Led Astray

Abstract

This article examines the impact that rebel and state leaders have on civil war duration. It argues that leaders’ incentives to avoid punishment at the hands of internal audiences and opponents influence their strategic decision-making during war. Specifically, leaders who bear responsibility for involvement in the war have a higher expectation of punishment should they perform poorly, particularly for rebel and high-risk state leaders. As a result, these leaders have incentives to gamble for resurrection, extending ongoing wars in the hope of turning the tide and avoiding punishment. This suggests that civil wars are less likely to end when responsible leaders hold power, especially if the responsible leader is highly vulnerable to punishment. These propositions are tested using original data on all rebel and state leaders involved in civil conflicts between 1980 and 2011. Results support the hypothesized relationship between leader responsibility and war duration.

Introducing ROLE: A database of rebel leader attributes in armed conflict

“…Two recent studies break new ground. First, Prorok (2016Prorok ( , 2018 examines the influence of rebel (and state) leaders' war culpability -whether they initiated or inherited a conflict -on their willingness to continue the fight. Second, Doctor (2020) uses original data on rebel leaders' military and political experiences to explain rebel fragmentation in civil wars.…”