Methodology for PSA Uncertainty Estimation and Application in Risk-Informed Decision-Making

Abstract

Uncertainties are very important in risk analysis and should be considered in the decision-making process. This paper proposes the methodology for estimation of PSA uncertainties in risk-informed decision-making. The methodology allows solving the complex task of identifying the sources of uncertainties, assessing their range, and providing an approach for consideration of PSA results with uncertainties in combination with other factors underlying risk-informed decision-making. The levels of uncertainties are proposed to be classified using the variation factor. The authors applied the developed methodology to assess alternatives of post-Fukushima safety measures.

An integrated risk index accounting for epistemic uncertainty in probability risk assessment

“…Jin et al 17 identified major contributors to completeness uncertainty and discussed the impact of completeness uncertainty on the reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems. Kukhotskyi et al 18 proposed to add a ''black box'' in the risk assessment model that represent model uncertainty. Bjerga et al 19 discussed the exact meaning of completeness uncertainty and proposed a practical approach for handling it in risk assessment.…”