Industry level <i>J</i>-curve in Turkey

Durmaz, Nazif

doi:10.1108/jes-08-2013-0122

Cited by 100 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Table 1 reports the results. For more on the application of these methods see (Delatte and Lopez-Villavicencio 2012;Bahmani-Oskooee and Fariditavana 2015;Bahmani-Oskooee and Sujata 2015;Durmaz 2015;Baghestani and Kherfi 2015;Pal and Mitra 2016;Al-Shayeb and Hatemi-J 2016;Lima et al 2016;Nusair 2017;Aftab et al 2017;Gregoriou 2017 From the short-run estimates of the linear models reported in Panel A, we gather that policy uncertainty measure has a significant effect on oil prices in the cases of Canada, Europe, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the U.S. In all the cases, the effects are adverse, implying that increased uncertainty in any of these countries has adverse effects on oil prices.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis

Bahmani‐Oskooee

Harvey

Niroomand

2018

IJFS

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Previous research has assessed the impact of policy uncertainty on a few macro variables. In this paper, we consider its impact on oil prices. Oil prices are usually determined in global markets by the law of demand and supply. Our concern in this paper is to determine which country's policy uncertainty measure has an impact on oil prices. Using both the linear and the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods, we find that while policy uncertainty measures of Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the U.S. have short-run effects, short-run effects last into the long-run asymmetric effects only in the case of China. This may reflect the importance and recent surge in China's engagement in world trade.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis

Bahmani‐Oskooee

Harvey

Niroomand

2018

IJFS

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“…Rose ve Yellen (1989), Rose (1990), Wilson ve Tat (2001), Akbostanci (2004), Narayan ve Narayan (2004), Yamak ve Korkmaz (2005), Karagöz ve Doğan (2005) , Peker (2008), Halicioglu (2008), Yazici ve Ahmad Klasra (2010) Jeğrisini destekleyecek bir kanıt bulamamıştır. Demirden ve Pastine (1995), Kale (2001), Vergil ve Erdoğan (2009), Jamilov (2013, Durmaz (2015) Karamelikli (2016) ise, J-eğrisinin bazı ülkeler için geçerli olmasına rağmen diğer ülkeler için geçerli olmadığını göstermişlerdir.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Dengesinde J-Eğrisi Etkisi

Karamelikli¹

2016

itobiad

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ÖzJ-Eğrisi teorisine göre döviz kurlarında meydana gelen bir artış, kısa dönemde dış ticaret açığını arttırmakta sonrasında ise azaltmaktadır. Bu konu ile ilgili birçok çalışma yapılmış olmasına rağmen makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki asimetrik ilişkiler çoğunlukla göz ardı edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin dış ticaret dengesi simetrik ve asimetrik modeller ile analiz edilmiştir. Bu amaçla aylık ve üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı iki model oluşturulmuştur. Üçer aylık verilere dayalı analiz sonucuna göre değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ve J-eğrisi varlığına rastlanmamıştır. Ancak aylık veriler ile oluşturulan model sonuçlarına göre, kısa dönemde simetrik, uzun vadede ise asimetrik bir ilişki ve eşbütünleşme mevcuttur. Hem üç aylık verilerle hem de aylık verilerle yapılan tahminlerde ise J-Eğrisi etkisi gözlemlenmemiştir. Sonuç olarak sadece kısa dönemde geçerli olması beklenilen J-eğrisi için aylık verilerin kullanılması daha sağlıklı sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır. Anahtar Kelimler: Dış Ticaret Dengesi, ARDL, NARDL, J-Eğrisi Etkisi J-Curve Effect on Turkey's Foreign Trade Balance AbstractAccording to J-Curve Theory, an increase in exchange rates causes a decrease in trade balance in the short run and then causes to increase in it. Although there are a lot of studies in this subject, the asymmetrical relationships among macroeconomic variables have been mostly ignored. In this study, Turkey's foreign trade balance was analyzed by the symmetric and asymmetric models. For this propose two models were constructed by using monthly and quarterly data. According to the results of the analyses based on quarterly data, there is neither cointegration among variables nor J-Curve phenomenon. But according to the results of the model which is based on monthly data, there is symmetric relationship in the short run and asymmetric relationship and cointegration in the long run. By the estimation of using both monthly and quarterly data there is no J-Curve effect. As a result, using monthly data in the estimation of shortrun phenomenon of J-Curve which is expected to exist only at short run gives more healthy results.

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“… For some other application of these models see Apergis and Miller (), Delatte and Lopez‐Villavicencio (), Verheyen (), Gogas and Pragidis (), Durmaz (), Baghestani and Kherfi (), Al‐Shayeb and Hatemi‐J (), Lima et al . (), Nusair (), Aftab et al .…”

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confidence: 99%

The real peso–dollar rate and US–Mexico industry trade: an asymmetric analysis

Bahmani‐Oskooee

Harvey

Hegerty

2018

Scottish J Political Eco

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In an attempt to improve upon previous analyses and find further evidence for exchange rate theories such as the 'J-curve', numerous studies have introduced novel econometric approaches that might help uncover significant results through disaggregation and nonlinearity. This study applies the nonlinear cointegration method of Shin et al. (2014) to US-Mexican trade balances in 91 individual industries. While the linear model yields support for the 'J-curve' effect in 16 industries, the nonlinear model raises this number to 29 which includes the two largest industries that engage in 35% of the trade between two countries. Furthermore, while the short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes were discovered in almost all industries, short-run effects translated to significant long-run asymmetric effects in 52 industries.

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Industry level J-curve in Turkey

Cited by 100 publications

References 32 publications

On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis

On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis

Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Dengesinde J-Eğrisi Etkisi

The real peso–dollar rate and US–Mexico industry trade: an asymmetric analysis

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