Objective
To investigate the relative predictive value of CD4+ metrics for serious clinical endpoints.
Design
Observational
Methods
Patients (3012; 20317 person-years) from control arms of ESPRIT and SILCAAT trials were followed prospectively. We used Cox regression to identify CD4+ metrics (latest, baseline and nadir CD4+count, latest CD4+%, time spent with CD4+count below certain thresholds and CD4+ slopes) independently predictive of i)all-cause mortality; ii) non-AIDS deaths; iii) non-AIDS (cardiovascular, hepatic, renal and non-AIDS malignancy) and iv) AIDS events. Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) was calculated for each model. Significant metrics (p<0.05) were then additionally adjusted for latest CD4+ count.
Results
Non-AIDS deaths occurred at a higher rate than AIDS deaths (rate-ratio: 6.48, 95%CI: 5.1–8.1) and similarly, non-AIDS events (rate-ratio: 1.72, 95%CI: 1.65–1.79). Latest CD4+count was strongly predictive of lower risk of death (HR per log2 rise: 0.48, 95%CI: 0.43–0.54), with lowest AIC of all metrics. CD4+ slope over 7-visits, after additional adjustment for latest CD4+count, was the only metric to be independent predictor for all-cause (HR for slope<-10/mm3/month vs. 0±10: 3.04, 95%CI: 1.98–4.67) and non-AIDS deaths (HR for slope <-10/mm3/month vs. 0±10: 2.62, 95%CI: 1.62–4.22). Latest CD4+ count (per log2 rise) was the best predictor across all endpoints (i–iv) and predicted hepatic (HR: 0.46, 95%CI: 0.33–0.63) and renal events (HR: 0.39, 95%CI: 0.21–0.70), but not cardiovascular events (HR: 1.05, 95%CI: 0.77–1.43) or non-AIDS cancers (HR: 0.78, 95%CI: 0.59–1.03).
Conclusion
Latest CD4+count is the best predictor of serious endpoints. CD4+ slope independently predicts all-cause and non-AIDS deaths.