Mineral resources: Geological scarcity, market price trends, and future generations

Henckens, M.L.C.M.; Ierland, E.C. van; Driessen, Peter; Worrell, Ernst

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.04.012

Cited by 167 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Although Henckens et al [66] claimed that there has been no correlation between the market prices of mineral resources and their geological scarcity, we found that the effects of the R/P ratios are significantly and negatively correlated with gold, molybdenum, PGMs and zinc. However, if there is a unit increase in the range of scarcity it will reduce the price level of each metal.…”

Section: Analyzing the Relationship Between The Prices And The Scarcicontrasting

confidence: 93%

The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity

et al. 2018

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No consensus has been reached on the problem of solving resource depletion. A recognition of the fact that resources are not endless and the Earth is a finite globe reinforces the idea that the vision of continuous economic growth is not sustainable over time. The aim of this paper is to examine the efficacy of real prices as an indicator of metals and oil in consideration of growth tendencies in the Consumer Price Indexes. In addition, enhancing the current literature on commodity price interrelationships, the main contribution of this study is the substitution of different proxies in order to justify the effect of scarcity and crude oil changes on the examined metal group prices. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of scarcity as an indicator of real price deviations, the study has been conducted involving various non-renewable metals, i.e., copper, molybdenum, zinc, gold and platinum group metals. The real price indices and metal prices of the US market are constructed between 1913 and 2015. Moreover, additional econometric analyses are also carried out to discover whether prices of various metals associate with oil prices and scarcity, as the proxy of reserves-to-production ratio. The linear regression results seem to suggest that the effects of the R/P ratios are negatively correlated with each of the examined precious (gold, PGMs), mass consumable (copper, zinc) and doping agent (molybdenum) metals from 1991 to 2015. An increase in oil-prices is positively associated with the price levels of each non-renewable resource in the short-run. The findings of multivariate co-integration and Granger causality tests also suggest that pairwise and direct relationships among these variables seem to arise in the long-run. These findings indicate essential questions that must be addressed by future generations in order to appropriately solve scarcity problems.

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Section: Analyzing the Relationship Between The Prices And The Scarcicontrasting

confidence: 93%

The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity

et al. 2018

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“…，并建立了二者关系的 Logistic 函数模型 [15] 。Halada 等对日本铜消费分析显示，在人均 GDP 大于 1.3 万美元之后铜金属消费量趋于稳定 [16] 。 ICSG 分析得出，美国、日本等高 GDP 国家人均铜金属消费量趋于稳定，低 GDP、低收入国家铜金属消费量很低，而印尼、中国等快速发展的发展中国家人均铜金属消费量在持续增加 [17] 。Graedel 等对 49 与人均 GDP 高度相关 [18] 。陈其慎等通过对 16 个国家铜消费数据分析，提出了 "S" 形曲线的三个点：起飞点，人均 GDP 为 3000 美元(1990 年 GK 美元，下同) ；转折点，人均 GDP 为 10 000~12 000 美元；零增长点，人均 GDP 为 17 000~20 000 美元 [19] 。对于铜金属消费强度与人均 GDP 的关系，研究者之间还存在分歧。Canas 等通过对 16 个工业化国家物质消费发现，金属消费强度与人均 GDP 呈倒 "U" 形关系，即存在与环境库茨涅兹曲线 (EKC) 类似的物质库茨涅兹曲线 (MKC) [20] 。Guzmán 等对日本铜消费的研究支持 MKC 规律，并确定由于技术进步使得铜金属消费强度年均下降 2.9% [21] 。Focacci 对 5 个工业化国家和 3 个发展中国家铝、铜等金属消费研究得出，虽然铜金属消费强度随人均 GDP 有降低的趋势，但是不一定呈倒 "U" 形关系 [22,23] [26] 。铜开发协会 (CDA) 估计，美国铜金属消费量最大的行业是建筑业，占 44.0%；其次是交通运输，占 19.0% [27] 。从供给侧来看，铜金属供给包括矿产铜和再生铜。由于铜矿资源分布极不均匀，全球矿产铜产量主要集中在少数几个国家 [28] [29,30] 。Radetzki 研究认为，再生铜产量与铜价格呈正相关关系，与铜金属消费量、铜产品的寿命呈负相关关系 [31] 。随着经济波动对铜金属供需关系的影响，中长期铜金属价格呈现交替上升与下行的周期性变化 (图 4) [32] 。Davutyan 等对过去 100 年的年平均铜价格分析后认为，铜金属价格波动周期具有一定的规律性 [33] Figure 2 The relationship between copper consumption per capita and GDP per capita [11] 528 [38] 。铜金属价格对铜矿企业的财务状况具有重要的影响。Dooley 等、 Kriechbaumer 等认为金属价格是影响采矿企业运营收益的主要因素 [39,40] 减少至 21 世纪初期的 1.3% [43] ；美国铜矿品位从 20 世纪初的 2%以上降至 21 世纪初的 0.5% [44]…”

