Long-Term Forecast of Energy and Fuels Demand Towards a Sustainable Road Transport Sector in Ecuador (2016–2035): A LEAP Model Application

Abstract

The total energy demand in the transport sector represented 48.80% of the total consumption in Ecuador throughout 2016, where 89.87% corresponded to the road transport sector. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the future behavior of this sector and assess the economic and environmental measures towards sustainable development. Consequently, this study analyzed: (1) the total energy demand for each vehicle class and fuel type; (2) the GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and air pollutants NO x and PM 10 ; and (3) the cost attributed to the fuel demand, between 2016 and 2035. For this, four alternative demand scenarios were designed: BAU: Business As Usual; EOM: Energy Optimization and Mitigation; AF: Alternative Fuels; and SM: Sustainable Mobility using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system. After analysis, the EOM, AF, and SM scenarios have advantages relative to BAU, where SM particularly stands out. The results show that SM compared to BAU, contributes with a 12.14% (141,226 kBOE) decrease of the total energy demand, and the economic savings for this fuel demand is of 14.22% (26,720 MUSD). Moreover, global NO x and PM 10 emissions decreased by 14.91% and 13.78%, respectively. Additionally, accumulated GHG emissions decreased by 13.49% due to the improvement of the fuel quality for the vehicles that mainly consume liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, and electricity.Sustainability 2020, 12, 472 2 of 26 consumption levels related to liquid fuels, they have a faster growth forecast of approximately three times between 2015 and 2040. For example, the consumption of natural gas for passenger and cargo transport would increase by almost 500% in the same period [5].Between 2000 and 2012, in several Latin American countries, the energy demand in the road transport sector has been continuously increasing with high intensity every year; in Paraguay, it grew by 11%, in Panama and Bolivia by 5%, in Argentina and Costa Rica by 4% [6]. This trend has remained relatively constant, generating a significant increase in the vehicle fleet, with a 3.5% average each year, which is mainly composed of cars [7].In 2012, in the countries of this same region, the transport sector had a total energy consumption share of 27% in the case of Nicaragua to 55% in the case of Ecuador. Inside this sector, road transport demanded around 85% of the total energy consumption, excluding Panama, where air transport continues to be very significant with 30% of the total energy consumption in the transport sector due to its geographical condition [8].The high levels of liquid petroleum fuels consumption in road transport cause great concern at the global level but mainly in emerging market countries such as India, China, the United States of America, and large regions such as the European Union, Latin America, Southeast Asian, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, which are the world's most energy demanded.This concern is primarily related to the following reasons: (1) the localized polluting gases emissions within cities that reduce the ...

Electric Power Based on the Solid Urban Waste: Applied to the District of Bellaterra in Barcelona, Spain

“…This type of assessment that is used by Leopold's matrices is a type of instrument that will allow foreseeing negative aspects of the activities carried out in any project such as the construction phase, operation phase, and completion phase, stating the most important in the study area. [14], [15]. As a point of comparison, the impacts generated by each action carried out in the project are verified, whether it generates impacts on the socio-economic, physical or biological environment and what type of environmental impact they are immersed.…”

Campus Shuttle Bus Route Optimization Using Machine Learning Predictive Analysis: A Case Study

“…Alternatively, Hu et al [23] proposed a cost-effective energy consumption management strategy to monitor and manage the fuel cell/battery ingesting in a vehicle. Recently, Rivera-Gonzalez et al [24] studied the energy and fuel demands in Ecuador's sustainable road transport for 2016-2035. The result shows that the energy demand for the chosen scenario decreased by 12.14%.…”

Biochemical changes of kemiri sunan [Reutealis trisperma (Blanco) Airy Shaw] kernels at eight levels of fruit storage duration

“…In the transport industry, the world's ultimate consumption of liquid fuels is expected to account for around 55% by 2040. The top consumer share from 2015 thus remains unchanged [1]. Final energy demand in Indonesia also dominated the industrial and transportation sector in 2018.…”