314As treatments to alleviate symptoms and to slow the progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD) emerge, an increasingly urgent dilemma for physicians is also developing: which of the many elderly individuals with memory complaints will develop Alzheimer's disease, and would therefore be candidates for preventive therapies? An important goal of current research must be to establish useful pre-clinical diagnostic and predictive guidelines, and this can only emerge from longitudinal follow-up of elderly individuals with mild memory loss. In this paper, we report the clinical characteristics of such a group, with the aim of ABSTRACT: Background: To determine whether clinical data obtained by history and physical examination can predict eventual progression to dementia in a cohort of elderly people with mild cognitive impairment. Methods: A prospective, longitudinal study of a cohort of elderly subjects with amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Ninety subjects meeting the criteria for amnestic MCI were recruited and followed annually for an average of 3.3 years. Main outcome measure was the development of dementia determined by clinical assessment with confirmatory neuropsychological evaluation. Results: Fifty patients (56%) developed dementia on follow-up. They were older, had lower Mini-mental status exam (MMSE) scores and a shorter duration of symptoms at the time of first assessment. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified age at symptom onset as the only clinical parameter which distinguished the group that deteriorated to dementia from the group that did not. The odds ratio for age was 1.1 (confidence interval 1.04 -1.18). Conclusions: Patients presenting with amnestic MCI insufficient for the diagnosis of dementia are at high risk of developing dementia on follow-up. In our cohort, 56% were diagnosed with dementia over an average period of 5.9 years from symptom onset. The only clinical predictor for the eventual development of dementia was older age at symptom onset. Clinical features alone were insufficient to predict development of dementia.RÉSUMÉ: Les données cliniques peuvent-elles prédire la progression vers la démence dans l'atteinte cognitive légère avec syndrome amnésique? Contexte : Le but de cette étude était de déterminer si les données cliniques provenant de l'histoire médicale et de l'examen physique peuvent prédire la progression éventuelle vers la démence dans une cohorte de gens âgés ayant une atteinte cognitive légère. Méthodes : Il s'agit d'une étude longitudinale prospective d'une cohorte de sujets âgés ayant une atteinte cognitive légère (ACL). Quatre-vingt-dix sujets rencontrant les critères diagnostiques de l'ACL amnésique ont été recrutés et suivis annuellement pendant 3,3 ans en moyenne. Le critère d'évaluation principal était l'apparition d'une démence selon l'évaluation clinique confirmée par une évaluation neuropsychologique. Résultats : Cinquante patients (56%) ont développé une démence au cours du suivi. Ils étaient plus âgés, avaient des scores MMSE plus bas et u...