok na starobní důchod (Fiala, Langhamrová, 2014), aby zvyšování důchodového věku znamenalo u většiny osob rovněž skutečné prodloužení doby jejich ekonomické aktivity.…”

Section: Závěrunclassified

Impact of Foreign Migration on the Development of the Size and Age Structure of the Population of the Czech Republic

Fiala¹,

Langhamrová²

2017

Politicka ekonomie

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Impact of Foreign Migration on the Development of the Size and Age Structure of the Population of the Czech RepublicAs of 2015, the yearly number of live births in the Czech Republic will probably be lower than the number of deaths. Latest population forecast, presented by the Czech Statistical Office in 2013, shows that without permanent international immigration the population of the Czech Republic would decrease. The paper presents the results of our own population forecast, which takes into account the recent fertility increase observed in 2013-2015, and the replacement migration concept, i.e. the estimate of the amount of annual net migration needed to stabilize the Czech Republic population size at its current size (10.6 million of inhabitants) until the end of this century. Three different scenarios of future fertility levels are assumed. We also compare our results with the population forecast without migration and with constant net migration. Additionally to the population forecast itself, we present future trends in the productive, post-productive and oldage population, and compute old-age dependency ratios. We define the upper threshold of the productive age in agreement with the increasing retirement age in the Czech Republic. Based on our findings, we conclude that immigration is not able to stop the population ageing process as such, but can partially eliminate its consequences. Possible opportunities, as well as migration risks, are also discussed. ÚvodPo druhé světové válce se postupně snížila ve většině ekonomicky vyspělých zemí Evropy plodnost žen pod úroveň prosté reprodukce. Úhrnná plodnost (průměrný počet dětí na 1 ženu za celé její reprodukční období) poklesl pod 2,1, což je při současné nízké úmrtnosti přibližně úroveň, při níž každá žena v průměru porodí dceru, která se dožije reprodukčního věku. Tato úroveň plodnosti tedy zajišťuje zachování velikosti populace. Při nižší plodnosti by bez trvalé imigrace po určitém čase nastala situace, kdy by v dané zemi byl každoroční počet narozených dětí nižší než počet zemřelých osob, velikost populace by se zmenšovala, populace by vymírala.*1 Tomáš Fiala (fiala@vse.cz), Jitka Langhamrová (langhamj@vse.cz), Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Fakulta informatiky a statistiky.Příspěvek vznikl za podpory GA ČR 15-13283S Projekce populace České republiky podle úrovně vzdělání a rodinného stavu.

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Increase of Labor Force of Older Age – Challenge for the Czech Republic in Next Decades

Cited by 2 publications

References 2 publications

Pension Age Which Would Guarantee Stabilization of the Old Age Dependency Ratio

Pension Age Which Would Guarantee Stabilization of the Old Age Dependency Ratio

Impact of Foreign Migration on the Development of the Size and Age Structure of the Population of the Czech Republic

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