Influence of microphysics on the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature

Singh, Martin S.; O’Gorman, Paul A.

doi:10.1002/2014gl061222

Cited by 95 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Sen Roy and Balling, 2004;Rajeevan et al 2008;Pattanaik and Rajeevan 2010;Westra et al 2014) and model studies (e.g. Frei et al 1998;Muller et al 2011;Singh and O'Gorman 2014). Our results clearly show a shift in the precipitation categories, with more extreme precipitation in the perturbed runs.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

Sørland

Sorteberg

2015

Clim Dyn

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

Sørland

Sorteberg

2015

Clim Dyn

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“…The differences may have various origins which are not accounted for by our simple scaling, such as model uncertainty (e.g. convection and microphysics parameterizations; Singh and O'Gorman 2012), change in precipitation duration (and thus impact on averaging effect), change in precipitation efficiency or vertical moisture transport in a more arid environment (Paltridge et al 2009;Zhang 2009;Drobinski et al 2016). The ratio of 3-hourly to daily precipitation extremes in the low-resolution simulations increases with warming (not shown), suggesting shorter extreme precipitation events and thus a steeper negative slope at high temperature for daily precipitation accumulation.…”

Section: (S)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios

et al. 2016

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temperature-precipitation extremes relationship displays a hook shape across the Mediterranean, with negative slope at high temperatures and a slope following Clausius-Clapeyron (CC)-scaling at low temperatures. The temperature at which the slope of the temperature-precipitation extreme relation sharply changes (or temperature break), ranges from about 20 °C in the western Mediterranean to <10 °C in Greece. In addition, this slope is always negative in the arid regions of the Mediterranean. The scaling of the simulated precipitation extremes is insensitive to oceanatmosphere coupling, while it depends very weakly on the resolution at high temperatures for short precipitation accumulation times. In future climate scenario simulations covering the 2070-2100 period, the temperature break shifts to higher temperatures by a value which is on average the mean regional temperature change due to global warming. AbstractIn this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979-2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the change in precipitation extremes with respect to temperature is robust and consistent. The spatial variability of the This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Med-CORDEX, an international coordinated initiative dedicated to the multi-component regional climate modelling (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, river) of the Mediterranean under the umbrella of HyMeX, CORDEX, and Med-CLIVAR and coordinated by Samuel Somot, Paolo Ruti, Erika Coppola, Gianmaria Sannino, Bodo Ahrens, and Gabriel Jordà. 3The slope of the simulated future temperature-precipitation extremes relationship is close to CC-scaling at temperatures below the temperature break, while at high temperatures, the negative slope is close, but somewhat flatter or steeper, than in the current climate depending on the model. Overall, models predict more intense precipitation extremes in the future. Adjusting the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the present climate using the CC law and the temperature shift in the future allows the recovery of the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the future climate. This implies negligible regional changes of relative humidity in the future despite the large warming and drying over the Mediterranean. This suggests that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of moisture which counteracts the drying and warming impacts on relative humidity in parts of the Mediterranean region.

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“…Indeed, Parodi and Emanuel (2009) found that the fall speed of hydrometeors plays an important role in determining convective updraft velocities in RCE; a low fall speed results in clouds with higher condensed water contents and thus reduced buoyancy via the water loading effect. Hydrometeor fall speeds, and microphysical processes more generally, are sensitive to temperature changes (Singh and O'Gorman 2014) and thus may contribute to changes in updraft velocity as the atmosphere warms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increases in moist‐convective updraught velocities with warming in radiative‐convective equilibrium

Singh

O’Gorman

2015

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The scaling of updraft velocities over a wide range of surface temperatures is investigated in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with a cloud-system resolving model. The updraft velocities increase with warming, with the largest fractional increases occurring in the upper troposphere and for the highest percentile updrafts. A plume model approximately reproduces the increases in updraft velocities if the plume environment is prescribed as the mean profile in each simulation while holding the entrainment and microphysical assumptions fixed. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) also increases with warming in the simulations but at a much faster fractional rate when compared with the square of the updraft velocities. This discrepancy is investigated with a two-plume model in which a weakly-entraining plume represents the most intense updrafts, and the environment is assumed to adjust so that a more strongly-entraining plume has negligible buoyancy. The two-plume model suggests that updraft velocities increase with warming at a lower rate than implied by the CAPE because of the influence of entrainment on both the mean stratification and the updrafts themselves.

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Influence of microphysics on the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature

Cited by 95 publications

References 27 publications

Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios

Increases in moist‐convective updraught velocities with warming in radiative‐convective equilibrium

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