Long-term changes in rainfall and tropical cyclone activity over South and Southeast Asia

Takahashi, Hiroshi G.

doi:10.5194/adgeo-30-17-2011

Cited by 26 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Of specific interest to historical climate change in Vietnam and surrounding regions are studies of Manton et al (2001), Takahashi (2011), Kajikawa et al (2012). Endo et al (2009) found that heavy precipitation increases in southern Vietnam but decreases in northern Vietnam during the 1950s to early 2000s.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate projections for Vietnam based on regional climate models

Ngo‐Duc¹,

Kieu²,

Thatcher³

et al. 2014

Clim. Res.

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This study uses an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate and project the climate of Vietnam. Outputs of 3 global climate models are dynamically downscaled using 3 RCMs. Experiments are performed for a baseline period from 1980 to 1999 and for a future projection from 2000 to 2050 with the A1B emission scenario. Verifications against observations at 61 selected meteorological stations in the region show that an ensemble mean of the 3 RCMs outperforms the individual RCM in representing the climatological mean state, and reasonably captures some extreme climate indices such as the annual maximum daily temperature (TXx), the annual minimum daily temperature (TNn), and the annual maximum 1 d precipitation (RX1day). Future ensemble projections of the temperature, precipitation, and 3 different extreme indices are then evaluated. The simulations predict the 2 m air temperature over Vietnam to significantly increase in both the near future 2011−2030 and middle-future 2031−2050 periods compared to the baseline period. The temperature trend tends to be positive and significant over the whole Vietnam for the spring, summer and fall periods, whereas it is insignificant in the north central region during winter. The highest increase of ~0.5°C decade −1 appears to be pronounced in summer. For precipitation, future changes vary depending on regions and seasons, with the most significant increasing trend over the coastal plain of Central Vietnam, particularly during the winter monsoon season. Under the global warming scenario A1B, TXx and TNn show a significant increase, with the highest rate in the northern and central highlands regions of Vietnam. The extreme precipitation RX1day indices show increasing trends for the coastal zone in the south central region of Vietnam, suggesting more severe water-related disasters in this region in the future. KEY WORDS: Dynamical downscaling · Multi-model approach · Climate extreme indices · VietnamResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate projections for Vietnam based on regional climate models

Ngo‐Duc¹,

Kieu²,

Thatcher³

et al. 2014

Clim. Res.

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“…Chan and Xu () highlight similar decadal and multi‐decadal trends in the number of landfalling tropical cyclones (ATCs) over Southeast. ATCs have been reported to influence rainfall in South East Asia (Takahashi, ). Hence, the intensification of ATCs activity (Takahashi, ) might relate to the observed intensification in rainfall in late Fall and Winter in Central Vietnam.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…ATCs have been reported to influence rainfall in South East Asia (Takahashi, ). Hence, the intensification of ATCs activity (Takahashi, ) might relate to the observed intensification in rainfall in late Fall and Winter in Central Vietnam.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the high resolution gridded rainfall dataset suggests high confidence in an increasing gradient of rainfall trends towards the coastline, a phenomenon generally missed by most larger scale regional studies (e.g. Manton et al ., ; Ho et al ., ; Takahashi, ). In this respect, the utility of the high resolution APHRODITE dataset is clear.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam

Souvignet

Laux

Freer

et al. 2013

Hydrological Processes

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In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non‐parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…A geostatistical simulation algorithm was also used to produce 100 equiprobable maps of the SPI for each year and this gridded data set was used to produce yearly scenarios of the SPI from 1940 to 1999 and uncertainty evaluations of the scenarios produced. Takahashi (2011) investigated the longterm changes in rainfall and associated tropical cyclone activity in transition seasons (between wet and dry seasons) in South and Southeast Asia, using gridded rainfall, tropical cyCorrespondence to: S. Michaelides (silas@ucy.ac.cy) clone tracks and reanalysis datasets. The long-term changes in coastal regions were discussed along with the fact that long-term changes in rainfall during the transition seasons in South and Southeast Asia are closely associated with those in tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean and South China Sea.…”

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confidence: 99%

Preface ''Precipitation: Measurement, Climatology, Remote Sensing, and Modeling (EGU 2010)''

Michaelides¹,

Athanasatos²

2011

Adv. Geosci.

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In the first paper, Thurai et al. (2011) discuss the way in which precipitation measurements from a 2-D video disdrometer were used for drop size distribution (DSD) comparisons with co-located Parsivel measurements. The comparisons were made in terms of the mass-weighted mean diameter, the standard deviation of the mass-spectrum and the rainfall rate, all based on 1-min DSD from the two instruments. Time series comparisons show close agreement in all three parameters for cases where the rainfall rate was less than 20 mm h −1 .The second and third papers comprise climatological studies on precipitation. A climatic study was performed by Costa (2011) in which the yearly changes in precipitation from 1940 to 1999, on local and regional scales, over the southern region of continental Portugal were analyzed. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) time series with a 12-month time scale was calculated for 43 meteorological stations; a geostatistical approach was used to evaluate the temporal dynamics of the spatial patterns of precipitation. A geostatistical simulation algorithm was also used to produce 100 equiprobable maps of the SPI for each year and this gridded data set was used to produce yearly scenarios of the SPI from 1940 to 1999 and uncertainty evaluations of the scenarios produced. Takahashi (2011) investigated the longterm changes in rainfall and associated tropical cyclone activity in transition seasons (between wet and dry seasons) in South and Southeast Asia, using gridded rainfall, tropical cyCorrespondence to: S. Michaelides (silas@ucy.ac.cy) clone tracks and reanalysis datasets. The long-term changes in coastal regions were discussed along with the fact that long-term changes in rainfall during the transition seasons in South and Southeast Asia are closely associated with those in tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean and South China Sea.Three papers cover the remote sensing area. In the first paper by Hadjimitsis et al. (2011), the atmospheric precipitable water over the area of Cyprus was estimated by means of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) thermal channels brightness temperature difference, in a grid of 5 × 5 km cells. The corresponding precipitable water value in each grid cell was extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Level 2 product (nearinfrared algorithm). The paper by Papadavid et al. (2011a) reports on a research project which integrates technological tools for developing a complete system for monitoring and determining irrigation demand in Cyprus, on a systematic basis. The main aim of this research was to estimate crop evapotranspiration in Cyprus for an effective irrigation water management. In the last paper, Papadavid et al. (2011b) discuss the way in which data from meteorological stations can be used for monitoring and determining irrigation demands in the island of Cyprus. It is shown how daily crop evapotranspiration can be estimated using the FAO Penman-Monteith method adapted to satellite data and auxiliary meteorol...

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Long-term changes in rainfall and tropical cyclone activity over South and Southeast Asia

Cited by 26 publications

References 12 publications

Climate projections for Vietnam based on regional climate models

Climate projections for Vietnam based on regional climate models

Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam

Preface ''Precipitation: Measurement, Climatology, Remote Sensing, and Modeling (EGU 2010)''

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