Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

Abstract

Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimate the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM_2.5 and O₃ in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). This is based upon high-resolution global model calculations that resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. Results indicate that 69% of the global population is exposed to an annual mean anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentration of >10 μg m⁻³ (WHO guideline) and 33% to > 25 μg m⁻³ (EU directive). We applied an epidemiological health impact function and find that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have been underestimated given that previous studies largely focused on the urban environment. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand/year (YLL ≈ 5.2 million/year), 186 thousand/year by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million/year) and 2.0 million/year by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million/year). The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1% yr⁻¹. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively) where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located

Particulate matter, air quality and climate: lessons learned and future needs

“…Children and elderly are the population subgroups most sensitive to PM exposure impacts. In 2005, PM 2.5 and ozone were responsible for 773 000 deaths from respiratory diseases, 186 000 deaths from lung cancer and 2 million deaths from cardiovascular diseases (Lelieveld et al, 2013). According to the World Health Organization, in 2012 air pollution was responsible for 7 million premature deaths, 3.7 million deaths from ambient air pollution and 4.3 million (2009) estimated 300 000 deaths per year in Europe due to primary PM 2.5 exposure and 245 000 due to secondary inorganic aerosol.…”

Dynamic Regression Model for Evaluating the Association Between Atmospheric Conditions and Deaths due to Respiratory Diseases in São Paulo, Brazil

“…These results are in agreement with the literature, which suggests the existence of a relationship between air pollution and mortality due to respiratory diseases. Studies have shown associations between exposure to classic pollutants (particulate matter, ozone, sulfur dioxide) and human health in general (Cakmak et al, 2011;Sicard et al, 2011;Lelieveld et al, 2013). Table 1 shows that the largest number of deaths occurred in the winter season.…”

“…The air constantly polluted aggravates the development of certain respiratory diseases, resulting in a group of symptoms affecting various organs such as the nose and throat, increasing cases of asthma and sinusitis (Lelieveld et al, 2013).…”

Long-term (2001–2012) concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and the impact on human health in Beijing, China

“…Since the population data are more accurate for the period 2010-2012, the sum of the premature mortality related to each disease and the corresponding ratio to the population section is shown in Table 1 We have compared the estimation of the mortality due to PM 2.5 with past studies. Lelieveld et al (2013) calculated megacity premature mortality due to air pollution and found that the per capita mortality for all ages attributable to PM 2.5 is 11.8 per 10 000 person-years in Beijing. Anenberg et al (2010) estimated the global premature mortality attributable to PM 2.5 .…”

“…Lelieveld et al (2013) No epidemiologic study has estimated the association of long-term exposure to direct measurements of PM 2.5 with mortality from chronic cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Asia and other developing and emerging countries where annual average PM 2.5 exposures can exceed 100 µg m −3 . Previously, the functions for PM 2.5 have been based on the relationship between relative risk (RR) and concentrations defined by epidemiology studies where a log-linear (Ostro, 2004) and a linear model (Cohen et al, 2004) were used to calculate RR.…”