Modeling the human-induced spread of an aquatic invasive: The case of the zebra mussel

Tímár, Levente; Phaneuf, Daniel J.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.07.011

Cited by 36 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Accounting for such human introduction of freshwater species is not trivial though it can be achieved through gravity models based on interviews to calculate the probability of anglers' movements between lakes (e.g. Timar and Phaneuf 2009).…”

Section: Dispersal Model At High-risk Catchmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of bioclimatic models coupled with network analysis for risk assessment of the killer shrimp, Dikerogammarus villosus, in Great Britain

Gallardo

Errea²,

Aldridge

2011

Biol Invasions

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In this study we use a combination of techniques to assess the general risk of invasion by the aquatic invader Dikerogammarus villosus in Great Britain at multiple scales. First, bioclimatic models (Support Vector Machine algorithm) were used to identify regions showing the highest climatic match with the European range of the species, and that might be at highest risk of initial colonization if provided with propagules. The model showed that nearly 60% of Great Britain shows the minimum bioclimatic suitability for the species, particularly southern and eastern England. Afterwards, a Network Analysis was used to model the natural spatio-temporal spread of the killer shrimp in the Great Ouse River catchment (SE England), the first region invaded by this species. This model suggested that the northern part of the catchment, including two relevant Ramsar sites (Ouse Washes and Wicken fen) are at serious risk of being invaded in the short-term (\5 years). Taking into account the rapid spread of the killer shrimp in other European countries, its broad environmental tolerance, the high climate suitability of broad areas of Great Britain to the species, the current spread of other Ponto-Caspian species, and the high natural and artificial connectivity of the hydrological network, we conclude that D. villosus is very likely to continue its spread in Great Britain, dramatically affecting the native biodiversity. The multi-scale approach proposed in this study combines large-scale bioclimatic models with local-scale dispersal models, providing managers with a powerful spatial and temporal basis for informed decision-making.

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Section: Dispersal Model At High-risk Catchmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of bioclimatic models coupled with network analysis for risk assessment of the killer shrimp, Dikerogammarus villosus, in Great Britain

Gallardo

Errea²,

Aldridge

2011

Biol Invasions

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“…The RUM is a discrete choice model used extensively in the econometrics literature to predict the behaviour of recreationalists (Parsons ). This formulation has recently been applied to predicting the spread of invasive zebra mussels in Wisconsin (Timar & Phaneuf ) and in a simulation study of the spread, and management of Eurasion watermilfoil (Macpherson, Moore & Provencher ). In this model, boaters are assumed to behave as rational actors, maximizing their utility.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting invasions: alternative models of human‐mediated dispersal and interactions between dispersal network structure and Allee effects

Chivers

Leung

2012

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Summary1. Human-mediated dispersal has been shown to be the most important vector for the spread of invasive species, yet there has been little evaluation of alternative models of dispersal in terms of differences in their predictions of invasion patterns. Moreover, no analyses have been attempted to elucidate the potential interaction between alternative models of humanmediated dispersal and population dynamical characteristics, such as Allee effects, which are central to the probability of an invasion. 2. Two prominent models in the literature which have previously been employed to predict human movement patterns are explored: (i) gravity models, which use the attractiveness of and distance to a location to predict travel patterns, and (ii) random utility models, which assume that individuals decide where to travel by maximizing the benefits that they receive according to some partially observable function of individual and site characteristics. 3. While distinction is often drawn between them in the literature, we demonstrate that these two approaches can be reduced to alternative functional forms describing the trip-taking decisions of individuals. 4. Each model was empirically parameterized using a survey of recreational boaters in Ontario, Canada. Within each model, both boater-and site-specific characteristics were important and the functional form provided by the gravity model was significantly better at capturing the behaviour of recreationalboaters. 5. Synthesis and applications. The dispersal and establishment of species into novel habitats are central components of the invasion process and of quantitative risk assessments. However, predictions are dependent on the estimated spatial structure of the dispersal network and its potential interactions with species characteristics. This study demonstrates that Allee effects can interact with dispersal network structure to significantly alter predicted spread rates and that the consequences of these interactions manifest differently at the system and site levels. This modelling framework can be used to inform management interventions aimed at modifying human-mediated dispersal to reduce the spread of invasive species.

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“…The rapid expansion of the zebra mussel, and its important ecological and socio-economic effects (Lee et al, 2007;Adams and Lee, 2012), have led to numerous studies, most of them focused on the study of the biology and ecology of the species, geographical dispersion and methods to eradicate or control the species (Wolfram, 1994;Schneider et al, 1998;Morales et al, 2006;Timar and Phaneuf, 2009;Hallstan et al, 2010;Strayer, 2009;Higgins and Vander Zanden, 2010;Palau et al, 2010;Strayer et al, 2010;Sanz-Ronda et al, 2013). To the contrary, works describing variations in zebra mussel population over time at a single site are less abundant (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Application of a computational model for complex fluvial ecosystems: The population dynamics of zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha as a case study

Colomer

Margalida

Valencia

et al. 2014

Ecological Complexity

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A B S T R A C TThe potential and adaptive flexibility of population dynamic P-systems (PDP) to study population dynamics suggests that they may be suitable for modelling complex fluvial ecosystems, characterized by a composition of dynamic habitats with many variables that interact simultaneously. Using as a model a reservoir occupied by the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, we designed a computational model based on P systems to study the population dynamics of larvae, in order to evaluate management actions to control or eradicate this invasive species. The population dynamics of this species was simulated under different scenarios ranging from the absence of water flow change to a weekly variation with different flow rates, to the actual hydrodynamic situation of an intermediate flow rate. Our results show that PDP models can be very useful tools to model complex, partially desynchronized, processes that work in parallel. This allows the study of complex hydroecological processes such as the one presented, where reproductive cycles, temperature and water dynamics are involved in the desynchronization of the population dynamics both, within areas and among them.The results obtained may be useful in the management of other reservoirs with similar hydrodynamic situations in which the presence of this invasive species has been documented.2014 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Modeling the human-induced spread of an aquatic invasive: The case of the zebra mussel

Cited by 36 publications

References 18 publications

Application of bioclimatic models coupled with network analysis for risk assessment of the killer shrimp, Dikerogammarus villosus, in Great Britain

Application of bioclimatic models coupled with network analysis for risk assessment of the killer shrimp, Dikerogammarus villosus, in Great Britain

Predicting invasions: alternative models of human‐mediated dispersal and interactions between dispersal network structure and Allee effects

Application of a computational model for complex fluvial ecosystems: The population dynamics of zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha as a case study

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