Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi variant viruses

Abstract

<abstract> <p>ATLM (Apparent Time Lag Model) was extended to simulate the spread of infection in a mixed state of the variant virus and original wild type. It is applied to the 4th wave of infection spread in Tokyo, and (1) the 4th wave bottoms out near the end of the state of emergency, and the number of infected people increases again. (2) The rate of increase will be mainly by d strain (L452R) virus, while the increase by a strain (N501Y) virus will be suppressed. (3) It is anticipated that the infection will spread during the Olympic Games. (4) When variant viruses compete, the infection of highly infectious virus rises sharply while the infection by weakly infectious ones has converged. (5) It is effective as an infection control measure to find an infected person early and shorten the period from infection to quarantine by PCR test or antigen test as a measure other than the vaccine.</p> </abstract>

Novel deterministic epidemic model considering mass vaccination and lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 spread in Israel: a numerical study

“…α 0 was evaluated to be 0.09 in Tokyo using the same approach, that is ATLM with T = 14 [ 25 ] but 0.117 in Israel. It may come from the difference in pandemics with and without vaccination.…”

“…Anyway, the difference between the two is not large, and thus, the currently obtained α 0 is reasonable. For more information, the conventional strain during the first wave of the pandemic and the delta strain in the fifth-wave pandemic both observed in Tokyo have 0.164 [ 8 ] and 0.121 [ 25 ], respectively.…”

Novel deterministic epidemic model considering mass vaccination and lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 spread in Israel: A numerical study

“…Anyway, the difference between the two is not large, and thus, the currently obtained α 0 is reasonable. For more information, the conventional strain during the 1 st -wave of the pandemic and the delta strain in the 5 th -wave pandemic both observed in Tokyo have 0.164 [8] and 0.121 [25], respectively.…”

“…α 0 was evaluated to be 0.09 in Tokyo using the same approach, i.e. ATLM with T = 14 [25] but 0.117 in Israel. It may come from the difference in pandemics with and without vaccination.…”

COVID-19 infection risk assessment and management at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games: A scoping review

“…When the judgments or extraction made by the two experts did not agree, a third expert was consulted. Ultimately, 30 papers remained [4] , [5] , [6] , [7] , [8] , [9] , [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] , [25] , [26] , [27] , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] , [33] .…”