K-Waves, Reflexive Foresight, and the Future of Anticipation in the Next Socioeconomic Cycle

Wilenius, Markku; Kurki, Sofi

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_36-1

Cited by 2 publications

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“…Macro-level change can be seen through evolutionary theories, development theories, transition theories (such as the multi-level perspective; Geels 2002), theories of cultural transformation, theories of mediatization, Kuhnian paradigms, the French Annales school of long-term history, and utopian thinking. On this level, there are three particularly interesting theories: Frederik Polak’s theory of images of the future as drivers of change, Kondratieff waves that help to understand long-term economic development, and Pentti Malaska’s framework of societal transformation (Malaska 1999; Polak 1973; Wilenius and Kurki 2017). Anticipation is mentioned in the left column on all levels, because the ability of living beings to make use of futures in their action covers micro-, meso-, and macro levels (Poli 2017).…”

Section: Categorization Of Theories In the Survey Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Theories in Futures Studies: Examining the Theory Base of the Futures Field in Light of Survey Results

Minkkinen

2019

World Futures Review

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This review article opens discussion on theories in futures studies by analyzing survey results from Finland Futures Research Centre and using the results as an entry point to discussing theoretical lineages found in the literature. The survey, conducted in 2019, included twenty-four responses from researchers and postgraduate students. Altogether 192 different theories or theoretical frameworks were identified. Social science theories and conceptual frameworks were particularly prevalent in the responses, and the most common recurring themes included systems, complexity, and anticipation. The responses are discussed in terms of three levels: philosophy of science, theories of futures studies, and theories in futures studies. Theories in futures studies are further divided into theories of action, practices, and behavior; theories of change; and theories on the micro-, meso-, and macro levels. The results are contextualized and complemented by proposing five functionally differentiated theoretical approaches: (1) theories for forecasting, (2) theories for representing futures, (3) theories for pursuing desired futures, (4) theories for making sense of anticipatory processes, and (5) radical epistemological critiques. The analysis is intended to open discussion on theories rather than provide an exhaustive list of the most important theories. Nevertheless, we can conclude that the field has a rich theory base which could be emphasized in futures education and developed further. It is crucial that actors in the futures field are aware of the theories that guide them because influential theories take part in making the future.

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Section: Categorization Of Theories In the Survey Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Theories in Futures Studies: Examining the Theory Base of the Futures Field in Light of Survey Results

Minkkinen

2019

World Futures Review

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“…Cyclical theory and empirical data on long economic cycles (i.e. so-called Kondratieff waves) offer an increasingly recognised potential to create a comprehensive empirical view on transformations that we are experiencing today (Wilenius, 2015;Wilenius and Kurki, 2017). They provide clear insights into the primary drivers of unfolding transitions, but in the absence of a theoretical explanation, they offer little insight into the underlying processes of change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated three-layered foresight framework

Dorsser

Taneja

2020

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Purpose The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights. Findings The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends. Research limitations/implications The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework. Practical implications The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments. Social implications The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers. Originality/value The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

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K-Waves, Reflexive Foresight, and the Future of Anticipation in the Next Socioeconomic Cycle

Cited by 2 publications

References 12 publications

Theories in Futures Studies: Examining the Theory Base of the Futures Field in Light of Survey Results

Theories in Futures Studies: Examining the Theory Base of the Futures Field in Light of Survey Results

An integrated three-layered foresight framework

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