Section: 引言unclassified

社会经济发展对铜矿资源勘查驱动传导机制分析

杨剑锋¹,

Jianfeng²,

Ma³

et al. 2018

zykx

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Quantitative characterization of the economic process of copper exploration is valuable and practical in predicting copper exploration trends and policy-making in resource governance. Here, we analyzed the driving mechanisms of economic development in copper exploration from four main segments: the effect of economic development on copper consumption; the effect of copper demand and supply on copper prices; the effect of copper price variation on copper extraction; and the effect of copper extraction on copper exploration. Copper consumption was closely related to the level of national industrialization, industrial shifts globally and changes in industrial structure will have profound impacts on copper consumption in China. Fluctuations in medium and long-term copper prices showed cyclic changes, subjected to changes in copper demand and supply. Each surge in copper pricing could be attributed to the initiation and advancement of regional industrialization. The timing of the next surge in copper pricing will depend on countries that initiated their industrialization after China. Mine copper production is lagging copper consumption and prices, and copper prices obviously effect investments, costs, and benefits of mine enterprises. The returns from copper exploration were subjected to copper extraction and development, and influencers included copper prices, profit of copper mining, copper resources and reserves. Copper exploration is a high-risk activity in the mining market. An investment-friendly environment, stability of policy, and transparency are essential for the development of copper exploration in any country.

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“…One such element is Cr. Gradual depletion of raw materials deposits leads to a growing price in the world market for refractory doping materials [1]. Traditional technologies for obtaining Cr-based doping materials using carbon-sili-cothermic and aluminothermic melting are characterized by significant temperatures and processing times.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revealing new patterns in resourcesaving processing of chromiumcontaining ore raw materials by solidphase reduction

Borysov

Hevko

Torubara

et al. 2020

EEJET

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Дослiджено фiзико-хiмiчнi властивостi продуктiв вуглецевотермiчного вiдновлення оксидної хромвмiсної рудної сировини. Це необхiдно для визначення параметрiв, що знижують втрати Cr при переробцi рудних матерiалiв i використаннi металiзованих хромвмiсних легуючих добавок у сталеплавильному виробництвi. Визначено, що пiдвищення температури обробки з 1250 K до 1450 K призвело до збiльшення прояву Cr 23 C 6 та (Cr, Fe) 7 C 3. При цьому дифракцiйнi максимуми Cr 2 O 3 вiдповiдали тенденцiї послаблення та пiсля обробки при 1450 K мали залишковий характер. Cr 3 C 2 на дифрактограмах провялявся лише пiсля обробки при 1250 K. Фаза металевого Cr прослiдковувалась в зразках пiсля обробки при 1350 K та 1450 K з пiдсиленням iнтенсивностi прояву при збiльшеннi температури нагрiвання. Визначено, що мiкроструктура продуктiв вiдновлення неоднорiдна з присутнiстю часток рiзного розмiру та хiмiчного складу. З пiдвищенням температури вiдновлення з 1250 K до 1350 K та 1450 K i розвитком вiдновних процесiв мало мiсце спiкання часток з утворенням губчастої мiкроструктури. Виявлено дiлянки, що характеризували включення i фази iз вмiстом Cr до 65,10 % мас., Fe-до 16,13 % мас. Також виявлено окремi локальнi дiлянки з частками з вiдносно високим вмiстом рудних домiшок та вуглецю. З отриманих результатiв дослiдження витiкає, що найбiльш прийнятною температурою для вiдновлення є 1450 K. В цьому випадку забезпечується вiдновлення з переважанням у фазовому складi Cr металевого та карбiдiв (Fe, Cr) 7 C 3 i Cr 23 C 6 вiдносно оксидної складової Cr 2 O 3. При цьому менший залишковий вмiст вуглецю обумовлений бiльш високою ефективнiстю дiї вiдновника порiвняно з iншими температурними режимами. Завдяки губчастiй мiкроструктурi стає можливим бiльш швидке розчинення, порiвняно iз стандартними феросплавами, при цьому реалiзується скорочення часу виплавки Ключовi слова: хромвмiсна оксидна рудна сировина, фазовий аналiз, вуглецевотермiя, карбiд, легування, вiдновлення

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Mineral resources: Geological scarcity, market price trends, and future generations

Cited by 167 publications

References 30 publications

The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity

The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity

社会经济发展对铜矿资源勘查驱动传导机制分析

Revealing new patterns in resourcesaving processing of chromiumcontaining ore raw materials by solidphase reduction

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Mineral resources: Geological scarcity, market price trends, and future generations

Cited by 167 publications

References 30 publications

The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity

The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity

社会经济发展对铜矿资源勘查驱动传导机制分析

Revealing new patterns in resource­saving processing of chromium­containing ore raw materials by solid­phase reduction

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Revealing new patterns in resourcesaving processing of chromiumcontaining ore raw materials by solidphase reduction