Induced fertility transition: Impact of population planning and socio-economic change in the people's Republic of China

Tien, H. Yuan

doi:10.1080/00324728.1984.10410299

Cited by 29 publications

(18 citation statements)

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“…Following a different pattern, the Chinese fertility transition can be viewed as a special case, as the country underwent a sharp decline in fertility in a relatively short time period. This is regarded as a result of an "induced fertility transition," made possible through strong government intervention in family planning activities since 1970, and has also been influenced by accelerated socioeconomic development (TIEN, 1984).…”

Section: Fertility Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of higher education in BRIC countries: a demographic perspective

Guimarães¹

2013

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

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In regard to the development and reform of higher education (HE), recent and projected evidence suggest that enrollment growth is likely to be slower than it is at present (or even negative) as a result of ageing populations. The case of the BRIC countries is particularly interesting for the study of the impact of demographic changes on HE because these countries show considerable diversity regarding their demographic transition. This paper explores how demographic changes are likely to affect the demand for higher education in BRIC countries. I argue that these countries are now facing a great expansion of enrollment but, given declining fertility levels, diversification of the HE clientele will become a common strategy. But diversification of the student population will place a new and complex set of demands on HE institutions, and equity in higher education in the near future will depend on how HE systems are structured in these countries.

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Section: Fertility Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of higher education in BRIC countries: a demographic perspective

Guimarães¹

2013

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

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“…Most of the decline occurred during the 1970s, with the "Later-Longer-Fewer" family planning campaign. Research on China's fertility decline has stressed the importance of family planning policies while simultaneously acknowledging the influence of socioeconomic development and cultural factors (Birdsall and Jamison, 1983;Bongaarts and Greenhalgh, 1985;Cai, 2010;Cooney, Wei, and Powers, 1991;Feeney et al, 1989;Poston and Gu, 1987;Tien, 1984;Wolf, 1986). Some studies argue that family planning policies explain a sizable portion of China's fertility decline (Lavely and Freedman, 1990;Chen, 2004 andLi et al, 2005).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

China’s family planning policies and their labor market consequences

Wang

Zhao

2016

J Popul Econ

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E S China's Family Planning Policies and Their Labor Market ConsequencesIZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. . This paper systematically examines the labor market consequences of China's family planning policies. First, we briefly review the major historical evolution of China's family planning policies. Second, we investigate the effects of these policies on the labor market, focusing on the size and quality of the workingage population and its age and gender composition and paying special attention to regional as well as rural-urban differences in the demographic structure resulting from the interaction of the family planning policies and internal migration. Last, we discuss undergoing and prospective policy changes and potential consequences. Though urban areas and coastal provinces have implemented stricter family planning policies, our analysis shows that because of internal migration, the aging problem is more severe in rural areas and in inland provinces. Our simulation results further indicate that the new two-child policy may be too late and too little to alleviate the aging problem in China.JEL Classification: J13, J11, J21, J61

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“…From 1970 onwards, fertility declined rapidly to an average of about 2.7 children per woman in 1980 and it fell further below replacement level in 1990 with 2.0 children per woman (Peng & Guo, 2000). There is a general consensus from the literature that although rapid socioeconomic development across different regions contributed to boosting fertility transition in China, this was largely due to the Later, Longer, Fewer policy and the subsequent more strict FPP implemented by the Chinese government (Tien, 1984;Bongaarts & Greenhalgh, 1985;Wolf, 1986;Feeney & Yu, 1987;Poston & Gu, 1987;Yang & Chen, 2004;Retherford et al, 2005;Chen et al, 2009). There is also, however, evidence to suggest that the onset of fertility transition and the recent trend towards very low fertility in China have both been driven by socioeconomic development.…”

Section: Three Phases Of Family Planning Policies and Fertility Transmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The scale and population impact of Family Planning Policies (FPP) in China have been widely documented in the demographic and social science literature ever since family planning was introduced (Tien, 1980(Tien, , 1984Bongaarts & Greenhalgh, 1985;Greenhalgh, 1986Greenhalgh, , 2003Hardee & Banister, 1988;Liang & Lee, 2006;Zeng, 2007;NPFPC, 2007;Zhai & Li, 2014). Although typically referred to as the One-Child policy elsewhere, in reality family planning policies in China have been implemented in various phases differentially across various sub-populations based on socioeconomic, geographic and population criteria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unpacking the Differential Impact of Family Planning Policies in China: Analysis of Parity Progression Ratios From Retrospective Birth History Data, 1971–2005

2018

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SummaryAlthough China’s family planning programme is often referred to in the singular, most notably the One-Child policy, in reality there have been a number of different policies in place simultaneously, targeted at different sub-populations characterized by region and socioeconomic conditions. This study attempted to systematically assess the differential impact of China’s family planning programmes over the past 40 years. The contribution of Parity Progression Ratios to fertility change among different sub-populations exposed to various family planning policies over time was assessed. Cross-sectional birth history data from six consecutive rounds of nationally representative population and family planning surveys from the early 1970s until the mid-2000s were used, covering all geographical regions of China. Four sub-populations exposed to differential family planning regimes were identified. The analyses provide compelling evidence of the influential role of family planning policies in reducing higher Parity Progression Ratios across different sub-populations, particularly in urban China where fertility dropped to replacement level even before the implementation of the One-Child policy. The prevailing socioeconomic conditions in turn have been instrumental in adapting and accelerating family planning policy responses to reducing fertility levels across China.

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Induced fertility transition: Impact of population planning and socio-economic change in the people's Republic of China

Cited by 29 publications

References 3 publications

The future of higher education in BRIC countries: a demographic perspective

The future of higher education in BRIC countries: a demographic perspective

China’s family planning policies and their labor market consequences

Unpacking the Differential Impact of Family Planning Policies in China: Analysis of Parity Progression Ratios From Retrospective Birth History Data, 1971–2005

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