Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions

Lorie, Mark; Neumann, James E.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert; Fant, Charles; Wobus, Cameron; Martinich, Jeremy; O’Grady, Megan; Gentile, Lauren

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2020.100233

Cited by 36 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…In doing so, they may significantly misestimate risk, such as when singlesector models of food production misrepresent the direction, magnitude, and spatial pattern of risk compared with analyses that consider cross-sectoral interactions. 12,16 However, for convenience and tractability, analysts and managers tend to break risk assessments into silos, 17 often taking a component-oriented, rather than interaction-oriented, view. 1 For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) typically divides its assessment into three separate working groups focused on (1) physical climate change; (2) climate impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation responses (by sector and region); and (3) emissions mitigation (by sector).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

et al. 2021

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

et al. 2021

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“…Here we choose to analyze three infrastructure sectors in a single paper in an effort to provide information useful in identifying vulnerable sectors and regions, as well to identify sectoral priorities for adaptation action. The analyses substantially update and expand on work previously published in the peer-reviewed literature (Chinowsky et al 2013(Chinowsky et al , 2017Neumann et al 2015aNeumann et al , 2015bLorie et al 2020; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2015, U.S. EPA 2017). In particular, the current analyses incorporate new scenarios that consider the effects of a "no adaptation" approach to infrastructure management and quantify costs in scenarios where adaptive measures are taken in response to climate change impacts ("reactive" adaptation) and in advance of impacts ("proactive" adaptation).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…The coastal analysis builds on a long-standing framework, the National Coastal Properties Model (NCPM; Lorie et al 2020;Neumann et al 2015b), which assesses SLR and SS risks to the existing footprint of coastal development. Since the last published description, modifications have been made to the NCPM.…”

Section: Coastal Propertymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Decision rules for adaptation to episodic flooding caused by SS, which rises as sea levels rise, were reformulated from Neumann et al (2015b) to enable a traditional cost-benefit test-these are described in further detail in Lorie et al (2020) and in the Supplementary Material for the NCPM. New rules compare the cost of different adaptation options within each cell to the expected reduction in costs that would result from those adaption options.…”

Section: Protection Decision Rulesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To identify where sea walls and elevated structures may already exist, we run the NCPM over an initiation period prior to the simulation. This technique is also called model "spin-up" and is often used in dynamic models to provide a consistent starting point for each simulation-spin-up was used in Lorie et al 2020). Model initiation allows for the most cost-effective protection during model initiation, with all options available independent of the adaptation scenario.…”

Section: Model Initiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development

Neumann¹,

Chinowsky

Helman

et al. 2021

Climatic Change

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Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the USA. Using models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to railroad, roads, and coastal properties under three infrastructure management response scenarios: No Adaptation; Reactive Adaptation, and Proactive Adaptation. Comparing damages under each of these potential responses provides strong support for facilitating effective adaptation in these three sectors. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and without adaptation, overall costs are projected to range in the $100s of billions annually by the end of this century. The first (reactive) tier of adaptation action, however, reduces costs by a factor of 10, and the second (proactive) tier reduces total costs across all three sectors to the low $10s of billions annually. For the rail and road sectors, estimated costs for Reactive and Proactive Adaptation scenarios capture a broader share of potential impacts, including selected indirect costs to rail and road users, and so are consistently about a factor of 2 higher than prior estimates. The results highlight the importance of considering climate risks in infrastructure planning and management.

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Systemic Financial Risk Arising from Residential Flood Losses

Thomson

Zeff

Kleiman

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Flood impacts to residential properties threaten the resilience of communities and the institutions that support them. These events can cause negative impacts to property-level balance sheets through uninsured damage and property value decreases, which in turn can increase the likelihood of mortgage default and property abandonment. To date, there have been limited attempts to quantify the magnitude and distribution of additional financial consequences that could arise from these processes following flood events. In this work, property-scale financial data, including property sales, mortgage originations, and insurance claims, are used within an analytical framework to quantify flood-related uninsured damages and property value decrease in order to estimate the financial risk that property owners, mortgage lenders, and local governments are exposed to via recovery decisions (i.e., default and/or abandonment). This framework is applied to residential properties in eastern North Carolina following Hurricane Florence (2018). Within the study area, Hurricane Florence generated $366M in observed insured losses and we estimate an additional $1.77B in balance sheet losses (i.e., uninsured damage and property value decrease). In addition, property owners, mortgage lenders, and local governments were exposed to an estimated $562M of risk from the increased likelihood of mortgage default and property abandonment. Areas with lower pre-event property values and lower rates of insurance purchase experienced significantly higher risk of mortgage default and abandonment. The method described provides more highly resolved estimates of how floods can drive systemic financial risk, information that can be useful in developing improved flood resilience strategies.

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Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions

Cited by 36 publications

References 55 publications

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development

Systemic Financial Risk Arising from Residential Flood Losses

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