Influence of Tropical Cyclones on the Estimation of Climate Variability in the Tropical Western North Pacific

Hsu, Huang‐Hsiung; Hung, Ching Hui; Lo, An Kai; Wu, Chun‐Chieh; Hung, Chih Wen

doi:10.1175/2007jcli1847.1

Cited by 76 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…It should be mentioned that the TC contribution can be more than 40% along the coastline. These results are also generally consistent with that in Ren et al (2007), Cheng et al (2007), and Hsu et al (2008). It is suggested that changes in TC rainfall should be considered when the rainfall changes in southern and southeastern China are discussed.…”

Section: Changes In Tc Rainfall and Its Contribution To The Summer Prsupporting

confidence: 89%

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in China

Zhang¹,

Ren

et al. 2013

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The torrential-rainfall-associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity often causes flood disasters in China. Moreover, studies suggest that TC-related rainfall rates are likely to increase in a warmer climate. Using daily precipitation observations at 514 meteorological stations during 1965̶2009, this study investigates the primary features of TC rainfall in China, with a particular focus on the contribution of TC rainfall to the changes in the precipitation climate and the average rainfall per TC.TC rainfall mainly affected eastern and southeastern China, accounting for more than 10% of the summer rainfall in South and Southeast China. TC rainfall trended upward in the lower reach of the Yangtze River and Southeast China, contributing to the "wetting in the south and drying in the north" pattern by enhancing the rainfall in Southeast China. This study suggests that the average rainfall per TC has significantly increased in Southeast China during 1965̶2009. In the peak season (July̶September), all significant changes are upward trends that occur south of the Yangtze River east of 110°E. This study finds that the increasing rainfall per TC was not accompanied with the enhanced TC intensity. In addition, no significant trend can be found in the translation speed of TCs that affected China during 1965̶2009, suggesting that the increasing TC rainfall per TC in China was not due to the slowdown of TC movement.

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Section: Changes In Tc Rainfall and Its Contribution To The Summer Prsupporting

confidence: 89%

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in China

Zhang¹,

Ren

et al. 2013

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…Hatsushika et al (2006) investigated the TC detection rate in the Japanese 25-years Reanalysis (JRA-25, Onogi et al 2007), and obtained a detection rate of 90%. Hsu et al (2008) extracted TC wind fields from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-years reanalysis project (ERA-40, Uppala et al 2005). They found that TCs contribute significantly (exceeding 50% in certain regions) to the seasonal mean and the intraseasonal and interannual variance of the 850-hPa vorticity along the TC tracks in the tropical western North Pacific.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mean Features of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation from TRMM/3B42

Kamahori¹

2012

SOLA

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The mean features of precipitation distribution associated with tropical cyclones are evaluated as anomalies from environmental precipitation fields, in six tropical cyclone active basins, using satellite-derived daily precipitation observation. A common feature in all basins is that concentric positive precipitation anomalies extend within a 5-degree radius from the tropical cyclone center with maximum values of 70 to 100 mm day −1 . These distributions are well approximated by a Gaussian curve with an e-folding radius of 2.2 to 2.8 degrees. Positive precipitation anomalies are surrounded by negative anomalies in all basins, indicating suppression of precipitation due to the tropical cyclones themselves at a large distance from the center. The negative anomalies have minimum values of −2 to −3 mm day −1 and are distributed mainly on the equatorial side of the center. Precipitation excess frequency around the tropical cyclones is also evaluated. The western North Pacific has maximum values of excess frequencies in all basins, in which the frequency for 100 mm day −1 is 26 days yr −1 and that for 200 mm day −1 is 1.8 days yr −1 within a 1-degree radius from the center. We assume that tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific have the greatest precipitation intensity.

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“…Based on the forcing of the monsoon, a relationship between the interannual variance of the WNP monsoon and the annual maximum discharge in Kratie is found that explains the variation of the scale parameter. It is however acknowledged that other factors play a role in flood generation, such as land use change (Bernard and Koninck, 1997), land management (Haddeland et al, 2006), dam building (Lauri et al, 2012) and local meteorological conditions (Hsu et al, 2008) that may not be related to the larger monsoon circulation. There is however a point in assessing the impacts of a change in the monsoon regime, since it constitutes the dominant factor for floods in the lower Mekong Basin.…”

Section: The 100-year Flood In Kratie Under CCmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains

Delgado

Merz

Apel

2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived by applying model chains consisting of the following elements: "emission scenario -global climate model -downscaling, possibly including bias correctionhydrological model -flood frequency analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains requires major efforts, and their complexity is high.We propose for the Mekong River an alternative approach which is based on a shortened model chain: "emission scenario -global climate model -non-stationary flood frequency model". The underlying idea is to use a link between the Western Pacific monsoon and local flood characteristics: the variance of the monsoon drives a non-stationary flood frequency model, yielding a direct estimate of flood probabilities. This approach bypasses the uncertain precipitation, since the monsoon variance is derived from large-scale wind fields which are better represented by climate models. The simplicity of the monsoon-flood link allows deriving large ensembles of flood projections under climate change. We conclude that this is a worthwhile, complementary approach to the typical model chains in catchments where a substantial link between climate and floods is found.

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Influence of Tropical Cyclones on the Estimation of Climate Variability in the Tropical Western North Pacific

Cited by 76 publications

References 19 publications

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in China

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in China

Mean Features of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation from TRMM/3B42

Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains

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