Methodology for flood frequency estimations in small catchments

David, Václav; Davidová, Tereza

doi:10.5194/nhess-14-2655-2014

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The flood wave from upstream will overlap with runoff generation downstream causing high peak flow (Murthy, 2002). David and Davidova (2014) did not find a relationship between catchment shape and flood magnitude.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

How Do Climate and Catchment Attributes Influence Flood Generating Processes? A Large‐Sample Study for 671 Catchments Across the Contiguous USA

Stein

Clark

Knoben

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

How Do Climate and Catchment Attributes Influence Flood Generating Processes? A Large‐Sample Study for 671 Catchments Across the Contiguous USA

Stein

Clark

Knoben

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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“…On the other hand, a storm cell that follows a elongated catchments from the top towards the outlet might result in a high flood peak since the flood wave from upstream and downstream parts will overlap (Murthy, 2002). In an empirical study by David and Davidova (2014) the connections between catchment shape and flood magnitude are not significant.…”

Section: Hydrologic Interpretation Of Predictor-response Relationship...mentioning

confidence: 89%

Regional index flood estimation at multiple durations with generalized additive models

Barna,

Engeland,

Kneib

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged basins is often achieved through regression based methods. In situations where flood retention is important, e.g. floodplain management and reservoir design, flood quantile estimates are often needed at multiple durations. This poses a problem for regression-based models as the form of the functional relationship between catchment descriptors and the response may not be constant across different durations. A particular type of regression model that is well-suited to this situation is a generalized additive model (GAM), which allows for flexible, semi-parametric modeling and visualization of the relationship between predictors and the response. However, in practice, selecting predictors for such a flexible model can be challenging, particularly given the characteristics of available catchment descriptor datasets. We employ a machine learning-based variable pre-selection tool which, when combined with domain knowledge, enhances the practicality of constructing GAMs. In this study, we develop a GAM for index (median) flood estimation with the primary objective of investigating duration-specific differences in how catchment descriptors influence the median flood. As the accuracy of this explainable approach is dependent on the fitted GAM being adequate, the secondary objective of our study is prediction of the median flood at ungauged locations and multiple durations, where predictive performance and reliability at ungauged locations are used as proxies for adequacy of the GAM. Predictive performance of the GAM is compared to two benchmark models: the existing log-linear model for median flood estimation in Norway and a fully data-driven machine learning model (an extreme gradient boosting tree ensemble, XGBoost). We find that the predictive accuracy and reliability of the GAM matched or exceeded that of the benchmark models at both durations studied. Within the predictor set selected for this study, we observe duration-specific differences in the relationship between the median flood and the two catchment descriptors effective lake percentage and catchment shape. Ignoring these differences results in a statistically significant decline in predictive performance. This suggests that models developed and estimated for prediction of the index flood at one duration may have reduced performance when applied directly to situations outside of that specific duration.

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“…The Treska River is a main hydrological object and causes flooding in the Kichevo Basin. parameters (David & Davidova 2014). According to the time series length, the temporal information is enough for correct frequency analysis (Merz & Blöschl 2008).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of maximum annual discharges by frequency analysis with four probability distributions in case of non-homogeneous time series (Kazani karst spring in Republic of Macedonia)

Радевски

Gorin

Dimitrovska

et al. 2016

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: Ocena maksimalnih letnih pretokov s frekvenčno analizo s štirimi verjetnostnimi porazdelitvami v primeru nehomogenih časovnih serij (kraški izvir Kazani v Republiki Makedoniji)Običajno uporabljamo v hidrologiji frekvenčno analizo za oceno verjetnosti in velikosti ekstremnih pretokov, še posebej nizkih tokov ali poplavnih značilnosti na določenih merilnih mestih. V članku je predstavljena frekvenčna analiza, ki je bila izvedena na seriji maksimalnih letnih pretokov izmerjenih na merilni postaji na kraškem izviru Kazani v obdobju 51 let . Glede na rezultate testa kumulativnih odklonov (q = 1,531) in testa SNHT ( = 10,543) je časovna serija nehomogena. Po prilagoditvi letnih maksimalnih pretokov pred letom spremembe (1995) z uporabo programske opreme AnClim je bila izvedena frekvenčna analiza z uporabo štirih verjetnostnih porazdelitev. Dobljeni rezultati kažejo na verjetnost pojava poplav na kraškem izviru za različne povratne dobe. Po izračunu so bile z uporabo grafičnih in statističnih primerjav med empirično in teoretično razporeditvijo podatkov določene porazdelitve z najboljšim ujemanjem. Ker je izvir naravna vrednota in pomemben vir za družbo, je zelo pomembno izbrati ustrezno verjetnostno porazdelitev za maksimalne letne pretoke kraškega izvira Kazani. Zato je bila izvedena primerjava z uporabo grafičnih in statističnih testov (KolmogorovSmirnov, χ 2 in Anderson-Darling). Najboljše ujemanje glede na te tri teste je bilo doseženo pri Gumbelovi porazdelitvi z maksimalnim letnim pretokom 4,54 m 3 /s za povratno dobo 10 let, 6,06 m 3 /s za povratno dobo 100 let in 7,56 m 3 /s za povratno dobo 1000 let. Ključne besede: kraški izvir, maksimalni letni pretok, hidrologija, homogenost, frekvenčna analiza. Frequency analysis is usually used in hydrology for the possibility and scale of discharge extremes, especially low flows or flood features of concrete gauge. The paper presents a frequency analysis carried out on a 51 year period series of maximum annual discharge, on Kazani karst spring gauge station. The time series were non-homogenous according to Cumulative deviations test (q = 1.531) and Standard normal homogeneity test ( = 10.543). After adjusting of annual maximum discharges (AMD) before the year of change (1995), with using AnClim software, the frequency analysis was made using four probability distributions. Obtained results show possibility of karst spring flood occurrence for different return periods. After their calculation the best fitting distribution was chosen using graphical and statistical testing between empirical and theoretical data distribution. According to the spring significance for nature and humanity, it was crucial to choose a right probability distribution for annual maximum discharges of Kazani karst spring. Therefore, a comparison using graphical and statistical testing (Kolmogorov-Smirnov, χ 2 and AndersonDarling test) was made. The best fit according to three tests was the Gumbel distribution with AMD of 4.54 m 3 /s for return period of 10 years, 6.06 m 3 /s for return period of...

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Methodology for flood frequency estimations in small catchments

Cited by 5 publications

References 23 publications

How Do Climate and Catchment Attributes Influence Flood Generating Processes? A Large‐Sample Study for 671 Catchments Across the Contiguous USA

How Do Climate and Catchment Attributes Influence Flood Generating Processes? A Large‐Sample Study for 671 Catchments Across the Contiguous USA

Regional index flood estimation at multiple durations with generalized additive models

Estimation of maximum annual discharges by frequency analysis with four probability distributions in case of non-homogeneous time series (Kazani karst spring in Republic of Macedonia)

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