Long term trends in the sea surface temperature of the Black Sea

Shapiro, Georgy; Aleynik, Dmitry; Mee, Laurence

doi:10.5194/os-6-491-2010

Cited by 45 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…SST warming rates are not only consistent but have accelerated throughout the study period, in a context of accelerated global warming observed during this century. It is also noticeable the difference from the closer Black Sea, where Miladinova et al (2017) did not find any SST significant trend for the 1960-2015 period while Shapiro et al (2010) found a warming in the 1985-2000 period embedded in an overall downward trend for the twentieth century. Shaltout and Omstedt (2014) found a 0.51°C/decade increase for the Black Sea from 1982 to 2012 that is higher than the global 0.36°C/decade we have found in the Mediterranean for 1982-2016 but lower than the decadal trends from 1993 to 2016.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Sea Surface Temperature in the Mediterranean: Trends and Spatial Patterns (1982–2016)

Pastor

Valiente

Palau

2017

Pure Appl. Geophys.

148

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Abstract-Oceans play a key role in energy storage in the global Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere system. Within this framework, the knowledge of past evolution and future trends of sea surface temperature is crucial for the future climate scenarios. Previous studies have highlighted the role of sea surface temperature as an important ingredient for the development and/or intensification of heavy precipitation events in the Western Mediterranean basin but have also highlighted its role in heat waves in Europe. In this study, a consistent warming trend has been found for daily sea surface temperature data series derived from satellites for the whole Mediterranean region and for different temporal scales, from daily to monthly, seasonal and decadal estimates. Additionally, spatial clustering analysis has been run to look for its spatial structure. Two main distribution modes have been found for sea surface temperature in winter and summer, while spring and fall show transitional regimes. Winter mode shows a north-to-south increasing gradient banded structure while summer regime presents a set of well-differentiated areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Sea Surface Temperature in the Mediterranean: Trends and Spatial Patterns (1982–2016)

Pastor

Valiente

Palau

2017

Pure Appl. Geophys.

148

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“…Clearly, a simple increase in the wind speed or a gradual turn in the predominant wind direction over the entire basin is not sufficient to produce such an extensive and strong pattern of variations in wave conditions. The reaction of the sea surface to changing wind conditions is generally a nonlinear process and the response in terms of the wave field not necessarily exactly follows the changes in the wind field similarly to the quite weak correlation between the temperatures of the air and surface water in the Black Sea (Shapiro et al, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term spatial variations in the Baltic Sea wave fields

Soomere

Räämet

2011

Ocean Sci.

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Abstract. This study focuses on spatial patterns in linear trends of numerically reconstructed basic wave properties (average and extreme wave heights, wave periods) in the Baltic Sea under the assumption of no ice cover. Numerical simulations of wave conditions for 1970-2007, using the WAM wave model and adjusted geostrophic winds, revealed extensive spatial variations in long-term changes in both average and extreme wave heights in the Baltic Sea but almost no changes in the basinwide wave activity and wave periods. There has been a statistically significant decrease in the annual mean significant wave height by more than 10% between the islands ofÖland and Gotland and in the southward sea area, and a substantial increase to the south-west of Bornholm, near the coast of Latvia, between theÅland Archipelago and the Swedish mainland, and between the Bothnian Sea and the Bothnian Bay. Variations in extreme wave heights (defined as the threshold for 1% of the highest waves each year) show similar patterns of changes. In several areas the trends in average and extreme wave heights are different. Such a complicated pattern of changes indicates that (i) different regions of the Baltic Sea basin have experienced widespread but essentially different changes in wind properties and (ii) many seemingly controversial trends and variations established in wave properties at different sites in the recent past may reflect the natural spatial variability in the Baltic Sea wave fields.

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“…Individual data sets are hereafter called "WOD", "ROM" and "MHI", respectively. In order to eliminate erroneous data points, the WOD + ROM data set was subject to a quality control using a two-step procedure as in Stephens et al (2002) and Shapiro et al (2010a), which is briefly outlined below. The data were subdivided geographically into 0.25 • squares.…”

Section: Geographical Compartments and Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For consistency with the previous study (Shapiro et al, 2010a) we calculate the monthly climate averages for the period 1910-2000 using the WOD + ROM data set. Climatic averages are calculated using the adaptive grid method as in Lozier et al (1995) and Shapiro et al (2010a) where further details can be found. The idea of this method is to use smaller grid sizes where the data is abundant and larger grids in the areas of sparse data.…”

Section: Climatology and Inter-annual Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf

2011

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Abstract. Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW) on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra-seasonal and inter-annual temperature variations. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water mass between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σ θ = 14.2 isopycnal) which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygenrich surface waters during the warm season due to formation of a seasonal pycnocline. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from in-situ observations taken over the 2nd half of the 20th century. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the shelf area during the summer stratification period (May-November).The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by a cold phase between 1985 and 1995 and a further warming after 1995. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter convection is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the BSW significantly reduces during the warm season. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. It is shown that temperature in the BSW is stronger correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters (CIW) in the deep sea than with the severity of the previous winters, thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for interannual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the western Black Sea shelf than effects of winter convection on the shelf itself.

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Long term trends in the sea surface temperature of the Black Sea

Cited by 45 publications

References 31 publications

Sea Surface Temperature in the Mediterranean: Trends and Spatial Patterns (1982–2016)

Sea Surface Temperature in the Mediterranean: Trends and Spatial Patterns (1982–2016)

Long-term spatial variations in the Baltic Sea wave fields

Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf

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