Mapping the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Fall Armyworm in China by Coupling Multi-Factors

Huang, Yanru; Lv, Hua; Dong, Yingying; Huang, Wenjiang; Hu, Gao; Liu, Yang; Chen, Hui; Geng, Yun; Bai, Jie; Guo, Pan; Cui, Yifeng

doi:10.3390/rs14174415

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Spatial and temporal interactions between FAW dispersal from its year-round range, its population growth and seasonal development of corn crops were analysed in the USA by Westbrook et al (2016) and Westbrook et al (2019), and in China by Huang et al (2022). In NZ, a FAW phenology model has been constructed and is currently being validated with field observations (pers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of models for estimating the year-round range of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and predictions for New Zealand under current and future climates

Phillips,

Han,

Davies

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), fall armyworm (FAW), is a pest of corn, maize and other crops that has rapidly spread from its native range in the Americas to much of Africa, India, Asia and Australia, and was first detected in New Zealand (NZ) in March 2022. To estimate where FAW will occur year-round in NZ, we evaluated a range of published models of FAW’s potential distribution in tandem with various publicly available gridded climate datasets. Model predictions were compared to geocoded observations of where FAW has survived or died during winter in southeastern China and southeastern USA. All of the combinations of model and climate dataset tested performed relatively well, with an isotherm model performing best. This and a consensus of three Climex models were used to produce predictions for New Zealand in current and future climates. They predicted that in current climates FAW will occur year-round in the northern third of the North Island and in warmer years may also persist year-round in some coastal parts of the southern North Island and northern South Island. As NZ’s climate warms, FAW will occupy marginal areas year-round with increasing frequency and by about 2080 will occupy them year-round practically every year. Concurrently the areas where it occasionally survives winter during warm years will extend further south and further inland. Our study demonstrated the benefits for illustrating uncertainty in model results of evaluating a wider range of models and climate datasets than is normal practice in species distribution modelling. Moreover, using annual climate datasets in addition to 20 year means provided valuable information about annual fluctuations in FAW’s potential year-round distribution that is often lacking in species distribution estimates. The work demonstrated the high value of recording species absences (or failures to survive at specified locations) for measuring model performance. Documentation of such observations is generally rare and greater awareness of their value might encourage more recording.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of models for estimating the year-round range of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and predictions for New Zealand under current and future climates

Phillips,

Han,

Davies

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…In addition, insect migration is closely related to seasonal changes in environmental suitability and resource availability ( Guo et al., 2020 ). Therefore, the use of remote sensing data and meteorological assimilation products to finely characterise the environmental conditions of insect habitats can help improve the accuracy of insect migration simulations ( Huang et al., 2022 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Migration risk of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) from North Africa to Southern Europe

Wang

Huang

et al. 2023

Front. Plant Sci.

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With the development of globalization and agriculture trade, as well as its own strong migratory capacity, fall armyworm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda) (J.E. Smith) has invaded more than 70 countries, posing a serious threat to the production of major crops in these areas. FAW has now also been detected in Egypt in North Africa, putting Europe, which is separated from it only by the Mediterranean Sea, at high risk of invasion. Therefore, this study integrated multiple factors of insect source, host plant, and environment to provide a risk analysis of the potential trajectories and time periods of migration of FAW into Europe in 2016~2022. First, the CLIMEX model was used to predict the annual and seasonal suitable distribution of FAW. The HYSPLIT numerical trajectory model was then used to simulate the possibility of the FAW invasion of Europe through wind-driven dispersal. The results showed that the risk of FAW invasion between years was highly consistent (P<0.001). Coastal areas were most suitable for the expansion of the FAW, and Spain and Italy had the highest risk of invasion, with 39.08% and 32.20% of effective landing points respectively. Dynamic migration prediction based on spatio-temporal data can enable early warning of FAW, which is important for joint multinational pest management and crop protection.

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“…The ability to discriminate stress factors from each other is also established, such as the differentiation of powdery mildew from aphids in winter wheat [69] or wheat yellow rust from nitrogen deficiency [70]. However, insect pest detection in maize primarily focuses on the fall armyworm [45,[71][72][73][74], and there is limited demonstrated ability to detect other pest species such as the CBW.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suitability of Satellite Imagery for Surveillance of Maize Ear Damage by Cotton Bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) Larvae

Sári-Barnácz,

Zalai,

Toepfer

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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The cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera, Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) poses significant risks to maize. Changes in the maize plant, such as its phenology, influence the short-distance movement and oviposition of cotton bollworm adults and, thus, the distribution of the subsequent larval damage. We aim to provide an overview of future approaches to the surveillance of maize ear damage by cotton bollworm larvae based on remote sensing. We focus on finding a near-optimal combination of Landsat 8 or Sentinel-2 spectral bands, vegetation indices, and maize phenology to achieve the best predictions. The study areas were 21 sweet and grain maze fields in Hungary in 2017, 2020, and 2021. Correlations among the percentage of damage and the time series of satellite images were explored. Based on our results, Sentinel-2 satellite imagery is suggested for damage surveillance, as 82% of all the extremes of the correlation coefficients were stronger, and this satellite provided 20–64% more cloud-free images. We identified that the maturity groups of maize are an essential factor in cotton bollworm surveillance. No correlations were found before canopy closure (BBCH 18). Visible bands were the most suitable for damage surveillance in mid–late grain maize (|rmedian| = 0.49–0.51), while the SWIR bands, NDWI, NDVI, and PSRI were suitable in mid–late grain maize fields (|rmedian| = 0.25–0.49) and sweet maize fields (|rmedian| = 0.24–0.41). Our findings aim to support prediction tools for cotton bollworm damage, providing information for the pest management decisions of advisors and farmers.

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Mapping the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Fall Armyworm in China by Coupling Multi-Factors

Cited by 8 publications

References 77 publications

Comparison of models for estimating the year-round range of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and predictions for New Zealand under current and future climates

Comparison of models for estimating the year-round range of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and predictions for New Zealand under current and future climates

Migration risk of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) from North Africa to Southern Europe

Suitability of Satellite Imagery for Surveillance of Maize Ear Damage by Cotton Bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) Larvae

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