Modelling of a diffusive Lotka-Volterra-System: the climate-induced shifting of tundra and forest realms in North-America

Jesse, Klemens

doi:10.1016/s0304-3800(99)00126-x

Cited by 13 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…First simple migration models have been developed (Chave, 1999;Collingham et al, 1996;Easterling et al, 2001). However, these models are either confined to a few species (Collingham et al, 1996;Jesse, 1999) or to relatively small regions (Chave, 1999;Easterling et al, 2001) or their description of the dispersal is rather rule-based than mechanistic (He et al, 1999). The presented local study shows the potential of patch models such as FORCLIM or its much faster distribution-based version DISC-FORM (Lischke et al, 1998b) for more realistic migration studies, given reliable independent climate input data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Lischke¹,

Lotter

Fischlin³

2002

Ecological Modelling

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Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Wü rm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Wü rm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Lischke¹,

Lotter

Fischlin³

2002

Ecological Modelling

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“…For asymmetric competition, a hard ecotone that is subject to hysteresis is formed. Jesse (1999) applied this approach specifically to the forest-tundra ecotone and found that ecotone movement was much slower than that predicted by steady-state models. This model does not apply to simulations based on the parabolic temperature response function, because in such a model the species are unable to grow in each other's zones rather than being excluded by competition.…”

Section: Ecotone Response: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest ecotone response to climate change: sensitivity to temperature response functional forms

Loehle¹

2000

Revue canadienne de recherche forestière

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Past simulation studies using a variety of models have generally agreed that climatic warming could have adverse effects on forests, including large-scale diebacks in some regions and drastic range shrinkages of many species. These effects should be most evident at biome transition zones. Other studies have pointed out, however, that past models have used a parabolic temperature response function that is based on geographic range limits rather than functional responses or data and that this parabolic model could exaggerate dieback effects. A new model is proposed for growing degree-days temperature response, which is asymptotic rather than parabolic. In this new model, tree height growth rate increases and then levels off with increasing growing degree-days. Species from more southern regions have a higher asymptote. It is shown that this model can be derived from the integration of a parabolic growth response to temperature over a year-long sinusoidal temperature regime. The SORTIE forest simulation model was modified to incorporate this response function. An ecotonal region was simulated under a warming scenario. The traditional parabolic temperature response model produced a wide zone of dieback following warming. In contrast, the new asymptotic response function produced no dieback and a stable ecotone that migrated north at <100 m/100 years. Résumé : Des études antérieures de simulation utilisant différents modèles arrivent généralement à la même conclusion que le réchauffement du climat pourrait avoir des effets néfastes sur les forêts, incluant des dépérissements à grande échelle et de fortes réductions de l'aire de répartition de plusieurs espèces. Ces effets devraient se manifester surtout dans les zones de transition des biomes. D'autres études cependant ont souligné le fait que les modèles antérieurs utilisaient une courbe parabolique de croissance en fonction de la température qui est basée sur les limites géographiques de l'aire de répartition plutôt que sur des données ou des réactions fonctionnelles et que ce modèle parabolique pouvait exagérer les effets de dépérissement. Cet article propose un nouveau modèle de croissance asymptotique plutôt que parabolique qui est fonction de la température exprimée en degrés-jours de croissance. Dans ce nouveau modèle, le taux de croissance en hauteur des arbres augmente puis plafonne avec l'augmentation des degrés-jours de croissance. Les espèces des régions plus au sud ont une asymptote plus élevée. On démontre que ce modèle peut être dérivé à partir de l'intégration d'une courbe de croissance parabolique en fonction de la température pour un régime sinusoïdal de température sur une période d'un an. Le modèle de simulation SORTIE utilisé en foresterie a été modifié pour y intégrer cette fonction de croissance. Une région écotone a été simulée en adoptant un scénario de réchauffement. Le modèle parabolique traditionnel de croissance en fonction de la température produit une large zone de dépérissement suite au réchauffement. Par contre, la nouvelle fonction de...

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“…One definition of ecological hysteresis considers how external conditions can induce different changes in state and that these changes are conditional on the state of the system and direction of external change, that there is a linear response over time (Litzow and Hunsicker, 2016;Li et al, 2019). Another definition considers to how resistant or slow a system is to change than might be expected (Jesse, 1999;Loehle, 2000;van Nes and Scheffer, 2005). Yet, another definition of ecological hysterisis considers asymmetrical and opposing responses to the same climate factor (Da Silveira Lobo Sternberg, 2001;Zhang et al, 2003).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Determining Population-Level Vulnerability to Climate: Evidence for Growth Hysteresis in Chamaecyparis thyoides Along Its Contiguous Latitudinal Distribution

Pederson

Leland

Bishop

et al. 2020

Front. For. Glob. Change

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The impact of ecological and climatological factors on individual organisms over time and space is inherently complex and creates substantial uncertainty about how climate change will influence the global biosphere. To understand some of this complexity, we investigated the factors influencing individual growth of Chamaecyparis thyoides over 61 years within 18 populations across the ca 1500 km and 11 degrees of latitude. We then applied a vulnerability framework to understand how the variability of tree growth response to climate varies between populations and regions across our network. Surprisingly, we found the growth of trees in the central portion of our network responded more synchronously to warming and drought than trees in the southern end of our network, suggesting greater vulnerability in the central populations with continued warming. Our analyses and framework approach revealed substantial complexity in growth responses to climate within and between populations. We found potential resiliency within all populations, but higher inter-population than intrapopulation variability in response to climate. We found that latitude was an important proxy for the growth response to temperatures during the non-growing season and spring, but that ecosystem structure can modify the growth response and vulnerability to drought during the summer. The range of growth responses to warming is greater in the southern populations than in more northernly populations. This asymmetrical distribution of growth response across our study network provides evidence for a kind of ecological hysteresis, more southerly populations could be more resilient with warming. Despite the fact that this species primarily lives in wetlands, we found drought stress to be an important constraint on growth. Our study and analyses help to explain the disparities between forecasts of how climatic change might impact tree species and ecosystems over space.

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Modelling of a diffusive Lotka-Volterra-System: the climate-induced shifting of tundra and forest realms in North-America

Cited by 13 publications

References 23 publications

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Forest ecotone response to climate change: sensitivity to temperature response functional forms

A Framework for Determining Population-Level Vulnerability to Climate: Evidence for Growth Hysteresis in Chamaecyparis thyoides Along Its Contiguous Latitudinal Distribution

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