Market potential for electric vehicles in the German commercial passenger transport sector

Gnann, Till; Haag, Michael; Plötz, Patrick; Wietschel, Martin

doi:10.1109/evs.2013.6914938

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…We chose this data set since it contains the trips of people in the household for one week instead of one day which is crucial for the determination of a realistic electric driving share (see [6,10,15]). The same holds for fleet vehicles where our own collection of commercial driving profiles (REM 2030 driving profiles [16]) is, to the best of our knowledge, the only data set of commercial driving profiles of more than one day observation period for Germany [17].…”

Section: User Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options

Gnann

Plötz

Kühn

et al. 2015

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Martin Wietschel Modelling Market Diffusion of Electric Vehicles with Real World Driving Data German Market and Policy OptionsAbstract Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to reduce green house gas emissions from the transport sector. However, the limited electric range of EVs could impede their market introduction. Still some potential users are willing to pay more for EVs. The combined effect of these and other influencing factors as well as the resulting future market evolution are unclear. Here, we study the market evolution of EVs in Germany until 2020. Our results reveal a great deal of uncertainty in the market evolution of EVs due to external conditions and the users' willingness to pay. We find the future share of EVs in German passenger car stock to range from 0.4% to almost 3% by 2020. Energy prices have a large impact on EV market evolution as a 25% increase in fuel prices would double the number of EVs in stock by 2020 compared to a reference scenario. The high uncertainty of the market evolution implies that policies to foster market diffusion of EVs should be dynamically adaptable to react to changing framework conditions. We find a special depreciation allowance for commercial vehicles and a subsidy of 1,000 Euro as the most effective and efficient monetary policy options.

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Section: User Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options

Gnann

Plötz

Kühn

et al. 2015

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Battery electric powertrains are likely in smaller, lighter cars. Battery power limits vehicle range [44,45]. The cost of electric vehicles (EVs) is influenced by factors such as battery technology, power pricing, government incentives, and regulations.…”

Section: Comparison Between Fuel-cell Electric Vehicles (Fcevs) and B...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Future of Electric and Hydrogen Cars and Trucks: An Overview

et al. 2023

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The negative consequences of toxic emissions from internal combustion engines, energy security, climate change, and energy costs have led to a growing demand for clean power sources in the automotive industry. The development of eco-friendly vehicle technologies, such as electric and hydrogen vehicles, has increased. This article investigates whether hydrogen vehicles will replace electric vehicles in the future. The results showed that fuel-cell cars are unlikely to compete with electric cars. This is due to the advancements in electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, which are becoming more cost-effective and efficient. Additionally, the technical progress in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is expected to reduce the market share of fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) in passenger vehicles. However, significant investments have been made in hydrogen cars. Many ongoing investments seem to follow the sunk cost fallacy, where decision-makers continue to invest in an unprofitable project due to their already invested resources. Furthermore, even with megawatt charging, fuel-cell trucks cost more than battery-powered electric trucks. The use cases for fuel-cell electric trucks are also much more limited, as their running expenses are higher compared to electric cars. Hydrogen vehicles may be beneficial for heavy transport in remote areas. However, it remains to be seen if niche markets are large enough to support fuel-cell electric truck commercialization and economies of scale. In summary, we believe that hydrogen vehicles will not replace electric cars and trucks, at least before 2050.

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“…Today, fuel cell electric trucks (FCET) are being delivered on a small scale, and manufacturers have announced commercially available FCET within the next decade. Yet, FCETare less energy efficient than BET, resulting in higher primary energy demand and higher total costs of ownership (Gnann et al 2017;NPM 2020, Plötz 2022. Large-scale demonstrators for zero-emission truck technologies, leading to an initial market diffusion, are planned within the next five years, e.g., in Germany and Sweden, among other countries.…”

Section: Medium and Heavy-duty Vehiclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of shorter vehicle ownership times by first-users compared to passenger cars, i.e., typically around 5 to 7 years (Gnann et al 2017), a large-scale reduction of emissions from medium and heavy-duty transport seems possible but will probably not be on time. As the transition towards low emission trucks requires more time, emission reductions from newly sold diesel trucks are highly important.…”

Section: Medium and Heavy-duty Vehiclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenhouse gas emission budgets and policies for zero-Carbon road transport in Europe

et al. 2023

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Following the Paris Agreement, virtually all countries worldwide have committed themselves to undertaking efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Within the European Union (EU), the recent "Fit for 55" policy package proposes ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies for all sectors as part of the EU's contribution to limiting global warming. Yet, it is unclear whether the proposed policies are sufficient for the EU to limit global warming to 1.5°C and it remains an open policy problem how to translate global temperature targets into sector-specific emission budgets and further into sector-specific policies. Here, we derive GHG budgets for transport in EU27 and obtain GHG mitigation pathways for Europe consistent with 1.5°C global warming. We do not provide a comprehensive assessment of the "Fit for 55" transport package but we discuss the main policies for road transport in light of the GHG emission budgets, their level of ambition, and suggest amendments to these policies as well as improvements to the "Fit for 55" package. Our results suggest that parts of the "Fit for 55" for transport are still not ambitious enough to align with a 1.5°C scenario.

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Market potential for electric vehicles in the German commercial passenger transport sector

Cited by 11 publications

References 2 publications

Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options

Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options

Future of Electric and Hydrogen Cars and Trucks: An Overview

Greenhouse gas emission budgets and policies for zero-Carbon road transport in Europe

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