Is Longer-Distance Migration Slowing? An Analysis of the Annual Record for England and Wales since the 1970s

Abstract

This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensities is also the case in the UK. It uses annual inter-area migration matrices available for England and Wales since the 1970s by broad age group. The main methodological challenge, arising from changes in the geography of health areas for which the inter-area flows are given, is addressed by adopting the lowest common denominator of 80 areas. Care is also taken to allow for the effect of economic cycles in producing short-term fluctuations on migration rates and to isolate the effect of a sharp rise in rates for 16-24 year olds in the 1990s, which is presumed to be related to the expansion of higher education. The findings suggest that, unlike for the USA, there has not been a substantial decline in the intensity of internal migration between the first two decades of the study period and the second two. If there has been any major decline in the intensity of address changing in England and Wales, it can only be for the within-area moves that this time series does not cover. This latter possibility is examined in a companion paper using a very different data set (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016).

Are People Changing Address Less? An Analysis of Migration within England and Wales, 1971-2011, by Distance of Move

“…This suggests that, as in the US, there has been a marked reduction in the level of shorter‐distance (less than 10 km) moving that has involved almost all types of people. In contrast to this and to US experience, however, the propensity of people to make longer‐distance address changes between decennial censuses has declined much less, largely corroborating the results of a companion study tracking the annual trend in rates of between‐area migration since the 1970s (Champion & Shuttleworth, ). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.…”

“…This study of long‐term trends in the intensity of address changing was prompted partly by the now well‐documented phenomenon of migration decline in the US (Cooke, , ) and also by the finding in our companion paper to this one (Champion & Shuttleworth, ) that, according to the NHSCR's migration data, there has been no substantial fall in overall migration rates in England and Wales since the start of continuous recording in 1971, merely fluctuations largely associated with the business cycle. This paper has reported the results from an alternative data source, namely, the ONS‐LS with its variable on 10‐year migration that helps to even out short‐term cyclical effects.…”

“…Little work on trends in migration rates has been undertaken recently for the UK on a comprehensive and long-term basis. Lomax et al (2014) used a data set that excludes the vast majority of shorter-distance moves and covers just the single decade 2001-2011, while Champion and Shuttleworth (2016) in a companion paper to the present onealso deal only with between-area migration, though managing to extend the time frame back to the 1970s.…”

The spatialities of ageing: Evidencing increasing spatial polarisation between older and younger adults in England and Wales

“…The current policy focus in Britain and elsewhere on 'ageing in place' highlights one possible mechanism expected to increase age segregation. Recent evidence from the UK suggests that residential mobility has decreased among adults aged 65 and over since the 1970s (Champion and Shuttleworth 2016), and evidence from Scotland indicates that this has been particularly pronounced in the new millennium (Graham, Fiori, and Feng 2015). When residential immobility increases, the short-term effect may be to slow the pace of age segregation, but in the longer term, as the population ages, this can act as a driver of age segregation in particular places.…”

Linked lives and constrained spatial mobility: the case of moves related to separation among families with children

“…; Sheller and Urry ; Urry ) has heralded a plethora of studies that tend toward a view of mobility as an increasingly dominant and empowering process of late modernity. Yet, empirical trends in population data for the USA and UK (Champion and Shuttleworth ; Cooke ), and many other Western contexts (Bell and Charles‐Edwards ), show residential mobility/migration propensities across a range of geographical scales have been at least constant, and very often in sustained decline. As such, assumptions linking late modernity to increased mobility appear incorrect, at least in the context of residential moves within countries.…”