Novel deterministic epidemic model considering mass vaccination and lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 spread in Israel: A numerical study

Abstract

Why public health intervention by Israel government against COVID-19 spread has been successful while the most countries in the world is still coping with it? To give the answer, a simple numerical epidemic model is prepared to simulate an entire trend of various infection related variables considering vaccination campaign and simultaneous lockdown. The model is an extension of the deterministic physical model ATLM previously published by the authors that aims to predict an entire trend of variables in a single epidemic. The time series data of both vaccine dose ratio and lockdown period are employed in the model. Predictions have been compared with observed data in terms of daily new cases, isolated people, infectious at large and effective reproductive number and the model is verified. Moreover, parameter survey calculations for several scenarios have clarified a synergy effect of vaccination and lockdown have existed. In particular, it is suggested the key element of Israel success lies in a high dose rate of vaccination that avoids the onset of the rebound of daily new cases on the rescission of the lockdown.

Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi variant viruses

“…We considered that the time required until isolated from infected is important role of contribution in expanding infection, therefore we developed ATLM (Apparent Time Lag Model) with delay until isolation time [10]. This model currently has an extended version with vaccine and lockdown effects [11]. The infectivity of mutant viruses has already been reported [12] and the spread of the virus has been simulated.…”