Modeling Phenology, Water Status, and Yield Components of Three Portuguese Grapevines Using the STICS Crop Model

Fraga, Hélder; Costa, Ricardo; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Correia, Carlos M.; Dinis, Lia-Tânia; Gonçalves, Inês O.; Silvestre, José; Eiras-Dias, José Eduardo; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Santos, João A.

doi:10.5344/ajev.2015.15031

Cited by 53 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…). Nonetheless, in compliance with other studies using the STICS crop model, an overestimation of the yield values can be found (Valdes‐Gomez et al ., ; Fraga et al ., 2015a). These discrepancies between modelled and actual yields can be attributed to the use of a single variety (Pinot noir) in the modelling approach.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Grapevine modelling was based on the crop model STICS (Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard) (Brisson et al, 2008). This model, developed by the French National Institute for Agronomic Research (INRA), has been successfully applied to simulate a wide variety of crops (Coucheney et al, 2015) and is one of the few models that incorporates the necessary parameterizations for grapevine simulation (Garc ıa De Cortazar-Atauri, 2006;Valdes-Gomez et al, 2009;Fraga et al, 2015a). Furthermore, this model has previously been used in assessing the impacts of climate change on several other crops (Courault & Ruget, 2001;Gonzalez-Camacho et al, 2008;Brisson & Levrault, 2010).…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe

Fraga

Atauri

Malheiro

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

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Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980-2005) and future (2041-2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe

Fraga

Atauri

Malheiro

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

Self Cite

232

162

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As temperatures are a major driver of the grapevine development stages (Parker et al, 2013), significant warmings are expected to lead to earlier onsets (Bock et al, 2011;Chuine et al, 2004;Dalla Marta et al, 2010;Daux et al, 2011;Jones et al, 2005a;Molitor et al, 2014;Sadras and Petrie, 2011;Webb et al, 2011). Recent studies for Portugal isolated future projections for the phenological stages of 16 native varieties under RCP4.5 and 8.5 (Fraga et al, 2015;Fraga et al, 2016c;Malheiro et al, 2013). The results hint at earlier onsets of 2-5 days for budburst and flowering, and of 7-15 days for veraison until 2070, depending on the selected future scenario and variety.…”

Section: Impacts On Phenologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Viticulture in Portugal: A review of recent trends and climate change projections

et al. 2017

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Aim:The winemaking sector in Portugal is of major socio-economic relevance, significantly contributing to the national exports and sustaining many wine-related activities, including oenotourism. Portuguese viticultural regions present a wide range of edaphoclimatic conditions with remarkable regional specificities, thus contributing to the individuality of their wines. Owing to the strong influence of climate and weather factors on grapevines, climate change may drive significant impacts on Portuguese viticulture. Methods and results:Climatic projections for the next decades in Portugal highlight an overall warming and drying trend of the grapevine growing season, potentially resulting in modifications in phenology, growth, development, yields and eventually wine characteristics and typicity. Furthermore, the current viticultural suitability of each region is projected to undergo significant changes, suggesting a reshaping of the optimal conditions for viticulture throughout the country. In order to sustain high quality levels and affordable yield regularity, cost-effective, appropriate and timely adaptation measures must be implemented by the sector. Conclusion:The most recent scientific studies covering the potential impacts of climate change on Portuguese viticulture are herein presented.Significance and impact of the study: Possible adaptation measures against these threats are also discussed, foreseeing their integration into decision support systems by stakeholders and decision-makers.

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“…Under the SIAMVITIS project (Climate change in Viticulture: Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures) an initial application of this model was achieved, showing promising results (Coelho et al, 2013;Pinto, 2013). More recently, Fraga et al (2015), calibrated the STICS model for three of the most important Portuguese varieties (Aragonez, Touriga-Franca and Touriga-Nacional), obtaining a high model skill in the simulation of yield, phenology and water status.…”

Section: Representação Do Modelo Cultural Dinâmico Categorias Princimentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of crop modelling to portuguese viticulture: implementation and added-values for strategic planning

Costa

Fraga

Malheiro

et al. 2015

Ciência Téc. Vitiv.

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SUMMARYGrapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a very important crop in Portugal, where the viticultural sector plays a central role in the national economy. The present study provides a review of most relevant research on grapevine modelling, giving particular emphasis to its past and future applicability to Portuguese conditions. A brief overview of the national sector, as well as of the prevailing physical and biological environments and viticultural practices is provided. Further, the terroir concept is discussed in view of the main controlling factors of grapevine development. Several crop models, either statistical or dynamic, that have reliably simulated grapevine/vineyard parameters, such as phenology, yield and quality, are referred. Statistical models are based on statistically significant relationships between a number of predictors and a given grapevine parameter. Dynamic crop models simulate plant growth and development and holistically integrate crop phenotype, soil profiles, weather and climate data and management practices in their simulations. Dynamic crop models are then becoming important decision support systems in viticulture. Additionally, they allow testing the effects of soils, management decisions and weather on crops. However, only a few dynamic models can properly simulate grapevine performance. Several studies also apply crop models under future conditions to assess the detrimental climate change impacts on grapevines. These crop models can be either applied to real-time monitoring and short-range predictions or to develop long-term climate change projections for the Portuguese viticulture. These studies will represent important added-values for the competitiveness and future sustainability of the winemaking sector in Portugal. RESUMOA videira (Vitis vinifera L.) é uma cultura de grande relevo em Portugal, onde o sector vitivinícola desempenha um papel central na economia nacional. O presente estudo fornece uma revisão de pesquisas mais relevantes sobre a modelação da videira, dando especial ênfase à sua aplicabilidade às condições específicas portuguesas. É dada uma visão sucinta do sector nacional, bem como das condições físicas, biológicas e práticas vitivinícolas predominantes. O conceito de terroir é discutido tendo em conta os principais fatores condicionantes do desenvolvimento da videira. São referidos vários modelos de culturas, estatísticos e dinâmicos, que têm simulado com sucesso as características da videira/vinha, fenologia, produtividade e qualidade. Os modelos estatísticos são baseados em relações estatisticamente significativas entre um número de preditores e uma determinada característica da videira. Os modelos dinâmicos simulam o crescimento e desenvolvimento da planta de forma holística, integrando nas suas simulações o fenótipo da cultura, perfis de solo, dados meteorológicos e práticas culturais. Por este motivo, os modelos dinâmicos estão a tornar-se importantes sistemas de apoio à decisão em viticultura. Além disso, permitem prever os efeitos do solo, das práticas cul...

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Modeling Phenology, Water Status, and Yield Components of Three Portuguese Grapevines Using the STICS Crop Model

Cited by 53 publications

References 27 publications

Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe

Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe

Viticulture in Portugal: A review of recent trends and climate change projections

Application of crop modelling to portuguese viticulture: implementation and added-values for strategic planning

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