Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029

Abstract

While ensuring employment opportunities is critical for global progress and stability, workers are now subject to several disruptive trends, including automation, rapid changes in technology and skill requirements, and transitions to low-carbon energy production. Yet, these trends seem almost insignificant compared to labor impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While much has been written about the pandemic’s short-term impacts, this study analyzes anticipated long-term impacts on the labor force of 2029 by comparing original 2029 labor projections to special COVID-adjusted projections recently published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Results show that future demand for nearly every type of labor skill and knowledge will increase, while the nature of work shifts from physical to more cognitive activities. Of the nearly three million jobs projected to disappear by 2029 due to COVID, over 91% are among workers without a bachelor’s degree. Among workers with a degree demand shifts primarily from business-related degrees to computer and STEM degrees. Results further show that the socialness of labor, which is important for both innovation and productivity, increases in many more industries than it decreases. Finally, COVID will likely accelerate the adoption of teleworking and slightly decrease the rate of workforce automation. These impacts, combined with a shift to more cognitive worker activities, will likely impact the nature of workforce health and safety with less focus on physical injuries and more on illnesses related to sedentary lifestyles. Overall, results suggest that future workers will need to engage more often in training and skill acquisition, requiring life-long learning and skill maintenance strategies.

Job Automation and Concerns During the COVID-19 Pandemic Among Middle and Low-Income US Adults

“…More than half of the participants reported that their employer changed their job in some way during the pandemic, which is not surprising given the unique COVID-19 social distancing measures implemented across industries impacting employment and wages 12–14 . Our results revealed that 19.1% of participants reported that their jobs were entirely or partially automated during the COVID-19 pandemic consistent with increased demand for job automation in various sectors during the pandemic 15,16 . The Pew Research Center recently surveyed Americans regarding job automation and found that approximately 48% of participants reported that job automation in the workplace has mostly hurt American workers 17 .…”

Immigrant Legal Status among Essential Frontline Workers in the United States during the COVID-19 Pandemic Era

“…Second, COVID-19 has changed aspects of the labor force and the economy in important ways that necessitate reassessing prepandemic measures of the workplace. Specifically, emerging evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic will result in long-term changes to the US labor market, providing working arrangements that offer more flexibility and remote-work opportunities primarily for skilled workers (Shutters 2021). In light of these changes, pre-pandemic surveys measuring a workers' ability to work remotely and their proximity to others during work may no longer accurately reflect circumstances faced by workers in many occupations.…”

Modelling the COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on Employees’ Health and Performance: A PLS-SEM Mediation Approach

“…As employees, people felt even more the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic because there were multiple changes in terms of work. In this sense, studies show that this pandemic has had an unprecedented influence on the labor market [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. In this regard, Tušl, Brauchli, Kerksieck, and Bauer [31] believe that during the pandemic working conditions have deteriorated and employees are more likely to have mental health problems, such as depression, stress, and anxiety.…”