Kajian Kebijakan Pemerintah Indonesia Dalam Perdagangan Cpo Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan Analisis Integrasi Pasar

Hafizah, Dian

doi:10.31186/jagrisep.10.2.154-170

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Yang artinya, bahwa setiap kenaikan gap harga antara CPO internasional dan harga ekspor sebesar Rp1 juta/ton maka akan berdampak pada penurunan konsumsi CPO domestik pada industri hilir sebesar 0,43 persen dengan asumsi bahwa variabel lainnya konstan, begitu pula sebaliknya. Menurut Hafizah (2011) volatilitas dari harga CPO internasional pada CIF Rotterdam akan langsung mempengaruhi pergerakan harga CPO domestik, sedangkan volatilitas harga CPO domestik tidak akan mempengaruhi harga CPO CIF Rotterdam. Dari fenomena tersebut menjelaskan bahwa pasar spot Indonesia menjadikan pasar forward Rotterdam sebagai acuan dalam menentukan harga CPO di Indonesia.…”

Section: Analisis Regresi Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Industri Kelapa...unclassified

Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Industri Kelapa Sawit terhadap Permintaan CPO pada Industri Hilir

Irawan¹,

Soesilo

2021

j. ekonomi & kebijak. publik

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The Indonesian palm oil industry has an important role in the national economy as a foreign exchange earner, a provider of employment and a source of household income. In developing the palm oil industry, Indonesia only emphasizes on CPO exports so that the added value obtained is still low. Domestic consumption of CPO is only about 30 percent, while the other 70 percent is exported. This study aims to analyze the impact of the government's downstream policy on CPO consumption in the downstream industry. The analysis technique used in this study is Fixed Effect Model on panel data from the downstream CPO industries with the 2000-2015 research year period. The results showed that the downstream policy and the export duty did not have a significant effect on CPO consumption. The number of companies and international CPO prices have a positive and significant effect, while the price gap and production output in the previous year have a significant negative effect on CPO consumption. Industries that have a significant influence in absorbing domestic CPO are the palm cooking oil industry, the pet food ration industry, the basic oleochemical and biodiesel industry, and the edible oil and vegetable fats industry. Meanwhile, the coconut cooking oil industry and the soap and cleaning industry did not have a significant effect. From the results of this study, it is suggested that downstream policies should be accompanied by accelerated in infrastructure development and adequate energy availability so as not to hamper production and smooth logistics.

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Section: Analisis Regresi Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Industri Kelapa...unclassified

Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Industri Kelapa Sawit terhadap Permintaan CPO pada Industri Hilir

Irawan¹,

Soesilo

2021

j. ekonomi & kebijak. publik

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“…However, as a CPO exporting country, Malaysia had also imported CPO from several countries for further processing. Based on data obtained from Oil World, in 2007 Malaysia imported CPO from Indonesia, Thailand (39,3 thousand tons), and papua New Guinea (6,1 thousands tons) (Hafizah, 2011).…”

Section: General Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Palm Oil Price in Southeast Asia

Lestari

Oktavilia

2020

AEFR

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<p align="justify">This study aimed to analyze some factors influencing fluctuations of palm oil (CPO) prices in 3 (three) countries in Southeast Asia. This study analyzes the factors that influence domestic CPO prices from the supply and demand side. International CPO prices, coconut oil prices, and CPO consumption are factors that influence domestic CPO price fluctuations from the demand side, while CPO production is a factor affecting domestic CPO price fluctuations from the supply side. This study uses a quantitative method, where the type of data used in this study is panel data taken from 3 countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand from 1998-2019. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression, where the variables used included domestic CPO prices, international CPO prices, coconut oil prices, CPO production, and CPO consumption as independent variables. This study shows that all the independent variables significantly affect the domestic CPO price variable, except for the CPO consumption variable, and all the independent variables have a positive effect on the domestic CPO price variable, except for the CPO production variable. The international CPO price variable is the most dominant in influencing domestic CPO price fluctuations<em>.</em></p>

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Multivariate generalized autoregressive score model (case study: vegetable oils and crude oil price data)

Jayanti

Sadik

Afendi

2021

J. Phys.: Conf. Ser.

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A multivariate econometric model can be used to forecast volatilities and dynamic correlations between various assets. Volatilities and dynamic correlations forecasting are important applied in risk management, hedging, asset allocation, and asset pricing options. This study uses a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model to analyze and forecast volatilities and dynamic correlations of the weekly prices of Crude Palm Oil, coconut oil, soybean oil, and crude oil. The GAS model is a new framework based on a score-driven time series model for updating time-varying parameters. Another multivariate econometric model is the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model as a comparison. The empirical experiments regarding the distribution of return data show that the data can be approximated by the multivariate t-student distribution. The likelihood ratio test in the multivariate GAS model shows that the time-varying parameters in the GAS model are volatility, correlation, and location parameters. The evaluation performance model based on RMSE and MAE show that the multivariate GAS model has better performance in estimating and forecasting volatilities than the DCC GARCH model. Multivariate GAS models have better performance in estimating and forecasting the dynamic correlation on returns of CPO and soybean oil.

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Kajian Kebijakan Pemerintah Indonesia Dalam Perdagangan Cpo Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan Analisis Integrasi Pasar

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Industri Kelapa Sawit terhadap Permintaan CPO pada Industri Hilir

Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Industri Kelapa Sawit terhadap Permintaan CPO pada Industri Hilir

Analysis of Palm Oil Price in Southeast Asia

Multivariate generalized autoregressive score model (case study: vegetable oils and crude oil price data)

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