Increased high-temperature extremes and associated population exposure in Africa by the mid-21st century

Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Zeng, Gang; Yang, Xiaonan; Zhang, Guwei; Ullah, Irfan; Gahigi, Aimable; Vuguziga, Floribert; Asfaw, Temesgen Gebremariam; Ayugi, Brian

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148162

Cited by 103 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Datasets with different resolutions cannot be directly processed together [66][67][68][69]. All datasets other than GLDAS and GRACE were aggregated spatially at 1 • by 1 • resolution before standardization in order to maintain uniformity.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Multi-Year Reanalysis, Models, and Satellite Remote Sensing Products for Agricultural Drought Monitoring over South Asian Countries

et al. 2021

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The substantial reliance of South Asia (SA) to rain-based agriculture makes the region susceptible to food scarcity due to droughts. Previously, most research on SA has emphasized the meteorological aspects with little consideration of agrarian drought impressions. The insufficient amount of in situ precipitation data across SA has also hindered thorough investigation in the agriculture sector. In recent times, models, satellite remote sensing, and reanalysis products have increased the amount of data. Hence, soil moisture, precipitation, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and vegetation condition index (VCI) products have been employed to illustrate SA droughts from 1982 to 2019 using a standardized index/anomaly approach. Besides, the relationships of these products towards crop production are evaluated using the annual national production of barley, maize, rice, and wheat by computing the yield anomaly index (YAI). Our findings indicate that MERRA-2, CPC, FLDAS (soil moisture), GPCC, and CHIRPS (precipitation) are alike and constant over the entire four regions of South Asia (northwest, southwest, northeast, and southeast). On the other hand, GLDAS and ERA5 remain poor when compared to other soil moisture products and identified drought conditions in regions one (northwest) and three (northeast). Likewise, TWS products such as MERRA-2 TWS and GRACE TWS (2002–2014) followed the patterns of ERA5 and GLDAS and presented divergent and inconsistent drought patterns. Furthermore, the vegetation condition index (VCI) remained less responsive in regions three (northeast) and four (southeast) only. Based on annual crop production data, MERRA-2, CPC, FLDAS, GPCC, and CHIRPS performed fairly well and indicated stronger and more significant associations (0.80 to 0.96) when compared to others. Thus, the current outcomes are imperative for gauging the deficient amount of data in the SA region, as they provide substitutes for agricultural drought monitoring.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Multi-Year Reanalysis, Models, and Satellite Remote Sensing Products for Agricultural Drought Monitoring over South Asian Countries

et al. 2021

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“…A recent study has reported the global warming‐induced soil moisture deficit during summer and spring seasons in semiarid regions, leading to greater drought risk vulnerability (Wu et al ., 2018). The rising temperature patterns with below‐average rainfall could decrease soil moisture contents over arid to semiarid regions, making it more vulnerable to drought risks (Himayoun and Roshni, 2019; Ain et al ., 2020; Omer et al ., 2020a; Iyakaremye et al ., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes in seasonal drought characteristics and their possible potential drivers over Pakistan

Ullah

Yin

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Long‐term drought monitoring and its assessment are of great importance for meteorological disaster risk management. The recurrent spells of heat waves and droughts have severely affected the environmental conditions worldwide, including Pakistan. The present work sought to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in drought characteristics over Pakistan during Rabi and Kharif cropping seasons. The role of large‐scale circulation and interannual mode of climate variability is further explored to identify the physical mechanisms associated with droughts in the region. Monthly precipitation and temperature data (1983–2019) from 53 meteorological stations were used to study drought characteristics, using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The nonparametric Mann–Kendall, Sen's Slope, and Sequential Mann–Kendall tests were applied on the drought index to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the historical trend. The state‐of‐the‐art Bayesian Dynamic Linear model was further used to analyse large‐scale climate drivers of droughts, revealed an increase in drought severity, mostly over arid to semiarid regions for both cropping seasons. While temperature played a significant role in defining droughts over dry and hot seasons, rainfall is influential over the western disturbances influenced region. The analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns revealed that large‐scale changes in wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, and geopotential height anomalies are the likely drivers of droughts in the region. We found that Niño4, sea surface temperature, and multivariate El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO4.0) Index are the most influential factors for seasonal droughts across Pakistan. Overall, the findings provide a better understanding of drought‐prone areas in the region, and this information is of potential use for mitigating and managing drought risks.

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“…For instance, many sub-regions have experienced notable changes in precipitation over the recent decades [4,21,26]. Similarly, positive trajectories in temperature have been observed and are projected to increase significantly across the continent [20,[27][28][29][30][31][32]. This will affect the broader population's livelihoods that mainly rely on rainfed agriculture [33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Ayugi

Dike

Ngoma

et al. 2021

Water

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This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) simulations are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The results show an increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) towards the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) in both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very wet days (R95 p), very heavy precipitation >20 mm (R20 mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant changes during OND compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while a reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes may pose a serious threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are recommended to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extreme incidences projected for relevant policies.

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Increased high-temperature extremes and associated population exposure in Africa by the mid-21st century

Cited by 103 publications

References 48 publications

Comparison of Multi-Year Reanalysis, Models, and Satellite Remote Sensing Products for Agricultural Drought Monitoring over South Asian Countries

Comparison of Multi-Year Reanalysis, Models, and Satellite Remote Sensing Products for Agricultural Drought Monitoring over South Asian Countries

Observed changes in seasonal drought characteristics and their possible potential drivers over Pakistan

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

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