Long-term Electricity Demand Forecasting of Sumatera System Based on Electricity Consumption Intensity and Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035

Abstract

An important step in energy management especially in electricity planning is demand forecasting. A simple model is presented using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System) as a tool and Sumatera systems as a case study. It aims to be easy to understand and applicable. Electricity demand in household sector is calculated based on data of population, household size, electrification ratio and electricity intensity. On the other hand, electricity demand in non-household sector is calculated as a product of number of customers and its electricity intensity. The base year is 2010 and 2025 is the end of forecasting period. The result shows that electricity demand in Sumatera system would be increase more than seven times compared to base year value. A comparative study was also carried out.

Application of LEAP model on long-term electricity demand forecasting in Indonesia, period 2010-2025

“…[10]. LEAP has been used by more than 190 countries in the world [2]. The Leap model can be used to calculate energy requirements, transformations and energy sources.…”

“…Final electricity demand analysis is calculated for each year and branch (sector). Electricity demand is calculated as a product of total activity and electrical intensity [2].…”

“…Electricity is one form of secondary energy. Based on the type of fuel, electricity is the most widely used energy after petroleum [2]. In addition, electricity is easily to trasmitted through transmission and distribution line, easy to use and a lot of devices on the world need electricity as power source.…”

“…Base on the reveal above, electricity demand forecasting in future is important in order to avoid unbalance demand and supply or deficit energy. Several methods have been developed such as the markov model, fuzi linear regression and a combination of existing methods [2]. Factors or variables that affect electricity demand include population, gross domestic product (GDP), electrification ratio and other intensity.…”

The Effect of External Factors on Consumption Electricity Loads Forecasting using Fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno Kang

“…According to Ling et al [3] the electric load forecasting needs to consider the environmental temperature, especially for areas which have a high temperature such as Indonesia. The population is crucial thing in electrical load forecasting electricity [4]. Indonesia is one of the countries with the second densest population in ASEAN where the increasing of population will give a result to the increasing of human electrical needs.…”