Modeling the Innovative Activity of Hierarchical Systems: Assessing Diffusion of Innovations and Economic Effect of the Existing Potential and Results

Манойленко, О. В.; Sergienko, Olena; Gaponenko, Olga

doi:10.32983/2222-0712-2020-1-312-324

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Melnikova (2015) analyzes structural shifts in the regional economy that lead to disparities. Manoilenko et al (2020) consider modelling hierarchical systems, including the regional level, and Brumnik et al (2014) and Klebanova et al (2014) predict economic processes at the regional level.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models for assessing crisis dynamics in disparities of Ukraine’s regional economy to ensure the economic security of regions

Shevchenko

Варналій

Kharlamova

et al. 2023

Journal of International Studies

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The increase in the unevenness of indicators of regional socio-economic development in Ukraine is causing changes in regional economic security, in addition to the deterioration of national welfare. Therefore, there is a need to develop new theoretical and practical approaches for assessing such disparities and forecasting their dynamics. In this article, a toolkit for modelling crises and catastrophes in disparities of regional development is presented, using the example of Ukraine. The purpose of this study is to create models that assess the crisis dynamics in regional disparities in Ukraine, in order to develop tools for ensuring economic security in the region. To achieve this purpose, the following tasks have been identified: to evaluate convergent-divergent processes and the long-term interaction of regional disparity indicators; to simulate possible crises and catastrophes in various spheres of socio-economic development of regions according to the levels of their disparities; and to demonstrate the mutual dependence between disparities of the regions and levels of their economic security. The result of the crisis dynamic assessment is a set of predictive models of possible catastrophes that may occur in Ukraine's regions. This allows for obtaining reliable results for the qualitative analysis of stability factors of disparities in the socio-economic system, accounting for different time intervals that determine the peculiarities of the country's development. The array of constructed models is an effective tool for researching crisis processes in the dynamics of disparity indicators, as they allow for identifying and more thoroughly investigating non-linear cyclical processes in regional economic development, as well as predicting changes in levels of economic security. Such a toolkit allows for the development of a strategy for balanced regional and country development, and for ensuring regional economic security.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models for assessing crisis dynamics in disparities of Ukraine’s regional economy to ensure the economic security of regions

Shevchenko

Варналій

Kharlamova

et al. 2023

Journal of International Studies

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“…Paper by Melnikova (2015) examines structural shifts in regional economy that lead to disparities. The dynamics of regional development is predicted and modeled in a number of works, among which it is worth noting Manoilenko et al (2020), which considers the modeling of hierarchical systems, including the regional level, and the works of Klebanova et al (2012, Brumnik et al (2014), , devoted to the forecasting of economic processes at the regional level. Considerable attention is paid to the latest tools regulating development of regions and communities, in particular, in the work by Shebanin et al (2021).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regulation of Dynamic Processes in the Indicators of Disproportions of Ukrainian Regions: Operational and Logistic Approach

Shevchenko

Шевчук²,

Polovynko³

2022

BJES

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Indicators of socio-economic development of the regions of Ukraine demonstrate a tendency to increase disproportions, which are significantly intensified in the conditions of military operations. In addition to the deterioration of performance indicators, this trend leads to the fragmentation of the country's economic space. Regulation of regional development does not contribute to the reduction of disparities, in particular, due to shortcomings in the assessment, interpretation of indicators of disparities and modeling of their dynamics, which leads to the definition of unrealistic goals of regulation. Taking into account the need to ensure the connection between short-term and long-term planning of regional development, the purpose of the article is to develop theoretical and empirical foundations aimed at regulating dynamic processes in the indicators of regional development disproportions. To achieve the goal, the following tasks were chosen: to analyze the models of convergent-divergent processes of regional development imbalances, to build models of long-term interaction of indicators of imbalances in the spheres of life, to determine the basis for assessing the crisis dynamics of regional indicators. Methodology. To regulate the development of regions, a model of long-term interaction of indicators of disproportions in various spheres has been developed. The process component of the study of dynamic processes in the indicators of regional disproportions and forecasting of crisis situations in the spheres of regional activity, which covers the tasks, tools and main results of the study, has been formed. The paper investigates the long-run interaction of inequality indicators in different areas using econometric dynamic vector autoregressive and error correction models (VAR&ECM). This makes it possible to identify and predict non-stationary impulse processes in general, to identify trends relevant to individual phases of activity, to identify the relationship and interdependence of the trajectory of imbalances. The research tools are designed to solve a set of tasks on the regulation of imbalances. The originality of the article lies in the application of the modeling results in the form of interrelationships of disproportions for different time intervals in the formation of a set of programs and preventive measures to manage regional development disproportions. This also enhances the practical significance of the study. Practical implication. The data obtained as a result of the study of the dynamic processes of disproportion indicators can be taken into account in solving a set of tasks to regulate the disproportions of regional development, developing a set of measures for the implementation of regional strategies, financial and budgetary regulation of regional development, determining budget expenditures for solving problems arising from disproportions.

