Integrated modeling of a complex oil rim development scenario under subsurface uncertainty

Abstract

Evaluation of the economic benefit of field development projects in the oil and gas industry is naturally subject to subsurface uncertainties and risks. While high economic returns from produced volumes compensated for the lack of robust uncertainty estimates in the past, lower margins in tight market conditions and more complex project designs require increased efforts in delivering reliable uncertainty estimates for improving reservoir management decision support in times to come. An increasing number of field development projects include rigorous uncertainty quantification workflows based on parameterized subsurface uncertainties. Estimation and reduction of prediction uncertainty has no value unless it can potentially influence a decision process. This requires an integrated workflow design across disciplines and a proper risk mitigation plan. This work presents the implementation of an uncertainty workflow in reservoir management with a focus on reservoir modeling and simulation. Practical workflow design steps and intermediate milestones are discussed for generating alternative reservoir model realizations including historical production data. Calibrated model realizations define the basis for prediction estimates of a predefined field development plan. Practical steps are discussed with application to a complex oil rim development for an existing reservoir with long production history. This study aimed at an uncertainty assessment of a field development plan and a proposal for optimized relocations of infill wells considering multiple geological realizations. In conclusion, this work describes examples, experiences, and recommendations for an industry implementation for a risk assessment of a field development plan under subsurface uncertainties.

Rapid screening of oil-rim reservoirs for development and management

“…reservoirs in the Niger Delta and elsewhere (John et al 2019;Elharith et al 2019;Ogolo et al 2018;Olabode et al 2018;Udoh et al 2018;Obinna et al 2016). For simplicity, both the porosity and K v /K h remain unchanged for all the cases investigated.…”

“…1). Because the dynamics of gas cap and aquifer in the doughnut and pan-cake oil-rim configurations are not necessarily the same, the evaluation and management of oil-rim reservoirs are complex, computationally intensive and less straightforward (John et al 2019;Elharith et al 2019;Fan et al 2015;Lawal et al 2010;Silva and Dawe 2010). As a result of the active gas cap and aquifer, the exploitation of oil rims is often associated with complex production problems, which are attributed to an early breakthrough of gas and/or water (Jaoua and Rafiee 2019;John et al 2019;John 2017;Masoudi et al 2013).…”

“…In searching for an optimum solution, the rigorous evaluation of the various development options often requires extensive reservoir simulation studies. This optimization problem entails multiple variables, which include geologic, engineering, economic, regulatory and operational factors (Ziablitckaia et al 2019;Elharith et al 2019;Ogolo et al 2018;Dilib et al 2015;Thomas and Bratvold 2015;Chan et al 2014;Uwaga and Lawal 2006). These variables usually exhibit varied dependencies, thereby complicating the problem of selecting the most appropriate combination of well type, development concepts and production constraints.…”

Fast and Cost-Effective Mathematical Models for Hydrocarbon-Immiscible Water Alternating Gas Incremental Recovery Factor Prediction

“…Reservoir modeling uncertainty, related to the input data, modeling assumptions, data interpretation, selected modeling algorithms, and correlations, is one of the reservoir modeling challenges and limitations. Several attempts were proposed to handle reservoir model uncertainty; however, the proposed approaches are field-specific, time-consuming, and costly; require specific softwares, which are expensive; and are complex, especially for complex and large fields. , …”

Formation of the Organizational Structure of Managing a Large Project of Oil Field Development

“…To date, the issue of the formation of the organizational structure for managing complex, unique and large-scale projects, such as the development of an extra-viscous oil field, taking into account the particularities and conditions for the implementation of these projects, which largely affect their management effectiveness, as well as its evaluation, remains open. At the same time, the creation of an organizational management structure that optimally reflects the specifics of the implementation of projects for the development of new, unique oil fields can reduce the possible risks of the project [7], [16], contribute to its development, taking into account changes in the external and internal environment [2], [6], and also become the basis for the formation of structural and integration relations in the oil and gas supply chains [9], [18].…”