Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios

Zhang, Shengqing; Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Wang, Wenyu; Cai, Wei; Chen, Nengcheng; Hu, Sheng; Luo, Xiangang; Li, Jiang; Zhan, Chesheng

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155238

Cited by 118 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…SSP sets out how various socioeconomic factors, including population, economic growth, urbanization, etc., will change in the future. In addition, SSP fully considers the growth rules of various socio-economic factors and can be used in combination with the climate change mitigation targets set by RCP [ 42 ].…”

Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Peaking Global and G20 Countries’ CO2 Emissions under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Yuan

Feng

Guo

2022

IJERPH

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Mitigating climate change requires long-term global efforts. The aim of this study is to simulate the possible paths of CO2 emissions in G20 countries and the world from 2020 to 2050, by using the STIRPAT model and SSP scenarios with different constraints (SSP baseline, SSP-3.4). The results show that: (1) the world’s CO2 emissions cannot peak in the SSP baseline scenarios, but can peak in the SSP-3.4 scenarios through four paths other than the high fossil energy consumption path; (2) for G20 countries, in the SSP baseline scenarios, 13 countries such as China, the United States, and the United Kingdom can achieve the peak, while six countries such as Argentina, India, and Saudi Arabia cannot. In the SSP-3.4 scenarios, Saudi Arabia cannot achieve the peak, while other countries can achieve the peak, and most of them are likely to achieve significant CO2 emission reductions by 2050; (3) climate goals have a crowding-out effect on other sustainable development goals, with less impact on developed countries and a greater impact on developing countries; and (4) the optimization of the energy structure and a low energy intensity can greatly advance the peak time of CO2 emissions.

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Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Peaking Global and G20 Countries’ CO2 Emissions under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Yuan

Feng

Guo

2022

IJERPH

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“…The PLUS model obtains the transition rules by analyzing the growing patches of each changed land use. A random forest classification algorithm is used to explore the relationships between the growth in each land use type and the multiple driving factors [47,48]. The model has been applied in the latest land use simulation studies [47,[49][50][51].…”

Section: Land Use Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

Yang

2022

Sustainability

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Rapid urbanization and human activities enhanced threats to the degradation of various ecosystem services in modern urban agglomerations. This study explored the response of ecosystem service values (ESVs) to land use changes and the trade-offs among various ESVs in urban agglomerations under different future development scenarios. The patch-general land use simulation (PLUS) model and ESV calculation method were used to simulate the ESVs of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration under the Business As Usual scenario (BAU), Ecological Conservation scenario (EC), and Economic Development scenario (ED) in 2030. Global and local Moran’s I were used to detect the spatial distribution pattern, and correlation analysis was used to measure trade-offs among ecosystem services. The results showed that: (1) The simulated result of land use in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration showed high accuracy compared to the actual observed result of the same period, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.912. From 2000 to 2030, land use changes were significant, with the rapid decrease in farmland and an increase in construction land. The area of woodland increased significantly under the EC scenario, and the area of construction land increased rapidly under the ED scenario. (2) The decline of total ESV was CNY 218 million from 2000 to 2020, and ESVs remained the downward trend in the BAU and ED scenarios compared to 2020, decreasing by CNY 156 million and CNY 4731 million, respectively. An increasing trend of ESV showed under the EC scenario, with a growth of CNY 849 million. (3) Significant spatial autocorrelation showed in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, as the Global Moran’s I were all positive and the p-values were zero. The ESV grids mainly showed “High-High” clusters in the mountainous areas and “Low-Low” clusters in plain areas. Except for food production, a majority of ecosystem services exhibited positive synergistic relationships. In future planning and development, policymakers should focus on the coordinated development of the urbanization process and ecological preservation to build an ecological safety pattern.

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“…The use of PLUS for land use prediction simulation is not only conducive to better mining of the driving factors of LUCC [56], but the high-resolution changes in land use can be better represented by simulation. The model is beneficial to optimizing the land use model under multiple scenarios in the Kashgar region [35].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Security in the Kashgar Region Based on Grid GIS

Rao

2022

Sustainability

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Predicting trends in land use/cover change (LUCC) and assessing future ecological security (ES) can help effectively balance regional ecological conservation and economic development. In this study, a land use simulation model was used to predict the spatial-temporal variation in land use in Kashgar in 2030 under three scenarios (inertial development, agricultural land protection, and forest and rangeland conservation). Subsequently, by combining the pressure–state–response model and predicted land use, the ES of the Kashgar region in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were evaluated. We found that (1) only agricultural land and built-up land in the Kashgar region increased from 2000–2020 by 4174.79 and 434.44 km2, respectively. (2) The area of the region belonging to a generally safe level or above decreased from 38.36% in 2000 to 36.89% in 2010 and then increased to 37.71% in 2020. (3) In 2030, the ES status under the three scenarios will be improved, among which the agricultural land protection scenario corresponds to the best ES status. This research is valuable for deeply understanding the interaction mechanism between LUCC and ES in typical artificial oases in arid areas of the Kashgar region and sustaining relatively stable internal structures and socioeconomic activities in the arid oasis of the Kashgar region.

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Land use/land cover prediction and analysis of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under different scenarios

Cited by 118 publications

References 81 publications

Peaking Global and G20 Countries’ CO2 Emissions under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Peaking Global and G20 Countries’ CO2 Emissions under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Security in the Kashgar Region Based on Grid GIS

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