Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities

Mishra, Abhijeet; Humpenöder, Florian; Churkinа, Galina; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Beier, Felicitas; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Lotze‐Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w

Cited by 149 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…A widely promoted solution to tackle embodied emissions of materials, advocated by researchers and policymakers, is for timber to replace concrete and steel in construction (Churkina et al 2020;Mishra et al 2022). Yet, a building constructed from timber alone just transfers carbon from one carbon pool (the forest) to another carbon pool (the built environment) (Arehart et al 2021).…”

Section: Global Northmentioning

confidence: 99%

Barriers and opportunities of fast-growing biobased material use in buildings

Göswein

Arehart

Phan-huy

et al. 2022

Buildings and Cities

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Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires immediate and drastic reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A significant contributor to anthropogenic global GHG emissions is the production of building materials. Biobased materials offer the potential to reduce such emissions and could be deployed in the short term. Timber construction has received the main attention from policy and industry. However, the implementation of timber construction at the global scale is constrained by the availability of sustainably managed forest supplies. A viable alternative is fast-growing plants and the use of agricultural waste products. These can be deployed faster and are better aligned to local supplies of biomass and demands from the building sector. Fast-growing materials are generally able to achieve net-cooling impacts much faster due to their short rotation periods. The GHG emissions due to the production of biogenic building material can be compensated by regrowth of the new (replacement) plant and, overall, this will absorb CO 2 from the atmosphere. A range of biogenic materials can be promoted and used as insulation materials and structural materials.

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Section: Global Northmentioning

confidence: 99%

Barriers and opportunities of fast-growing biobased material use in buildings

Göswein

Arehart

Phan-huy

et al. 2022

Buildings and Cities

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“…Thus, with the urbanization process, we will see a rise in wood products used for home applications and constructions. Mishra et al (2022) found that if 90% of the new urban people build their houses with wooden materials, 106 Pg of CO 2 will be sequestered by 2100. Skjerstad et al (2021) suggested that the sawn wood consumption will continue increasing in line with the future economic growth.…”

Section: Socioeconomic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential for storing carbon by harvested wood products

Zhao

Wei

2022

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Forest ecosystems are a critical component of the global carbon cycle, which stores carbon in both vegetation biomass and soil organic matter. Timber harvesting can laterally move the carbon stored in forest sectors to harvested wood products (HWPs) and thus create an HWPs carbon pool. The carbon stored in HWPs is allocated to end-use wood products (e.g., paper, furniture), landfills (e.g., waste wood materials), and charcoal (e.g., non-energy use biochar). Environmental change is predicted to have far-reaching effects on the carbon stored in HWPs by altering the timber supply. In addition, technological advancement in the wood industry accelerates the carbon inflow rate by promoting processing efficiency and reduces the outflow rate by creating innovative wood products with a longer service life. Socioeconomic factors such as population and household income also contribute to the carbon stock changes in wood products by expanding or reducing the demand. Given numerous factors that are correlated with the size of HWPs carbon pool, an advanced and comprehensive understanding of these factors on modifying the HWPs carbon storage is essential to modeling and predicting the carbon stored in HWPs, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and global warming; therefore, we reviewed, summarized, and discussed the function of these factors in regulating the carbon stored in HWPs.

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“…The substitution option exhibits an additional benefit alongside lower embodied emissions, as wooden construction materials (WCMs) act as long-term carbon storages. The use of these materials has been suggested as a strategy to decrease the consumption of more carbon intensive materials [8][9][10][11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[21,22]), and ultimately on a global level (e.g. [10,23]). These studies present a clear trend of lower embodied emissions when using WCM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can future cities grow a carbon storage equal to forests?

Talvitie

Kinnunen

Amiri

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Urban areas have experienced exponential growth since the industrial revolution and by virtue, the urban population has followed. Current projections suggest that this growth has yet to reach its peak implying that urban developments will continue to sprawl into untouched territories. This growth and subsequent sprawl will undoubtedly come at the expense of forested areas. This study presents a Carbon Storage Factor indicator for new urban developments. It is a novel concept which integrates urban planning, land use changes and wooden construction. The factor sets a carbon storage requirement for new urban areas that are developed at the expense of forested areas. The study is conducted in four parts. First, we estimate the carbon storage potential of forest areas via existing literature and databases. Then we collect all new development and construction estimates up to the year 2050 for the whole metropolitan region in Finland. Next, we conduct scenario analyses for different demand levels of wood in projected residential developments. Finally, we compare the carbon storage potential of the future building stock to the forest areas planned for development. The data used is provided by the regional authority. The results detail that the future residential building stock can store between 128–733 kt of carbon. The lower level implies that current construction methods can only partially preserve the carbon storage of an area in buildings. However, the higher level suggests future buildings to be able to exceed the carbon storage potential of forest areas by nearly 47 tC/ha. The study reminds that an increased use of wood is dependent on sustainable forest management practices. Furthermore, it is not our purpose to promote urban development into entirely new areas but rather encourage urban planners to consider the carbon balance when it is the only viable option.

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Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities

Cited by 149 publications

References 74 publications

Barriers and opportunities of fast-growing biobased material use in buildings

Barriers and opportunities of fast-growing biobased material use in buildings

The potential for storing carbon by harvested wood products

Can future cities grow a carbon storage equal to forests?

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