Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in a partially comorbid community

Ssebuliba, Joseph; Nakakawa, Juliet; Ssematimba, Amos; Mugisha, Johnny

doi:10.1016/j.padiff.2021.100212

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 17 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…When vaccination rate is set to zero and face mask compliance increased from 0.2 to 0.8, Figure (13) shows peak infections of strain two decrease by 18.6%. This is a clear indication that facemasks use alone can help decrease infection rates significantly.…”

Section: Use Of Face Masks Without Vaccinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mathematical modelling of disease transmission is the heart of epidemiology and public health decision-making [10]. Various compartmental models have been formulated to study the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 virus in order to control its spread [11][12][13][14][15]. Vaccination, use of efficient face masks and social distancing are among the most useful non-pharmaceutical and therapeutic measures for controlling spread.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Modelling the transmission dynamics of a multi-strain SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with vaccination for an emerging strain

Kayanja

Abola

Kikawa

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 has severely impacted the health, economic and social status of Ugandans and people globally. Its mutations result into numerous deadly variants which are constantly emerging in short time intervals. The rise of these variants has led to increased virus transmissibility, disease severity and reduction in vaccine effectiveness. To-date, it is unclear which direction the pandemic is likely to take in the next few years.Methods: This study developed a deterministic two strain Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Vaccinated (SEIR-V) mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of these SARS-CoV-2 variants. The model considers 10 compartments to deal with both strain one and strain two (emerging strain). Basic reproductive number R0 is computed and both local and global stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium investigated qualitatively. The model's bifurcation analysis revealed a forward type.Results: Simulation results indicate a 17.17 % increase in peak infections for strain two dominance as compared to strain one dominance. Further, a 10-fold increase in vaccination rate would lead to 16.98 % reduction in strain two peak infections. Furthermore, periodically administering booster doses within 18-24 months is recommended. Compulsory face mask usage and early hospitalization/isolation of symptomatic individuals would lead to 14.2 % and 16.98 % decrease in symptomatic infections respectively.Conclusions: Our results suggest that continuous vaccination (at a higher rate) of populations is still vital in the fight against COVID-19. Besides, results on face mask usage and hospitalization of symptomatic individuals provides valuable information that can be used to support emergency preparedness for future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.

show abstract

Section: Use Of Face Masks Without Vaccinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the transmission dynamics of a multi-strain SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with vaccination for an emerging strain

Kayanja

Abola

Kikawa

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Furthermore, we include the influence of the escape rate of quarantined infected persons from isolation facilities in Nigeria in our model owing to fears or beliefs that the government is utilizing the epidemic to enrich its pockets in Nigeria [27]. None of the most current and most recent publications on COVID-19, such as [11,25,26,[28][29][30], have taken these specific elements into account. Individuals should be aware that the COVID-19 vaccine does not provide 100 percent protection since immunization is one of the most effective advancements in disease prevention.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Variant of SARS‐CoV‐2 Dynamics with Imperfect Vaccine

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The occurrence of a new strain of SARS-CoV-2 cannot be ruled out. Therefore, this study seeks to investigate the possible effects of a hypothetical imperfect anti-COVID-19 vaccine on the control of not only the first variant of SARS-CoV-2 but also the second (new) variant of SARS-CoV-2. We further examine the rates and a , escape of quarantined infectious individuals from isolation centers. The control R c and basic reproduction numbers R 0 are computed which gives assess to obtain asymptotic stability of disease-free equilibrium point globally and the existence of a unique persistent equilibrium solution. Numerical results reveal that people infected with the second strain who are vaccinated with an imperfect vaccine are under control but the prevalence of the second variant enhances the prevalence of the first variant. Thus, discovering a vaccine that is effective (to a good extent) for the prevention of variant 2 (new variant) is necessary for the control of COVID-19. Numerical results also reveal that increase in the rate at which individuals infected with the first variant escape the isolation center gives rise to the population infected with the first variant and lowers the peak of the population infected with the second variant. This is probably because individuals infected with the second variant appear to be more careful with their lives and get vaccinated more than individuals infected with the first variant.

show abstract

“…al. [28] studied the COVID-19 contagion by considering the infected individuals having partially comorbid diseases. In [29,30], the COVID-19 spread is examined where the individuals with comorbid diseases having interventions of natural remedies and vaccination.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…al. [28], individuals infected with COVID-19 with or without comorbid diseases are shifted to the hospital (local government quarantine) without reference to the self-quarantine in their respective homes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stability and Sensitivity Analysis of the COVID-19 Spread with Comorbid Diseases

Nainggolan¹,

Ansori²

2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This research investigates a model for the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia by analyzing comorbid diseases, self-quarantine, government-provided quarantine, and immunization regimens. Some model parameters are derived from academic journals, others are extrapolated from data collected by the Indonesian Ministry of Health in 2020, and others are assumed. Evaluation of the model reveals non-endemic equilibrium points, endemic equilibrium points, and the basic reproduction number (BRN). The contact rate and infected probability factors impact the increase in the number of COVID-19-infected individuals with comorbid disease within a group. According to the sensitivity analysis of the BRN, the key parameters impacting the spread of COVID-19 are the rate of susceptible recruitment, the rate of contact, the COVID-19 infection death rate, and the likelihood of infection. In addition, sensitivity analyses are provided to examine the effect of parameter changes on subpopulations. We discovered that the natural death rate is the most sensitive parameter based on the sensitivity index after reaching equilibrium. Symmetry aspects appear in some of the visualization of the model’s solution and the BRN and parameters’ sensitivity.

show abstract

Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in a partially comorbid community

Cited by 17 publications

References 17 publications

Modelling the transmission dynamics of a multi-strain SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with vaccination for an emerging strain

Modelling the transmission dynamics of a multi-strain SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with vaccination for an emerging strain

New Variant of SARS‐CoV‐2 Dynamics with Imperfect Vaccine

Stability and Sensitivity Analysis of the COVID-19 Spread with Comorbid Diseases

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About