Linking teleconnection patterns to European temperature – a multiple linear regression model

Rust, Henning W.; Richling, Andy; Bissolli, Peter; Ulbrich, Uwe

doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0642

Cited by 51 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…10). The positive temperature anomalies in many regions of Europe (among them in the part of the continent where Bosnia and Herzegovina is located) were associated with the EA pattern (Rust, H. W. et al, 2015). In Bosnia and Herzegovina (Mostar), the positive relation between annual EA pattern index and Tmax and Tmin was strong and significant (determined correlation coefficients were 0.656 and 0.725, respectively).…”

Section: Results and Disscussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…10.). Позитивне температурне аномалије у многим регионима Европе (међу којима и у дијелу континента гдје се налази Босна и Херцеговина) повезане су са EA осцилацијом (Rust, H. W. et al, 2015). У Босни и Херцеговини (Mостар), позитивна повезаност између годишњег индекса ЕА осцилације и Tmax и Tmin је јака и значајна (утврђени коефицијенти корелације износе 0.656 и 0.725, респективно).…”

Section: Results and Disscussionunclassified

“…The extreme temperature variability is strongly influenced by the NAO, especially in winter season. During the positive NAO phase, the warmer maritime air masses are advected to Europe by stronger-than-average westerlies over the middle latitudes associated with low pressure anomalies over the region of the Icelandic low and anomalously high pressures across the subtropical Atlantic (Rust, H. W. et al, 2015;(Rust, H. W. et al, 2015;Hurrell, J. W. et al, 2003). Веома висок позитиван NAO индекс од почетка 1980-их година условио је значајан дио осмотреног загријавања изнад Европе у овом дијелу године (Hurrell, J.…”

Section: Results and Disscussionunclassified

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Трендови Индекса Екстремних Температура У Босни И Херцеговини ‒ Примјер Мостара

Попов¹,

Гњато²,

Трбић³

2017

HER

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Сажетак: У раду су анализирани трендови индекса екстремних температура у Босни и Херцеговини. Дневне минималне и максималне температуре у периоду . године са метеоролошке станице Мостар (који је изабран за студију случаја) коришћене су за израчунавање 18 индекса употребом RClimDex (1.0) софтвера. Максималне и минималне температуре показују тенденцију раста током цијеле године. Позитивни трендови топлих температурних индекса израженији су од опадајућих трендова хладних температурних индекса. Међутим, оба тренда указују да је на овом подручју присутно загријавање климатског система. Осмотрени трендови најизраженији су у сезони љето, затим у сезонама прољеће и зима. Утврђена је значајна позитивна/негативна корелација између Источно-атлантске осцилације и топлих/хладних температурних индекса током цијеле године. Зимске и прољећне температуре такође су повезане са Сјеверно-атлантском и Арктичком осцилацијом, респективно. Кључне ријечи: екстремне температуре, индекси, тренд, климатске промјене, Мостар (Босна и Херцеговина).Original scientific paper TRENDS IN EXTREME TEMPERATURE INDICES IN Аbstract:The study analyzes trends in extreme temperature indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures during the 1961-2016 periods from Mostar meteorological station (which was chosen as a case study area) were used for calculation of 18 indices in the RClimDex (1.0) software. The maximum and minimum temperatures displayed a warming tendency throughout the year. The positive trends in warm temperature indices were stronger than the downward trends in cold temperature indices. However, both trends indicate that the climate system warming is present. The observed trends were most prominent in summer, then in spring and winter. The significant positive/negative correlation between East-Atlantic pattern and warm/cold temperature indices was determined throughout the year. Winter and spring temperatures were also related to the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, respectively.

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Section: Results and Disscussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Results and Disscussionunclassified

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Трендови Индекса Екстремних Температура У Босни И Херцеговини ‒ Примјер Мостара

Попов¹,

Гњато²,

Трбић³

2017

HER

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“…A significant positive correlation was found between the summertime NAO index and July-August mean temperatures over the UK for the period 1900-2007 [19]. In a study of the effects of many different large-scale atmospheric indices on European climate, the summertime NAO had the highest correlation coefficients with temperatures in July in the UK [20]. The Arctic oscillation had smaller correlation coefficients with July temperatures, and the Polar/Eurasian (POLEUR) and East Asia/Western Russian (EAWR) indices had weaker effects [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…In a study of the effects of many different large-scale atmospheric indices on European climate, the summertime NAO had the highest correlation coefficients with temperatures in July in the UK [20]. The Arctic oscillation had smaller correlation coefficients with July temperatures, and the Polar/Eurasian (POLEUR) and East Asia/Western Russian (EAWR) indices had weaker effects [20]. Other indices studied in [20] had little or no effect on summer temperatures in the UK.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom

et al. 2017

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Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds.

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Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

Dalelane

Dobrynin

Fröhlich

2020

Preprint

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The variability of the sea level pressure in the North Atlantic sector is the most important driver of weather and climate in Europe. The main mode of this variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explains up to 50% of the total variance. Other modes, known as the Scandinavian index, East Atlantic, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern, complement the variability of the sea level pressure, thereby influencing the European climate. It has been shown previously that a seasonal prediction system with enhanced winter NAO skill due to ensemble subsampling entails an improved prediction of the surface climate variables as well. Here, we show that a refined subselection procedure that accounts both for the NAO index and for the three additional modes of sea level pressure variability is able to further increase the prediction skill of wintertime mean sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, and precipitation across Europe.Plain Language Summary Atmospheric winter conditions in Europe are primarily controlled by the varying pressure field over the North Atlantic, influencing temperature and precipitation in Europe. Current seasonal forecasts of European winter climate, though highly desirable for society and economy, are as yet not fully reliable. There exist a number of autumn predictors, such as sea surface and stratospheric temperature, Eurasian snow depth, and Arctic sea ice, that impact on the upcoming pressure regimes in a predictable way. The present dynamical seasonal forecast systems respond still too weakly to these known seasonal predictors. But the relationship is reproduced quite well by means of statistics. In combination, statistical and dynamical forecasts have the potential to improve forecasts of the North Atlantic pressure conditions and thereby affected variables like temperature and precipitation in Europe considerably. We extend an existing hybrid seasonal forecast procedure by considering more modes of variability of the Atlantic pressure regimes than just the North Atlantic Oscillation. In this way, we are able to improve the forecasts for temperature and precipitation over wider regions in Europe. Cohen et al. (2019) argue that new statistical techniques can increase the accuracy of seasonal forecasts and advocate the development of hybrid dynamical-statistical forecasts to produce more robust seasonal predictions. Hybrid forecasts based on circulation specification were presented, for example, by Baker, Shaffrey, and Scaife (2018) and Dobrynin et al. (2018).In boreal winter, European weather and climate is dominated by the zonal propagation of planetary and synoptic-scale waves. This large-scale circulation is an extremely high-dimensional phenomenon in real RESEARCH LETTER

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Linking teleconnection patterns to European temperature – a multiple linear regression model

Cited by 51 publications

References 35 publications

Трендови Индекса Екстремних Температура У Босни И Херцеговини ‒ Примјер Мостара

Трендови Индекса Екстремних Температура У Босни И Херцеговини ‒ Примјер Мостара

Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom

Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher-Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

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