Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

Hanewinkel, Marc; Hummel, Susan; Cullmann, Dominik A.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.08.021

Cited by 74 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…They also provide a science-based rationale for forest management decisions [48] based on the adaptation approach to forest ecosystems [49]. Forest management adaptation strategies [50] aimed at sustainability must take into account a range of economic [51] and social aspects [52][53][54]. There are many uncertainties concerning the impact of climate change on European forests [6], so another goal of this study is to highlight the importance of the somewhat neglected biogeographical models, rooted in the concept of the forest vegetation zones.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of Climate Conditions in Forest Vegetation Zones as a Support Tool for Forest Management Strategy in European Beech Dominated Forests

Machar

Vlčková

Buček

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:The regional effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in the temperate climate zone of Europe can be modelled as shifts of forest vegetation zones in the landscape, northward and to higher elevations. This study applies a biogeographical model of climate conditions in the forest vegetation zones of the Central European landscape, in order to predict the impact of future climate change on the most widespread tree species in European deciduous forests-the European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The biogeographical model is supported by a suite of software applications in the GIS environment. The model outputs are defined as a set of conditions -climate scenario A1B by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for a forecast period, for a specified geographical area and with ecological conditions appropriate for the European beech, which provide regional scenarios for predicted future climatic conditions in the context of the European beech's environmental requirements. These predicted changes can be graphically visualized. The results of the model scenarios for regional climate change show that in the Czech Republic from 2070 onwards, optimal growing conditions for the European beech will only exist in some parts of those areas where it currently occurs naturally. Based on these results, it is highly recommended that the national strategy for sustainable forest management in the Czech Republic be partly re-evaluated. Thus, the presented biogeographical model of climate conditions in forest vegetation zones can be applied, not only to generate regional scenarios of climate change in the landscape, but also as a support tool for the development of a sustainable forest management strategy.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of Climate Conditions in Forest Vegetation Zones as a Support Tool for Forest Management Strategy in European Beech Dominated Forests

Machar

Vlčková

Buček

et al. 2017

Forests

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“…However, with optimized thinnings and initial stand density the value of stand management adaptation is remarkable. This finding has far-reaching consequences when considering the optimal tree species selection in a changing climate (Hanewinkel et al 2010;Hanewinkel et al 2012). We note that without the careful stand management optimization for each considered tree species, these predictions over large geographical areas fail to capture the full adaptation potential.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…by Hanewinkel et al (2010;. Furthermore, the study by Guo and Costello (2013) compare this "adaptation of forestry on the extensive margin" to "the adaptation on the intensive margin", the latter denoting the adaptation of forest management while maintaining species selection fixed.…”

Section: Economics Of Forest Management Adaptation To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

On the economics of boreal Scots pine management under climate change

Pihlainen¹

2017

Diss. For.

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To be presented, with the permission of the Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry of the University of Helsinki, for public criticism in room K110, C-building, Latokartanonkaari 5, Helsinki on 15 th December 2017, at 12 o'clock noon. This dissertation aims to develop the economics of even-aged Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) management. In our economic-ecological model, a detailed process-based forest growth model is connected to an economic description of stand management. The process-based growth model is able to describe forest growth in management regimes and climate conditions previously not experienced, because it applies causal relationships and feedbacks instead of statistical correlations. Optimization is carried out with an effective general pattern search algorithm. The optimized variables include rotation length, initial stand density, and the timing, type, intensity, and number of thinnings. Essential model details include the quality pricing of timber and detailed harvesting cost functions. Integration of carbon subsidy systems into the model enables the determination of the economically optimal carbon storage with various carbon price levels. Finally, the growth model is extended to include a direct link between climate change and tree growth, to optimize stand management in a changing climate.The dissertation thesis is composed of a summary section and three articles, which produce a coherent and comprehensive picture on the optimal stand management of Scots pine in the relevant growth conditions of Fennoscandia. The results demonstrate the necessity to simultaneously optimize all stand management variables, and the advantages of having a detailed model. Optimal stand management is shown to be sensitive to growth conditions, interest rate, and management objective, along with the design of the carbon subsidy system and the subsidy level. The stand-level analysis is additionally extended to the national level, and adapting forest management was found to potentially be a cost-efficient method for carbon abatement in Finland. Furthermore, the optimal adaptation of stand management in a changing climate remarkably improves the economic surplus from forestry.

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“…They can be divided into cause-oriented or effect-oriented measures (Hanewinkel et al 2010;Hanewinkel et al 2011). Effect-oriented risk handling measures aim at reducing the amount of damage but do not reduce the probability of damage, while cause-oriented measures aim either at avoiding damage by abandoning risk-prone activities (risk avoidance) or at reducing the probability of damage by adopting preventive measures (risk prevention).…”

Section: Definitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An economic comparison of risk handling measures against Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum in the Landes de Gascogne Forest

Brunette

Caurla

2016

Annals of Forest Science

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Abstract• Key message Phytosanitary risks are an increasing threat for forest, particularly due to climate change. Risk handling measures are effective economic strategies to manage such risks, so that Economics may provide relevant methodology to address this new challenge.• Context Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum are two phytosanitary risks generating increasing damage in the Landes de Gascogne Forest.• Aims We provide an economic comparison of different existing risk handling measures against Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum.• Methods We use the Land Expectation Value, i.e., Faustmann criteria, to compare the different scenarios.• Results We find that for Hylobius abietis, chemical treatment and fallow seem to be economically preferable to the absence of risk handling measure. For Heterobasidion Handling Editor: Marc HanewinkelContribution of the co-authors The two co-authors supervised the internship of Alexandre Gourdy that provided the preliminary version of the article. The manuscript was written by the two coauthors. Marielle Brunette focused more on the section dedicated to Hylobius abietis while Sylvain Caurla provided the analysis for Heterobasidion annosum. Marielle BrunetteMarielle.Brunette@nancy.inra.fr Sylvain Caurla Sylvain.Caurla@nancy.inra.fr 1 LEF, AgroParisTech, INRA, 54000 Nancy, France annosum, we show that local stump removal is always preferable to total stump removal and chemical treatment. Local stump removal should be preferred to fallow when contamination occurs during the second thinning. Finally, our results indicate that fallow is always preferable to chemical treatment.• Conclusion Beyond the specificities of the case study, the paper proposes a methodology to analyze such a problematic.

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Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

Cited by 74 publications

References 31 publications

Modelling of Climate Conditions in Forest Vegetation Zones as a Support Tool for Forest Management Strategy in European Beech Dominated Forests

Modelling of Climate Conditions in Forest Vegetation Zones as a Support Tool for Forest Management Strategy in European Beech Dominated Forests

On the economics of boreal Scots pine management under climate change

An economic comparison of risk handling measures against Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum in the Landes de Gascogne Forest

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