Local protection bubbles: an interpretation of the decrease in the velocity of coronavirus’s spread in the city of São Paulo

Pinto, José Paulo Guedes; Magalhães, Patrícia Camargo; Figueiredo, Gerusa Maria; Alves, Domingos; Segura-Angel, Diana Maritza

doi:10.1101/2020.08.11.20173039

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Essa afirmativa tem sido baseada em modelos matemáticos e o limiar no qual a imunidade de grupo é atingida tem sido objeto de controvérsias. É possível que áreas com menores prevalências estejam vivendo uma instável estabilidade, que alguns autores têm chamado de bolhas 46 , que por sua vez podem ser "rompidas" a qualquer momento aumentando os casos de Covid-19.…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

Covid-19 no nordeste do Brasil: entre o lockdown e o relaxamento das medidas de distanciamento social

Ximenes

Albuquerque

Martelli

et al. 2021

Ciênc. saúde coletiva

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Resumo Mesmo no período em que a pandemia de Covid-19 encontrava-se em crescimento no Nordeste do Brasil, iniciou-se a adoção de medidas de flexibilização do distanciamento social. O objetivo do estudo é o de avaliar a pertinência das propostas de flexibilização, tomando-se em conta a situação da pandemia em cada local e o momento em que foram adotadas. Tendo como referência as diretrizes da OMS, foram construídos e analisados indicadores operacionais para cada diretriz, no contexto da região Nordeste. Para análise do comportamento da epidemia, conforme indicadores selecionados, foram usadas técnicas de Joinpoint Trend Analysis, mapas de calor, razão de taxas e comparação da tendência temporal entre capitais e interior dos estados. O pico do crescimento semanal ocorreu em maio-julho/2020 (semanas epidemiológicas 19 a 31). Na maioria das capitais não se observou tendência decrescente simultânea do número de casos e óbitos nos 14 dias prévios à flexibilização. Em todos os estados o quantitativo de testes realizados foi insuficiente. Na semana epidemiológica 24 os percentuais estaduais de ocupação de leitos de UTI/Covid-19 foram próximos ou superiores 70%. A situação epidemiológica das nove capitais dos estados do Nordeste, no momento em que a decisão de flexibilização foi tomada, mostra que nenhuma delas atendia aos critérios e parâmetros recomendados pela OMS.

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Section: Discussionunclassified

Covid-19 no nordeste do Brasil: entre o lockdown e o relaxamento das medidas de distanciamento social

Ximenes

Albuquerque

Martelli

et al. 2021

Ciênc. saúde coletiva

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“…The validation of these models are limited to statistical data analysis [18] and small-scale simulations (200 -100,000 agents) [15,16]. Social bubbles have been studied by [20,24,27] using ABMs. However, these ABMs are modeled with limited interaction spaces [20], or do not consider local demographic variations [27], or limit the number of agents to about 100,000 [7].…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Social bubbles have been studied by [20,24,27] using ABMs. However, these ABMs are modeled with limited interaction spaces [20], or do not consider local demographic variations [27], or limit the number of agents to about 100,000 [7].…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cohorting to isolate asymptomatic spreaders: An agent-based simulation study on the Mumbai Suburban Railway

Talekar,

Shriram,

Vaidhiyan

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The Mumbai Suburban Railways, locals, are a key transit infrastructure of the city and is crucial for resuming normal economic activity. Due to high density during transit, the potential risk of disease transmission is high, and the government has taken a wait and see approach to resume normal operations. To reduce disease transmission, policymakers can enforce reduced crowding and mandate wearing of masks. Cohorting -forming groups of travelers that always travel together, is an additional policy to reduce disease transmission on locals without severe restrictions. Cohorting allows us to: (𝑖) form traveler bubbles, thereby decreasing the number of distinct interactions over time; (𝑖𝑖) potentially quarantine an entire cohort if a single case is detected, making contact tracing more efficient, and (𝑖𝑖𝑖) target cohorts for testing and early detection of symptomatic as well as asymptomatic cases. Studying impact of cohorts using compartmental models is challenging because of the ensuing representational complexity. Agent-based models provide a natural way to represent cohorts along with the representation of the cohort members with the larger social network. This paper describes a novel multi-scale agent-based model to study the impact of cohorting strategies on COVID-19 dynamics in Mumbai. We achieve this by modeling the Mumbai urban region using a detailed agent-based model comprising of 12.4 million agents. Individual cohorts and their inter-cohort interactions as they travel on locals are modeled using local mean field approximations. The resulting multi-scale model in conjunction with a detailed disease transmission and intervention simulator is used to assess various cohorting strategies. The results provide a quantitative trade-off between cohort size and its impact on disease dynamics and well being. The results show that cohorts can provide significant benefit in terms of reduced transmission without significantly impacting ridership and or economic & social activity.

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A multiagent coronavirus model with territorial vulnerability parameters

Magalhães

Pinto

Angel³

2020

Preprint

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We developed a simple and user-friendly simulator called MD Corona that is based on a multiagent model and describes the transmission dynamics of coronavirus for a given location considering three setting parameters: population density, social-isolation rate, and effective transmission probability. The latter is represented by the Corona Protection Index (CPI) - a measurement of a given territory′s vulnerability to the coronavirus that includes characteristics of the health system and socio-economic development, as well as infrastructure. The dynamic model also relies on other real epidemiological parameters. The model is calibrated by using immunity surveys and provides accurate predictions and indications of the different dynamic mechanisms. Our simulation studies clearly demonstrate the existence of multiple epidemic curves in the same city due to different vulnerabilities to the virus across regions. And it elucidates the phenomenon of the epidemic slowing despite a reduction in social-distancing policies, understood as a consequence of ″local protection bubbles″. The simulator can be used for scientific outreach purposes, bringing science closer to the general public in order to raise awareness and increase engagement about the effectiveness of social distancing in reducing the transmissibility of the virus, but also to support effective actions to mitigate the spread of the virus.

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Local protection bubbles: an interpretation of the decrease in the velocity of coronavirus’s spread in the city of São Paulo

Cited by 3 publications

References 27 publications

Covid-19 no nordeste do Brasil: entre o lockdown e o relaxamento das medidas de distanciamento social

Covid-19 no nordeste do Brasil: entre o lockdown e o relaxamento das medidas de distanciamento social

Cohorting to isolate asymptomatic spreaders: An agent-based simulation study on the Mumbai Suburban Railway

A multiagent coronavirus model with territorial vulnerability parameters

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