Modelling and optimal control analysis of Lassa fever disease

Peter, Olumuyiwa James; Abioye, Adesoye Idowu; Oguntolu, Festus Abiodun; Owolabi, Titilayo Abimbola; Ajisope, Michael Oyelami; Zakari, Abdullaziz Glabe; Shaba, Timilehin Gideon

doi:10.1016/j.imu.2020.100419

Cited by 44 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Based on the suggestions by Bakare et al and the WHO guidelines, this work presents an optimal control theory model for the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever in the presence of control measures such as avoiding hunting of rodents, early treatment and isolation, proper handling of food, rodent control, the wearing of protective clothing when caring for the sick and avoiding contacts with rodents. This is different from other works on Lassa fever as it incorporates a virus concentration compartment, a periodic rodent population, [4,3] and proper handling of food as an additional control measure to the controls investigated by Peter et al [11], Onah et al [12] and Ibrahim et al [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Although, Peter et al [11], Onah et al [12] and Ibrahim et al [3] presented an optimal control model of Lassa fever but the virus concentration compartment and periodic rodent population are not considered in their works which is the novelty of this paper. Virus concentration in the environment is considered in this paper due to the faecal droppings and urine discharge by the rodents.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Applying optimal control to infectious disease such as Lassa fever provides important information to public health specialists on how the implementation of control measures minimizes the spread of Lassa fever in the population. Reference literature on infectious diseases that have used the optimal control theory include [13,14,11,12,15,16,17,18]. Based on the suggestions by Bakare et al and the WHO guidelines, this work presents an optimal control theory model for the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever in the presence of control measures such as avoiding hunting of rodents, early treatment and isolation, proper handling of food, rodent control, the wearing of protective clothing when caring for the sick and avoiding contacts with rodents.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An optimal control model for the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever

Madubueze

Chazuka

2022

Preprint

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In this paper, a mathematical model for Lassa fever transmission dynamics with rodent logistic growth is developed and analysed. The stability analysis of the autonomous system of the model is presented. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters is performed using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) technique. The non-autonomous model is further analysed for stability of disease-free periodic equilibrium(DFPE) in terms of reproduction number ratio, $R_{0t}.$ It shown that DFPE is locally asymptotically stable when $R_{0t}<1$ and unstable if $R_{0t}>1$. Additionally, the optimal control model is formulated with five control measures namely; personal protective equipment and avoiding hunting of rodents, proper handling of food, treatment and isolation, cleaning and disinfecting the environment, and rodent control. Simulations of the optimal control model show that the combined implementation of the five control measures reduce Lassa fever spread in the population. However, when there is limited resources to implement the five control measures, three or four combined control measures can be implemented provided that proper handle of food is among the combined control measures.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An optimal control model for the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever

Madubueze

Chazuka

2022

Preprint

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“…As credited to Lenhart and Workman [ 73 ], the method of forward-backward sweep has been explored extensively by many researchers as in [ 74 – 76 ] to solve the optimality system of optimal control models numerically. Hence, we consider the method to solve the COVID-19 ( 1 ) and the control system ( 38 ).…”

Section: Model Application With Numerical Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Analysis and Optimal Control Model of COVID-19

Nana-Kyere

Boateng

Jonathan

et al. 2022

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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COVID-19 remains the concern of the globe as governments struggle to defeat the pandemic. Understanding the dynamics of the epidemic is as important as detecting and treatment of infected individuals. Mathematical models play a crucial role in exploring the dynamics of the outbreak by deducing strategies paramount for curtailing the disease. The research extensively studies the SEQIAHR compartmental model of COVID-19 to provide insight into the dynamics of the disease by underlying tailored strategies designed to minimize the pandemic. We first studied the noncontrol model’s dynamic behaviour by calculating the reproduction number and examining the two nonnegative equilibria’ existence. The model utilizes the Castillo-Chavez method and Lyapunov function to investigate the global stability of the disease at the disease-free and endemic equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis was carried on to determine the impact of some parameters on R 0 . We further examined the COVID model to determine the type of bifurcation that it exhibits. To help contain the spread of the disease, we formulated a new SEQIAHR compartmental optimal control model with time-dependent controls: personal protection and vaccination of the susceptible individuals. We solved it by utilizing Pontryagin’s maximum principle after studying the dynamical behaviour of the noncontrol model. We solved the model numerically by considering different simulation controls’ pairing and examined their effectiveness.

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“…It is often used in the control of the spread of most infectious diseases for which either vaccine or treatment is available. For COVID – 19, some researchers considered only optimal control to their models [52] , [53] , [54] and some of them used only fractional order model [55] , [56] , [57] , [58] . In this paper we considered fractional order model and we incorporated optimal control.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%