Managing the impact of climate on migration: evidence from Mexico

Abstract

This paper uses state-level data on migration flows between Mexico and the U.S. from 1999 to 2011 to investigate the migration response to climate shocks and the mitigating impact of an agricultural cash-transfer program (PROCAMPO) and a disaster fund (Fonden). While lower than average precipitations increase undocumented migration, especially from the most agricultural states, Fonden amounts decrease the undocumented migration response to abnormally low precipitations during the dry season. Changes equalizing the distribution of PROCAMPO and favoring vulnerable producers in the non irrigated ejido sector mitigate the impact of droughts on migration, especially for a high initial level of inequality.

Cap. 26: Grandes Llanuras del Sur. En: La Quinta Evaluación del Clima

“…Las fuertes lluvias y las consiguientes inundaciones han anegado yacimientos arqueológicos 32 . Los daños a gran escala o repetitivos provocados por el aumento del nivel del mar, los ciclones tropicales, la sequía y las inundaciones han incrementado el desplazamiento de personas y la migración en la frontera entre Texas y México y de las comunidades costeras (KM 9.3) 33,34,35,36 .…”

Public works programmes and agricultural risk: Evidence from India

“…Third, I contribute to the literature that explores whether social protection programmes help individuals cope with weather shocks. In Mexico, Adhvaryu et al (2018) find that a conditional cash transfer programme protects children from early‐life rainfall shocks, while Chort and De La Rupelle (2022) find that two social protection programmes—an agricultural cash transfer programme and a disaster fund—mitigate the effect of climate shocks on Mexico–US migration. Shrinivas et al (2021) find that India's in‐kind food transfer programme reduces labour supply and increases wages, with these effects concentrated in years with adverse weather shocks.…”