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“…[8][9][10][11], присвячені прогнозуванню економічних процесів на рівні регіонів; М. В. Мельникової [12] стосовно структурних зрушень економіки регіонів, що призводять до диспропорцій; В. Ю. Дорош та І. М. Пушкарчук [13], у яких аналізується просторовий вимір макроекономічних явищ; О. В. Манойленко, О. Є. Гапоненко та ін. [14] стосовно моделювання діяльності ієрархічних систем, у тому числі регіонального рівня. Незважаючи на ряд ґрунтовних робіт щодо оцінювання динаміки диспропорцій та інструментів її регулювання, слід вказати на важливість розкриття конвергентних процесів у показниках диспропорцій в довгостроковому вимірі, що обумовлено самою економічною природою диспропорцій та становить вагомий чинник динаміки диспропорцій.…”

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Evaluation of Disparities in the Socio-Economic Development of the Regions of Ukraine on the Basis of Convergent-Divergent Processes

Zakharii,

Shevchenko,

Kuzmynchuk

2023

BulEcon

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Disparities of socioeconomic indices of Ukraine's regions are a scientific problem and a practical task that should be solved on a strategic horizon. Current regulation of regional development does not take into account the dynamic processes of disparity indicators in the long-term period, which leads to an incorrect definition of disparities regulation goals. The purpose of this article can be stated as the working out of a system for evaluating the disparities indicators, and disparities' dynamic shows the necessity to use a convergent-divergent approach. Convergent-divergent processes were analyzed for the following groups of indicators (demographic, productive, natural and ecological, foreign economic, and structural disparities) in 2007–2021 and for three classes of regions: with balanced, restrained, and unrestrained disparities. The analytical model for convergent- divergent processes of territorial development disparities is based on econometric models of assessing spatial β-convergence. It involves analysis of absolute and conditional convergence of regional development; assessment of convergence accounting indicators of regional disparities; verification of the hypothesis about the strengthening of disparities. In particular, obtained results of absolute convergence indicate that regions with unrestrained disparities of some spheres do not tend to grow faster than classes of regions with balanced disparities of the same spheres since even a lower level of disparities does not guarantee a higher rate of disparities reduction. Therefore, the convergence of disparities is a very long process. Results indicate the strengthening of divergent trends in the uneven development of regions and can be used to determine vulnerable areas with disparities in regions, and besides, this model is considered to be a decision-making supportive tool for the reduction of interregional disparities.

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Modeling the Innovative Activity of Hierarchical Systems: Assessing Diffusion of Innovations and Economic Effect of the Existing Potential and Results

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Models for assessing crisis dynamics in disparities of Ukraine’s regional economy to ensure the economic security of regions

Models for assessing crisis dynamics in disparities of Ukraine’s regional economy to ensure the economic security of regions

Regulation of Dynamic Processes in the Indicators of Disproportions of Ukrainian Regions: Operational and Logistic Approach

Evaluation of Disparities in the Socio-Economic Development of the Regions of Ukraine on the Basis of Convergent-Divergent Processes

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