Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina H.; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann P.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0031-7

Cited by 145 publications

(122 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

118

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Drought disaster risk reflects the interaction between hydroclimatic systems, and the vulnerability of exposed people, economies, and ecosystems (Beckage et al, ; Sayers et al, ). It is a measure of the potential impact resulting from the magnitude of a drought and is calculated as the conditional expectancy of experiencing harmful consequences over a certain time period (Equation 1, UNISDR, ).

Risk = Hazard \times Exposure \times Vulnerability

…”

Section: Components Of a Traditional Drought Risk Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Droughts are a persistent and costly hazard impacting human and environmental systems. As climate variability continues to increase and socioeconomic development influences the distribution of wealth and people, drought risk is expected to increase in many parts of the world. The unique characteristics of droughtsnamely their slow onset, large spatiotemporal extent, human-influenced propagation, delayed impacts and teleconnection potential-make it difficult to correctly assess drought impact and calculate risk. Further complicating this calculation is the capacity for humans to make adaptive decisions before, during, and after a drought event, which in turn alters expected impacts. In this sense, droughts are equally a social and hydroclimatic issue. Risk perception is one of the main factors driving adaptation decisions, yet most models neglect how humans view and respond to risk, and in particular how experiences influence decisions through time. In this overview, we describe a framework that extends the traditional risk modeling approach to include the two-way feedback between the transient adaptation decisions and drought exposure, vulnerability and hazard. We discuss how a sociohydrologic, agent-based modeling setup, focused on individual and collective actions, can simulate the adaptive behaviors of different stakeholders to examine how emergent actions might influence projected drought risk. We suggest such an approach can provide a test-bed for understanding adaptive behaviors in an increasingly drought-prone world and could allow for better prioritization of drought adaptation strategies; refined understanding of future scenarios; and a vehicle to drive planning and resilience building. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Engineering Water > Planning Water Engineering Water > Methods K E Y W O R D S adaptation, agent-based modeling, behavior, drought, risk, sociohydrology

show abstract

Risk = Hazard \times Exposure \times Vulnerability

…”

Section: Components Of a Traditional Drought Risk Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Do individuals attribute these experiences to climate change? Can these perceptions prompt increased policy action as climate impacts intensify [2][3][4]? These are all empirical questions that have drawn the attention of social scientists over two decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How will climate change shape climate opinion?

Howe

Marlon

Mildenberger

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

184

129

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As climate change intensifies, global publics will experience more unusual weather and extreme weather events. How will individual experiences with these weather trends shape climate change beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors? In this article, we review 73 papers that have studied the relationship between climate change experiences and public opinion. Overall, we find mixed evidence that weather shapes climate opinions. Although there is some support for a weak effect of local temperature and extreme weather events on climate opinion, the heterogeneity of independent variables, dependent variables, study populations, and research designs complicate systematic comparison. To advance research on this critical topic, we suggest that future studies pay careful attention to differences between self-reported and objective weather data, causal identification, and the presence of spatial autocorrelation in weather and climate data. Refining research designs and methods in future studies will help us understand the discrepancies in results, and allow better detection of effects, which have important practical implications for climate communication. As the global population increasingly experiences weather conditions outside the range of historical experience, researchers, communicators, and policymakers need to understand how these experiences shape-and are shaped by-public opinions and behaviors.

show abstract

“…If we extend this idea to human socio-economic evolution and if we assume that strategies aiming for zero carbon dioxide emission are boundary strategies, then the conclusion must be that they will never be reached as long as heritable variation or non-heritable variation in our population remains. Beckage et al . (2018) modelled the feedback between human behaviour and projected climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptational lags during periods of environmental change

Dooren

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

16Effects of climate change can be handled by means of mitigation and adaptation. In the 17 biological sciences, adaptations are evolved solutions of engineering problems where 18 organisms need to match an ecological challenge. Based on Adaptive Dynamics theory, a 19 definition is proposed of adapted states and adaptational lags which is applicable during 20 periods with environmental change of any speed and to any character. Adaptation can thus be 21 studied even when it emerges from complex eco-evolutionary processes and targets for 22 adaptation are not defined or known a priori. The approach is exemplified with a model for 23 delayed germination (germination probability) in an annual plant, which is the classic life 24 history example for adaptation to uncertain environments. Plasticity and maternal effects are 25 added to the model to investigate lags in these modes of trait determination which are often 26 presumed to be adaptive. In the example, adaptational lags are not converging to an 27 equilibrium and change sign. For the model version with plasticity and maternal effect 28 weights, the presence of a lag in these trait components can temporarily change the direction 29 of selection on the genotypic weight. Adaptational lag is related to the establishment 30 probability of mutants in the model example. It could therefore have practical relevance. A 31 first general classification is proposed of model structures that include both adaptive control 32 and evolutionary adaptation. 33 34 35 36 Climate change generates massive challenges. Different species will show a range of 37 responses to environmental change (Newman et al. 2011), and these can be to our own 38 advantage or not. Initially, human policy to deal with climate change mostly focused on 39 mitigating our interaction with the environment (Schipper 2006), by dampening the effects of 40 gradual environmental changes or by reducing the speed and magnitude of change and its 41 consequences. However, awareness has increased that human adaptation is necessary, merits 42 attention and that it interacts with mitigation (Kane & Shogren 2000). 43 Adaptation is a term in biology which predates the development of evolutionary biology 44 (Amundson 1996). The term specifies that the engineering problem of matching organisms to 45 an existing ecological challenge has been solved for the traits that are adapted. Natural 46 selection and evolutionary responses are seen as the main problem solvers in this respect and 47 by means of strategic compromises or a trait development responding to cues, adaptation can 48 be to a range of variable environments (Levins 1968). However, in the context of human 49 climate change responses, "adaptation" has become reframed over the years from this eco-50 evolutionary meaning applicable to any organism into a policy response (Schipper 2006), 51 from describing a dynamics of autonomously evolving systems into a concept more in line 52 with human adaptive systems control towards a given target (Tyukin 2011). This trend makes 53...

show abstract

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

Cited by 145 publications

References 28 publications

Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

How will climate change shape climate opinion?

Adaptational lags during periods of environmental change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About