Long-term predictive models of risk factors for early chronic kidney disease: a longitudinal study

Abstract

BackgroundThe high incidence and prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Taiwan have produced tremendous burdens on health care resources. The work environment of air force special operations personnel engenders high psychological stress, and the resulting increased blood pressure can lead to glomerular hypertension and accelerated glomerular injury in the long term. The aim of the study was to establish the predictive models to define the predictors of CKD.ResultsThe results indicated that the prevalence of CKD over 4 consecutive years was 3.8%, 9.4%, 9.0%, and 9.4%. The capability of using occult blood in urine to predict the risk of CKD after 1, 2, and 3 years was statistically significant. The age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were 7.94 (95% CI: 2.61–24.14), 12.35 (95% CI: 4.02–37.94) and 4.25 (95% CI: 1.32–13.70), respectively.DiscussionThe predictive power of occult blood in urine for the risk of CKD in each model was statistically significant. Future investigations can explore the feasibility of implementing simple and accurate urine dipsticks for preliminary testing besides annual aircrew physical examinations to facilitate early detection and treatment.MethodsThis study was a longitudinal study, in which air force special operations personnel who received physical examinations at military hospitals between 2004 and 2010 were selected. CKD was determined based on the definition provided by the US National Kidney Foundation. Overall, 212 participants that could be followed continuously for 4 years were analyzed.

Serum Triglycerides Are Related to Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Stage 2 in Young and Middle-Aged Chinese Individuals During Routine Health Examination

“…In a Taiwanese population, Chang et al [15] showed that the risk factors for CKD stage 2 were proteinuria, age, anemia, and poor blood pressure control for men, and poor glycemic control, poor blood pressure control, and family income for women. Another Taiwanese study showed that the presence of occult urine blood could predict the risk of CKD [18].…”

Risk Prediction for Early Chronic Kidney Disease: Results from an Adult Health Examination Program of 19,270 Individuals

“…Moreover, CKD risk factors, such as high blood pressure, low socioeconomic status, and herbal medication, are common in Taiwan. Predictive factors for CKD have been examined extensively in recent years, but remain controversial [ 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 ]. Based on a report from the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) and the American College of Physicians (ACP), CKD screening in asymptomatic individuals is insufficient, and there are no valid tools for CKD screening [ 9 ].The American Society of Nephrology strongly recommends regular screening for CKD, regardless of risk factors [ 10 ].…”