Long-term electricity supply modelling in the context of developing countries: The OSeMOSYS-LEAP soft-linking approach for Ethiopia

Gebremeskel, Dawit; Ahlgren, Erik O.; Beyene, Getachew Bekele

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2022.101045

Cited by 22 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…OSeMOSYS has been employed in a range of studies conducted at various levels. Examples include examining the ability of grid-extension and off-grid supply to improve the electricity access in Ethiopia [15]. On a larger scale, the Electricity Model Base for Africa (TEMBA) initiative investigated the electricity supply systems of 47 countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition and Improved Energy Security in Botswana’s Energy Sector using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Saad,

Plazas-Niño,

Cannone

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Botswana heavily relies on coal for electricity, resulting in significant carbon emissions. With 40% of electricity sourced from imported fossil fuels, the nation faces vulnerability to volatile prices and supply instability. To address this, leveraging abundant solar resources could decarbonise and enhance energy security. However, an unexplored cost-effective strategy hinders progress. This study utilises the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to analyse costs, energy generation, and fuel requirements for Botswana's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and energy security goals up to 2050. Six scenarios—Least Cost (LC), Business-As-Usual (BAU), Net Zero by 2050 (NZ), Coal Phase Out by 2045 (CPO), Fossil Fuel Phase Out by 2045 (FFPO), and Import Phase Out by 2045 (IMPPO)—are compared. Solar technologies, especially in the NZ and IMPPO scenarios, demonstrate significance. Achieving Fossil Fuel Phase Out by 2045 (FFPO) is cost-effective, saving $31 million and incurring $2 billion less in investment compared to BAU. Yet, for Botswana to decarbonise and improve energy security without import reliance, NZ and IMPPO pathways are preferable, though they require higher capital investment, necessitating private sector financing. Recommended policies include detailed solar PV and storage strategies, updated renewable energy (RE) targets, coal and natural gas phase-outs, and an enhanced regulatory role for the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA).

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition and Improved Energy Security in Botswana’s Energy Sector using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Saad,

Plazas-Niño,

Cannone

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…Unlike other price-based DRPs, primarily based on pre-defined prices at fixed periods or where rates are based on the time of use, such as CPP or EDRP DRP, the proposed PCDP DRP offers an instantaneous time-variant electricity price based on the actual load demand-generation power imbalance in the system. This scheme provides variable pricing as in other real-time pricing proposed in [31]; however, the differences are based on the mismatch between the power balance status, the available shiftable load demand capacity, and the BESS's power charging or discharging capability. The electricity price change (δP pcdp,drp r…”

Section: Power Capacity-based Dynamic Pricing Demand Response For Gri...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The energy management strategies are developed to minimize operating and environmental costs while meeting the electricity demand and adequately considering future generation and demand response. Research studies have revealed that incorporating short-term operation limits in the long-term investment planning model significantly mitigates the shortcomings of the above-segregated models using soft-linking techniques [30,31].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Capacity and Operational Planning for Renewable Energy-Based Microgrid Considering Different Demand-Side Management Strategies

et al. 2023

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A bi-objective joint optimization planning approach that combines component sizing and short-term operational planning into a single model with demand response strategies to realize a techno-economically feasible renewable energy-based microgrid is discussed in this paper. The system model includes a photovoltaic system, wind turbine, and battery. An enhanced demand response program with dynamic pricing devised based on instantaneous imbalances between surplus, deficit, and the battery’s power capacity is developed. A quantitative metric for assessing energy storage performance is also proposed and utilized. Emergency, critical peak pricing, and power capacity-based dynamic pricing (PCDP) demand response programs (DRPs) are comparatively analyzed to determine the most cost-effective planning approach. Four simulation scenarios to determine the most techno-economic planning approach are formulated and solved using a mixed-integer linear programming algorithm optimization solver with the epsilon constraint method in Matlab. The objective function is to minimize the total annualized costs (TACs) while satisfying the reliability criterion regarding the loss of power supply probability and energy storage dependency. The results show that including the DRP resulted in a significant reduction in TACs and system component capacities. The cost-benefit of incorporating PCDP DRP strategies in the planning model increases the overall system flexibility.

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“…For instance, OSeMOSYS has been employed to model energy policy and develop least-cost scenarios in Indonesia, including the nationwide [14], Sumatra Island [15], Sulawesi region [16], and Java-Bali power systems [17]. The model has also been utilised for analysing energy transition pathways in other developing countries, such as, in Dominican Republic [18], Bangladesh [19], Ethiopia [20] and Egypt [21]. Additionally, OSeMOSYS is adept at simulating broader specific objectives, such as projecting the consequences of phasing out coal from the energy mix in Mauritius [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia’s Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)

Paiboonsin,

Oluleye,

Howells

et al. 2023

Energies

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Responding to the Paris Agreement and climate change mitigation, Indonesia aims to reach net zero by 2060 or sooner. Due to Indonesia’s dependence on coal and growing consumption, alternative sources of clean energy are imperative for meeting its rising energy needs and reducing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the energy transition. This project aims to examine Indonesia’s opportunities and potential to achieve low carbon ambition in the energy sector and identify alternative pathways for the energy transition in Indonesia. In this study, the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS), which is a long-term energy system modelling tool, is employed to compare electricity generation, investment, and carbon dioxide emissions between business-as-usual and five alternative scenarios. Six scenarios, including business as usual, least-cost, two coal-phrase out and two net zero aligned with national climate targets and optimal scenarios, were simulated across different target years. The results show that the net zero (NZ) scenario is more cost-effective and emits fewer greenhouse gases than the other scenarios in meeting Indonesia’s future energy demand. However, achieving net zero by 2050 (NZ50) results in significantly lower CO2 emissions (10,134 MtCO2), which is less than half of the emissions in the net zero by 2060 (NZ60) scenario (16,849 MtCO2) at a similar cost (6229 and 6177 billion USD, respectively). This paper’s insights emphasise that large-scale renewable energy deployment and coal retirement are critical pathways to reaching carbon neutrality and achieving the energy mix transition.

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Long-term electricity supply modelling in the context of developing countries: The OSeMOSYS-LEAP soft-linking approach for Ethiopia

Cited by 22 publications

References 49 publications

Long-term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition and Improved Energy Security in Botswana’s Energy Sector using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Long-term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition and Improved Energy Security in Botswana’s Energy Sector using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Optimal Capacity and Operational Planning for Renewable Energy-Based Microgrid Considering Different Demand-Side Management Strategies

Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia’s Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)

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