Infections and Elections

Abstract

In the studies reported here, we conducted longitudinal analyses of preelection polling data to test whether an Ebola outbreak predicted voting intentions preceding the 2014 U.S. federal elections. Analyses were conducted on nationwide polls pertaining to 435 House of Representatives elections and on state-specific polls pertaining to 34 Senate elections. Analyses compared voting intentions before and after the initial Ebola outbreak and assessed correlations between Internet search activity for the term "Ebola" and voting intentions. Results revealed that (a) the psychological salience of Ebola was associated with increased intention to vote for Republican candidates and (b) this effect occurred primarily in states characterized by norms favoring Republican Party candidates (the effect did not occur in states with norms favoring Democratic Party candidates). Ancillary analyses addressed several interpretational issues. Overall, these results suggest that disease outbreaks may influence voter behavior in two psychologically distinct ways: increased inclination to vote for politically conservative candidates and increased inclination to conform to popular opinion.

Editorial overview: Five observations about tradition and progress in the scientific study of political ideologies

“…Furthermore, exposure to objectively threatening circumstances — such as terrorist attacks [ 7 , 8 , 9 ] and shifts in racial demography ([ 10 , 11 ]) — were found to elicit modest conservative shifts in public opinion. These last findings are consistent with other reports that pandemic diseases — such as Ebola and COVID-19 — may create a social psychological environment that is more conducive to conservative and rightist ideologies than to liberal and leftist ideologies [ 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 ].…”

The COVID-19 pandemic, authoritarianism, and rejection of sexual dissenters in Poland.

“…Exposure to COVID-19 news coverage is also likely to increase the specific threat of infectious disease as indicated by previous studies showing that reminders of Ebola epidemic increased political conservatism (Beall et al, 2016) and implicit prejudice towards gay people in the US (Inbar et al, 2016). Pathogens pose a predatory threat to humans.…”

Understanding the COVID-19 tourist psyche: The Evolutionary Tourism Paradigm

“…Indeed, regions historically characterized by a high degree of pathogen threat tend to score lower on extraversion, sociosexuality, and openness to experience ( Schaller & Murray, 2008 ). Similarly, pathogen threat has been linked to increased conformity, political conservatism, strong family ties, and religiosity ( Beall, Hofer, & Schaller, 2016 ; Fincher & Thornhill, 2012 ; Murray & Schaller, 2012 ).…”