Interactions of climate change with biological invasions and land use in the Hawaiian Islands: Modeling the fate of endemic birds using a geographic information system

Benning, Tracy L.; LaPointe, Dennis A.; Atkinson, Carter T.; Vitousek, Peter M.

doi:10.1073/pnas.162372399

Cited by 263 publications

(231 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Sala et al (2000), for example, considered evolving land use patterns to have much more immediate effects on species' distributional patterns than climate change per se, and a few studies have attempted to consider both factors simultaneously (Bethke & Nudds 1995, Benning et al 2002. Although such factors clearly are important-evolving patterns of land use in the face of changing climates will certainly define the fine-scale limitations on distributional patterns of natural vegetation-they will, nevertheless operate within the framework of possibilities assessed in the present study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

2003

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The present study applies a series of new techniques to understand the conservation of Cerrado tree species in the face of climate change. We applied techniques from the emerging field of ecological niche modeling to develop a first-pass assessment of likely effects of climate change on tree species' distributions in the Cerrado biome by relating known occurrence points to electronic maps summarizing ecological dimensions. Distributional data represent 15,657 records for 162 tree species occurring in Cerrado. By focusing on the trees of one important and highly endemic biome, rather than the biota of a political unit, we were able to focus on developing biome-wide projections. An important limitation of this study is that only those species with more than 30 unique occurrence records were used-hence, the study is limited to those species of relatively broad geographic distribution, and does not take into account those species with narrower geographic distributions. Global climate change scenarios considered were drawn from the general circulation models of HadCM2; we assessed both a conservative and a less conservative scenario of how climates could change over the next 50 year using the (Hadley HHGSDX50 and HHGGAX50 scenarios, respectively): HHGSDX50 assumes 0.5%/yr CO2 increase, whereas HHGGAX50 assumes a 1%/yr CO2 increase. Results of predictions of present and future distributions varied widely among species. Present distributional models predicted areas of 655,211-2,287,482 out of the 2,496,230 km 2 core area of Cerrado in Brazil. All models used to represent species' present geographic ranges were highly statistically significant based on independent test data sets of point localities. Most species were projected to decline seriously in potential distributional area, with both scenarios anticipating losses of >50% of potential distributional area for essentially all species. Indeed, out of 162 species examined, between the two climate change scenarios, 18 (HHGSDX50 scenario) -56 (HHGGAX50 scenario) were predicted to end up without habitable areas in the Cerrado region, and 91 (HHGSDX50 scenario) -123 (HHGGAX50 scenario) species were predicted to decline by more than 90% in potential distributional area in the Cerrado region. Bearing in mind the limitations of the method, and considering its explicit assumptions, these results nevertheless should be cause for ample concern regarding Cerrado biodiversity. Since only 2.25% of the Cerrado biome is presently protected, this future scenario presents a pessimistic forecast, which would likely include widespread species loss from the biome, as well as dramatic shifts to the south and east, further complicating conservation planning efforts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

2003

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“…Past research on the threat of mosquitos and avian malaria to forest birds has shown that the large distributional shifts detailed in our study are possible (Benning et al., 2002; Liao et al., 2015). However, in attempting to explore the viability of translocation of forest bird species across the Hawaiian archipelago, we did not focus our efforts on modeling the distribution of disease and mosquitoes themselves.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Parallel to these climatic trends, recent research has documented substantial range contractions of all native forest birds on Kaua'i over the last four decades, with species losing 25%–70% of their range (Paxton et al., 2016). Given that both temperature and precipitation delineate the distribution of the mosquito vector of avian malaria and consequently the disease‐susceptible native forest birds (Ahumada, LaPointe, & Samuel, 2004; Benning et al., 2002; Liao et al., 2015), future changes in these environmental variables will likely further impact Hawaiian forest birds (Atkinson et al., 2014). In fact, extensive modeling efforts using downscaled end‐of‐century climate projections estimate a range loss of 50%–100% for most Hawaiian forest birds in the absence of effective vector control or increased disease resistance (Fortini et al., 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

Fortini

Kaiser

Vorsino

et al. 2017

Ecology and Evolution

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Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate‐based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end‐of‐century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua’i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate‐based ranges of ‘akeke’e and ‘akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through end‐of‐century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua’i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate‐based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate‐based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate‐vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

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“…In Hawai'i, vector populations and transmission rates become more seasonal as altitude increases; declining temperatures limit larval development and place thermal constraints on development of malarial parasites within adult mosquitoes (LaPointe, 2000;Benning et al, 2002). These conditions generally lead to declines in prevalence and transmission of these diseases as elevation increases (van Riper et al, 1986(van Riper et al, , 2002Atkinson et al, 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These areas are extremely steep, rugged, and isolated. Although a few of the most critically endangered species of honeycreepers may still persist, their long-term future is uncertain given continuing threats posed by invasive plants, diseases, insects, and climate change (Loope, 1998;Benning et al, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence and Distribution of Pox-Like Lesions, Avian Malaria, and Mosquito Vectors in Kīpahulu Valley, Haleakalā National Park, Hawai‘i, Usa

Aruch

Atkinson

Savage

et al. 2007

Journal of Wildlife Diseases

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ABSTRACT:We determined prevalence and altitudinal distribution of introduced avian malarial infections (Plasmodium relictum) and pox-like lesions (Avipoxvirus) in forest birds from Kīpahulu Valley, Haleakalā National Park, on the island of Maui, and we identified primary larval habitat for the mosquito vector of this disease. This intensively managed wilderness area and scientific reserve is one of the most pristine areas of native forest remaining in the state of Hawai'i, and it will become increasingly important as a site for restoration and recovery of endangered forest birds. Overall prevalence of malarial infections in the valley was 8% (11/133) in native species and 4% (4/101) in nonnative passerines; prevalence was lower than reported for comparable elevations and habitats elsewhere in the state. Infections occurred primarily in 'Apapane (Himatione sanguinea) and Hawai'i 'Amakihi (Hemignathus virens) at elevations below 1,400 m. Pox-like lesions were detected in only two Hawai'i 'Amakihi (2%; 2/94) at elevations below 950 m. We did not detect malaria or pox in birds caught at 1,400 m in upper reaches of the valley. Adult mosquitoes (Culex quinquefasciatus) were captured at four sites at elevations of 640, 760, 915, and 975 m, respectively. Culex quinquefasciatus larvae were found only in rock holes along intermittent tributaries of the two largest streams in the valley, but not in standing surface water, pig wallows, ground pools, tree cavities, and tree fern cavities. Mosquito populations in the valley are low, and they are probably influenced by periods of high rainfall that flush stream systems.

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Interactions of climate change with biological invasions and land use in the Hawaiian Islands: Modeling the fate of endemic birds using a geographic information system

Cited by 263 publications

References 24 publications

Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

Prevalence and Distribution of Pox-Like Lesions, Avian Malaria, and Mosquito Vectors in Kīpahulu Valley, Haleakalā National Park, Hawai‘i, Usa

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