Is spread of COVID-19 a chaotic epidemic?

Jones, Andrew; Strigul, Nikolay

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110376

Cited by 39 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Finally, our results confirm the conclusions made by Jones and Stirgul [6], who suggested that the COVID-19 epidemic demonstrates chaotic behavior that should inform future public health policies. Clearly, other data regarding the relevant sociopolitical factors, government regulations, and public health policies should be considered to improve our understanding of the nonlinear dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 infection worldwide and develop effective countermeasures.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…One of the main factors of complex systems is chaotic behavior, in which elements of the system align and compete for survival [5]. Sensitivity to initial conditions renders chaotic systems unpredictable, especially long-term; however, chaotic systems can be described by a few variables and equations [6]. Recently, Jones and Strigul [6] concluded that the chaotic behavior of the spread of COVID-19 represents a deterministic chaotic system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sensitivity to initial conditions renders chaotic systems unpredictable, especially long-term; however, chaotic systems can be described by a few variables and equations [6]. Recently, Jones and Strigul [6] concluded that the chaotic behavior of the spread of COVID-19 represents a deterministic chaotic system. Such knowledge will help to better understand the unpredictable impact of small changes in a multitude of social, behavioral, economic, and political conditions on the dynamics of infection, which should be considered when creating public health management policies and mitigation strategies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Globally

et al. 2021

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In December 2019, China announced the breakout of a new virus identified as coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), which soon grew exponentially and resulted in a global pandemic. Despite strict actions to mitigate the spread of the virus in various countries, COVID-19 resulted in a significant loss of human life in 2020 and early 2021. To better understand the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19, evidence of its chaotic behavior in the US and globally was evaluated. A 0-1 test was used to analyze the time-series data of confirmed daily COVID-19 cases from 1/22/2020 to 12/13/2020. The results show that the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic was chaotic in 55% of the investigated countries. Although the time-series data for the entire US was not chaotic, 39% of individual states displayed chaotic infection spread behavior based on the reported daily cases. Overall, there is evidence of chaotic behavior of the spread of COVID-19 infection worldwide, which adds to the difficulty in controlling and preventing the current pandemic.INDEX TERMS chaotic behavior, COVID-19 pandemic, spread of infections, 0-1 test.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Globally

et al. 2021

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“…Other reasons can be due to the limitation of traditional modelling approaches because of the difficulties in the selection of specific and suitable predictors of the pandemic in a non-experimental environment ( Ramos et al, 2021 ). Jones and Strigul (2021) have recently concluded that the COVID-19 pandemic shows a chaotic behavior, with the consequence that the epidemic scale and behavior may be essentially unpredictable. Although models can provide imperfect simulations of the reality, limited by the incapacity to consider all factors determining COVID-19 transmission dynamics in different settings, they will continue to play a fundamental role in guiding public policies through this and future pandemics ( Meehan et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

International trade as critical parameter of COVID-19 spread that outclasses demographic, economic, environmental, and pollution factors

Bontempi

Coccia

2021

Environmental Research

104

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The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), generating high numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths, is still circulating in 2021 with new variants of the coronavirus, such that the state of emergency remains in manifold countries. Currently, there is still a lack of a full understanding of the factors determining the COVID-19 diffusion that clarify the causes of the variability of infections across different provinces and regions within countries. The main goal of this study is to explain new and main determinants underlying the diffusion of COVID-19 in society. This study focuses on international trade because this factor, in a globalized world, can synthetize different drivers of virus spread, such as mobility patterns, economic potentialities, and social interactions of an investigated areas. A case study research is performed on 107 provinces of Italy, one of the first countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Statistical analyses from March 2020 to February 2021 suggest that total import and export of provinces has a high association with confirmed cases over time (average r > 0.78, p -value <.001). Overall, then, this study suggests total import and export as complex indicator of COVID-19 transmission dynamics that outclasses other common parameters used to justify the COVID-19 spread, given by economic, demographic, environmental, and climate factors. In addition, this study proposes, for the first time, a time-dependent correlation analysis between trade data and COVID-19 infection cases to explain the relation between confirmed cases and social interactions that are a main source of the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent negative impact in society. These novel findings have main theoretical and practical implications directed to include a new parameter in modelling of the diffusion of COVID-19 pandemic to support effective policy responses of crisis management directed to constrain the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and similar infectious diseases in society.

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“…The ongoing global coronavirus outbreak triggered an unprecedented financial and economic crisis, bringing tremendous uncertainty to all sides of human life [1][2][3][4]. Many developing and developed states have drastically restricted people´s mobility aiming to contain further advancement in the virus propagation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the Covid-19 related media coverage upon the five major developing markets

2021

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This paper analyses the influence of the Covid-19 coverage by the social media upon the shape of the sovereign yield curves of the five major developing countries, namely Federative Republic of B razil, Russian Federation, Republic of India, People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of South Africa (BRICS). The coherenc e between the level, slope, and the curvature of the sovereign yield term structures and the Covid-19 medi a coverage is found to vary between low and high ranges, depending on the phases of the pandemic. The empirical estimations of the yield-curve factors a re performed by means of the Diebold–Li modified version of the Nelson–Siegel model. The intervals of low coherence reveal the capacity of the two latent factors, level and slope, to be used for creating cross-factor diversification strategies, workable under crisis conditions, as evidenced on the example of the ongoing pandemic. Diverse coherence patterns are reported on a per-country basis, highlighting a promising potential of sovereign debt investments for designing cross-country and cross-factor fixed-income strategies, capable of hedging downside risks.

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Is spread of COVID-19 a chaotic epidemic?

Cited by 39 publications

References 21 publications

The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Globally

The Chaotic Behavior of the Spread of Infection During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Globally

International trade as critical parameter of COVID-19 spread that outclasses demographic, economic, environmental, and pollution factors

The impact of the Covid-19 related media coverage upon the five major developing markets

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