Modeling infrastructure system interdependencies and socioeconomic impacts of failure in extreme events: emerging R&D challenges

Abstract

Greater urbanization does not only mean higher concentrations of population and economic activities, but also increasing complexity and infrastructure interdependencies in the delivery of critical urban services such as energy, water, transport and communication. This paper reviews the current literature in these areas and identifies critical research and development challenges from the perspective-and for the benefit-of key stakeholders, considering their primary decision goals and context. From this vantage point, the critical evaluation framework is extended to include a classification of disruptions and extreme events and an overview of infrastructure modeling approaches and broader socioeconomic impacts assessment methods. Mapping the range of modeling and assessment methods against different decision contexts, critical gaps in knowledge and tools are identified to support the latter. Deep uncertainties characterize the challenge as each major component in the information and decision-making chain-from the frequency and intensity of a disruptive event, to assessing the first-order and immediate impacts of an infrastructure failure, to estimating the nature, extent and impact of cascading failuresmultiplies the uncertainties. The emerging research challenges to deal with these interdependencies and uncertainties are discussed.

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

“…With it, the infrastructure increases as well. Infrastructure failures have wider impacts on the socioeconomic systems, and thus exhibit relevant interdependencies [81][82][83][84]. In economically active areas, floodplains are increasingly occupied by production facilities, as these require relatively flat compound areas for their construction that are not available in hilly areas [85].…”

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

“…Since floods are expected to increase due to climatic changes (Asadieh and Krakauer, 2015;Arnell and Gosling, 2016;Beniston et al, 2007;Bouwer, 2013;Fischer and Knutti, 2016;Millán, 2014;Pfahl et al, 2017;Rajczak et al, 2013;Scherrer et al, 2016), flood risk analyses and the management of extreme events will become even more relevant (Smolka, 2006;Yuan et al, 2017). Hence, insurance companies and governmental institutions are increasingly interested in quantifying flood risks, and especially in estimating the impacts of probable maximum floods leading to high cumulative losses (Burke et al, 2016;Morrill and Becker, 2017) or the destruction of critical infrastructure (Hasan and Foliente, 2015;Mechler et al, 2010;Michaelides, 2014). …”

Urban Hydroinformatics: Past, Present and Future

“…Cyber-physical modelling can help the sector manage emerging cyber-physical risks, especially in the context of digital twins. In the same vein, it is suggested that work on modelling cascading effects between water systems and other infrastructures may also move from the research environment [113] to the operational environment of the sector. The move may also involve other water and crisis management stakeholders at national and international levels.…”