Migration and demographic disparities in macro-regions of the European Union, a view to 2060

Abstract

BACKGROUNDMigration has become one of the most salient policy areas in the European Union. In response, the European Commission established a research team with the task of investigating a range of possible demographic futures. OBJECTIVEThis paper explores the demographic effects of migration on eastern, southern, and western EU regions, using different scenarios to see the extent population size, workingage population, education composition, and total age dependency can be influenced. METHODSWe use a deterministic cohort-component projection model that (a) incorporates improving levels of educational attainment in the population and (b) explicit consideration of migration between EU member states (MS) and migration between EU MS and the rest of the world. Eight stylised what-if scenarios are developed around a medium assumption projection. RESULTSAlthough migration can have a large effect on total and working-age population size, the EU population will continue to age and see a rise in age dependency regardless. Despite depopulation occurring in many eastern MS, the region is and should remain in a better position than the south and on par with the west in terms of age dependency.

How much would reduced emigration mitigate ageing in Norway?

“…They also showed, however, that even in El Salvador, the no-migration alternative would not prevent ageing, but would merely reduce it (by roughly 15-20%). Furthermore, our conclusion that reduced emigration has a stronger effect on population size than on ageing is in line with results from Potančoková et al (2021). They found that while zero intra-EU migration would reduce the population decreases in Eastern EU from 18% to 10% and in Southern EU from 8% to 6% by 2060, the effects on the total age dependency ratios would be relatively minor.…”

“…For instance, Chamie (2022, page 1) called the ageing of human populations "an inescapable demographic future"; and Coleman (2008, page 468) argued that "population ageing cannot be 'solved' ". Potančoková et al (2021) concluded that declines in the potential labour force and population ageing are clearly unavoidable in all of the EU's macro-regions, and that neither increased fertility nor increased migration are viable strategies for halting population ageing. Thus, these authors advised policymakers to aim to improve economic activity and productivity to accommodate for and adjust to the projected ageing, rather than to attempt to affect the demographic trends directly.…”

“…The scarcity of research on emigration from wealthy countries, including on its effect on ageing, is mirrored in a lack of interest from policymakers in Western countries. It is, however, documented that emigration (or negative net migration) can affect ageing in some typical net emigration countries, such as in Central American countries in close proximity to the United States (García-Guerrero et al, 2019) and in Eastern European countries (Botev, 2012;Fihel et al, 2018;Philipov and Schuster, 2010;Potančoková et al, 2021;Rees et al, 2012). Although emigration usually makes a population older, whether this is actually the case depends on the ages of those who leave and of those who remain (Gavrilov and Heuveline, 2003;Parr, 2021), and on the fertility and mortality of the emigrants and of those who remain (García-Guerrero et al, 2019).…”

“…Over the last decades, several studies have presented comprehensive scenarios for Europe's population development and ageing with different sets of assumptions regarding -among other factors -emigration and immigration, or net migration (Bijak et al, 2008;Marois et al, 2020;Potančoková et al, 2021;Rees et al, 2012). These studies often applied different scenarios for intra-EU (or intra-European) migration and migration between EU/Europe and the rest of the world, and they based their emigration scenarios on observed emigration rates (which may be adjusted up or down in different scenarios).…”

“…When considering the future challenges of ageing societies, the actual "dependency" and "support" of older and younger age groups will be of crucial importance. Other studies (e.g., (Bijak et al, 2008;Marois et al, 2020;Potančoková et al, 2021;Rees et al, 2012) have made projections that also take labour force participation and education into account, and most have concluded that the challenges associated with population ageing are less overwhelming when we consider the likely future development of these factors. For instance, Marois et al (2020) showed that when labour force participation and education are included as additional variables, the projected increase in the dependency ratios is markedly lower.…”