Low-Frequency Variability and Possible Changes in the North Pacific Simulated by CMIP5 Models

Wang, Jiangman; Li, Chun

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2017-011

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…However, it remains inconclusive how the hydroclimate of southwestern North America will be influenced by potential changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in response to climate change (Cai et al, 2015; Wang & Li, 2017). In previous work, we did not identify surface wind speed or vegetation as dominant controlling factors of regional-scale dust activity, perhaps because of the time scales considered or the inability of reanalysis data to resolve local complex terrain and wind dynamics (Achakulwisut et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Achakulwisut

Anenberg

Neumann³

et al. 2019

GeoHealth

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The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM 2.5 ) and coarse (PM 2.5‐10 ) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2‐month Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080–2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986–2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust‐attributable all‐cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust‐attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate‐driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34–47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986–2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national‐scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust‐related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature‐related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Achakulwisut

Anenberg

Neumann³

et al. 2019

GeoHealth

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“…First, long-term and spatially extensive measurements of soil-derived PM 2.5 are not available, so here we use PM 2.5 -Iron as a fine dust proxy. Second, it remains unclear how the ENSO and PDO-known to affect hydroclimate in southwestern North Americawill respond under future climate change [48,79,80]. Third, we have not considered the climate feedback effect of dust aerosols, which could potentially lead to increased precipitation from the summertime southwestern North American monsoon [81].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the US Southwest: Implications for air quality and public health under future climate change

Achakulwisut

Mickley

Anenberg

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Some recent studies (Newman et al, 2012;Polade et al, 2013;Yim et al, 2015;Wang and Li, 2017) have indicated that the CMIP5 models are generally capable of simulating the spatial pattern of the PDO. Because the PDO has significant impacts on the atmosphere, ocean and marine ecosystems (Shan et al, 2014), we provide the systematic assessment of PDO simulations from CMIP5 in this study.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in climate model simulations and observations

Wei

Huang

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The ability of climate models to simulate the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and its global teleconnections is examined using the outputs of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models from historical experiments. It is shown that the global warming trend is reproduced by the models, but there is a considerable difference between the models in the PDO region. The standard deviation of detrended sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the models is similar to that of the observations, especially in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the North Pacific, which are the regions closely associated with the PDO and El Nino‐Southern Oscillation. The globally averaged SSTA during 1900–1940 in the CMIP5 models and observations showed large divergence, which is mainly due to the SSTA in the PDO region. The most significant cycle of the PDO indexes in most of the models had a 60–80 years period, which is different from the observed PDO period (40–60 years). However, the models perform better for the spatial pattern of the PDO, and 90% of the spatial correlations between the models and observations of the spatial pattern of the PDO are above 0.8. In addition, the models can simulate the basic correlation between the PDO and Pacific SSTA variability, but most of them overestimate the relationship in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The CMIP5 models are better at simulating the impact of the PDO on winter precipitation in southern North America but are less accurate in simulating summer precipitation in eastern China. This is probably because most of the models are not accurate in simulating the impacts of the PDO on the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon.

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Low-Frequency Variability and Possible Changes in the North Pacific Simulated by CMIP5 Models

Cited by 12 publications

References 28 publications

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the US Southwest: Implications for air quality and public health under future climate change

Comparison of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in climate model simulations and observations

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